- 1 Atalanta vs Pafos: Sarri’s side return to Europe against a visitor that goes quiet away from home
- 2 Atalanta: Krstovic back among the goals as Sarri looks for a run
- 3 Pafos: Lele in form, but the away record takes some explaining
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Atalanta vs Pafos
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atalanta vs Pafos: Sarri’s side return to Europe against a visitor that goes quiet away from home 
Pafos have played three away games in Europe this season. They’ve scored once. That single number frames Thursday’s Conference League opener in Bergamo better than anything else, with kick-off set for 21:00 Paris time.
Atalanta come into the league phase as the highest-ranked club in the whole competition. They’re also a side that’s spent the last month working out who they are under Maurizio Sarri, with three straight defeats before the international break and a reassuring win straight after it.
The data paints a specific picture here. Three wins to start the season, then losses to Roma, Cagliari and Juventus, then a 3-1 win over Venezia on Monday. Atalanta led that one 3-0 inside the first half-hour.
Pafos are no soft touch on paper. They reached the last 16 of this competition on their European debut in 2024-25 and played in the Champions League league phase last season. But their trips this autumn have produced a 2-0 defeat at Hajduk Split, a 1-0 loss at Salzburg and a 1-1 draw at Dinamo City.
The market agrees with the home side. Atalanta are priced at 1.36, the draw at 5.19 and Pafos at 9.05. The question isn’t really who wins, it’s whether Pafos can find a way to score.
Atalanta: Krstovic back among the goals as Sarri looks for a run 
Nikola Krstovic scored twice and set up another against Venezia. That’s the performance Sarri needed from his centre-forward, and it should earn him the start on Thursday.
The alternative is Gianluca Scamacca, who has one goal in five Serie A appearances and two in all competitions. Not the numbers of a man forcing his way into the side. Krstovic’s form makes the decision straightforward for Sarri.
Defensively, there are gaps to fill. Odilon Kossounou has a hamstring problem, Isak Hien is out with a thigh injury and Kamaldeen Sulemana is sidelined with a knee issue. Losing two centre-backs at once is a real test of depth, though Giorgio Scalvini and Berat Djimsiti-era replacements like Kristensen and Kolasinac give Sarri enough cover against this opponent.
The three-game losing run makes for uncomfortable reading. Roma 2-1, Cagliari 2-1 at home, Juventus 2-0. But two of those came against Champions League-level opposition, and the reaction against Venezia was emphatic.
Atalanta conceded just before half-time on Monday, a soft goal when the game was already won. Sarri won’t have liked it. Against a Pafos side that’s drawn a blank in two of three away trips, a repeat looks unlikely.
This is a squad that should handle a Cypriot visitor at home. The talent gap is wide.
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Pafos: Lele in form, but the away record takes some explaining 
Ricardo Sa Pinto’s side wanted the Europa League. They lost 4-3 on aggregate to Salzburg in the third qualifying round and dropped into this competition, where they beat Dinamo City 5-3 over two legs in the playoff.
At home, Pafos are a different beast. On the road, they’ve been blunt. Zero goals at Hajduk Split, zero at Salzburg, one at Dinamo City. That’s not a sample you can wave away.
Lele is the man in form. The Brazilian forward, on loan from Fluminense, scored twice in Sunday’s 3-1 league win over Anorthosis. Domingos Quina and Biel should support him, with Vlad Dragomir and Ivan Sunjic in midfield.
Injuries hurt the visitors. Jaja is out with an ACL injury, a big loss in attack. Goalkeepers Charalampos Kyriakidis (arm) and Jay Gorter (shoulder) are also missing, which leaves Radoslaw Majecki, on loan from Monaco, between the posts.
David Luiz, now 39, is expected to anchor the backline again after featuring in all of Pafos’ European games this season. Experience counts for plenty. Pace against Atalanta’s front three? That’s another matter.
What does Pafos’ game plan look like here? Sit deep, frustrate, hope Lele gets a chance. It’s a plan that hasn’t produced away goals this autumn.
Probable lineup Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Scalvini, Kolasinac; Gaetano, Kessie, Ederson; De Ketelaere, Krstovic, Elmas
Probable lineup Pafos: Majecki; Zague, David Luiz, Mmaee, Ioannou; Pepe, Sunjic, Dragomir; Biel, Lele, Quina
Free Conference League Prediction: Atalanta vs Pafos
Our prediction: Atalanta to win to nil
The straight home win at 1.36 is too short for our threshold, so we’re adding a condition the numbers support. Pafos have scored once in three away games in Europe this season, failing to find the net at both Hajduk Split and Salzburg.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have the forward in form in Krstovic and a midfield of Kessie and Ederson that should control territory for long spells. Even with Hien and Kossounou missing, the home defence faces a Pafos attack without Jaja and short on away output.
It’s not complicated: the Conference League’s top seed at home, a reaction win already banked, against a visitor that goes quiet on the road. Atalanta win, Pafos don’t score. Check the price with your bookmaker before kick-off.
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