- 1 Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: an unbeaten run at home to the side in third
- 2 Cambuur: four games unbeaten, but one home win from four
- 3 AZ Alkmaar: three away wins from four, with a Europa League game in the legs
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: an unbeaten run at home to the side in third 
AZ Alkmaar go to Leeuwarden on Sunday sitting third in the Eredivisie with 19 points from eight games, one behind leaders Feyenoord and level with PSV Eindhoven. Their only league defeat of the season came in Rotterdam eight days ago, 2-0 at Feyenoord, and that result is why this trip carries more weight than a visit to a promoted side normally would.
Cambuur are that promoted side, and they’ve settled better than their opening weeks suggested. After back-to-back defeats to Feyenoord (5-2) and FC Twente (4-1), Johan Plat’s team haven’t lost in four league games: a 2-2 draw at Telstar, a 3-0 win over NEC, a 1-1 draw at ADO Den Haag and, last weekend, a 1-0 win at PEC Zwolle.
That run has lifted them to 12th on eight points. It hasn’t done much for their goal difference, which still sits at minus eight, and most of that damage was done at the Kooi Stadion.
AZ arrive off a Thursday night in the Europa League, where they beat Hapoel Be’er Sheva 2-1 in Alkmaar. Leeroy Echteld, in charge since January after replacing Maarten Martens, has had three days to turn the squad around, and that short turnaround is the one argument for Cambuur that goes beyond their recent form.
Kick-off is at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 18 October, in round nine. AZ haven’t lost in their three league visits to the Kooi Stadion since 2015, winning 1-0 and 3-1 and drawing 1-1.
Cambuur: four games unbeaten, but one home win from four 
The four-game run deserves credit, though the detail matters. Two of those results came away from home, and the 3-0 against NEC is still Cambuur’s only win in Leeuwarden this season. Across four home league games they’ve won once and lost three times, scoring six and conceding 13.
Those 13 goals came mostly in two afternoons, with Feyenoord scoring five and Twente four. AZ, who average 2.3 goals per game on the road this season, are the next side of that level to visit.
Going forward, Plat relies on Rafik El Arguioui and Ilyes Hamache, who both scored against NEC. Nicolas Binder has two league goals, the latest an 83rd-minute winner at Zwolle after a minor problem had kept him on the bench, and he’s in contention to start up front.
The absences sit mainly at the back and in the depth of the squad. Jamal Amofa is out for the rest of the season with a cruciate ligament injury, Wout Asselman is unavailable, and Daan Visser is still working back from cruciate surgery, with a return expected in the coming weeks.
I’d read Cambuur’s season this way: hard to beat away from home, where they can sit in and break, and still open in Leeuwarden, where they push forward in front of their own crowd. That approach worked against NEC. Against AZ, it gives the visitors exactly the space they want.
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AZ Alkmaar: three away wins from four, with a Europa League game in the legs 
AZ’s six league wins include victories at Fortuna Sittard (2-0), Heerenveen (3-2) and FC Utrecht (4-1), a 5-2 home win over Go Ahead Eagles and a 1-0 win over Telstar. A 1-1 draw with Willem II was the only time they dropped points before the 2-0 defeat at Feyenoord on 10 October.
Away from home the numbers are better still. AZ have won three of their four league away games, scoring an average of 2.3 goals and conceding 1.3, and the one defeat was in Rotterdam against the leaders.
Mexx Meerdink and Ro-Zangelo Daal have carried most of the scoring this season. Both are expected to start, Meerdink through the middle and Daal wide, with Jordy Clasie and Peer Koopmeiners in front of the back four.
Kees Smit won’t be among them. He picked up a groin injury with the Netherlands Under-21s, Stije Resink tore a cruciate ligament and isn’t expected back until around the turn of the year, and Jizz Hornkamp has an ankle problem. Denso Kasius is fit again and came off the bench against Hapoel Be’er Sheva.
Fatigue is the obvious question after Thursday. Echteld has a settled first-choice side, and with Kasius available again he can rotate in defence without changing the midfield and attack that have produced most of AZ’s goals.
Probable lineup Cambuur: Jansen; Costarelli, Van Duijl, Baouf, Bouah; Souren, Apkakou; Kvam, El Arguioui, Hamache; Binder
Probable lineup AZ Alkmaar: De Busser; Dijkstra, Goes, Schouten, Chavez; Koopmeiners, Clasie; Stengs, Oufkir, Daal; Meerdink
Free Football Prediction: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Our prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win (odds 1.48)
AZ to win at 1.48 is the pick. Cambuur have lost three of their four home league games this season and conceded 13 in them, while AZ have won three of four on the road and sit 11 points clear of Sunday’s hosts after eight rounds.
The case against is Cambuur’s recent run. They’re unbeaten in four, they held on for a 1-0 win at Zwolle, and they’ve had a full week to prepare while AZ played on Thursday.
Neither point outweighs the gap in quality. AZ haven’t lost at the Kooi Stadion in three league visits since 2015, and they’ve won three of four away games this season. For those wanting a bigger price, both teams to score is available at 1.50, with Cambuur having scored in three of their four home games.
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