- 1 Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK: five straight defeats on this ground for the visitors
- 2 Istanbul Basaksehir: seven of eight points at home, six goals for Shomurodov
- 3 Gaziantep FK: two early away wins, then three league games without a goal
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK: five straight defeats on this ground for the visitors 
Gaziantep FK have lost on each of their last five league visits to the Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, scoring twice and conceding 14. Basaksehir have also won the last three meetings between the sides, 9-3 on aggregate, so Sunday’s game comes with a fairly clear history attached.
The league table is less clear. After seven rounds of the Süper Lig the two clubs are level on eight points, Basaksehir 11th and Gaziantep 12th, separated only by goal difference: minus one against minus three. Both have won two, drawn two and lost three.
How they got there is very different. Basaksehir have taken seven of their eight points at home and scored nine of their ten league goals there, while Gaziantep have done their best work on the road, with two wins from three away games.
Which of those patterns holds will decide the match. Nuri Sahin’s side need their home form to rescue a season that has already brought a Conference League exit, 3-1 on aggregate to Inter Turku, and only two wins from nine matches in all competitions.
Both sides went into the international break on poor results. Basaksehir drew 0-0 at Konyaspor on 11 October, and Gaziantep were beaten 3-0 at home by Corum the same day. Over their last ten matches the records are identical, three wins, three draws and four defeats each, though Basaksehir have scored 13 in that spell to Gaziantep’s 11.
Kick-off is at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 18 October, in round eight, with Alpaslan Şen refereeing.
Istanbul Basaksehir: seven of eight points at home, six goals for Shomurodov 
Basaksehir’s league home record reads two wins, a draw and a defeat: 2-0 against Kocaelispor, 1-1 against Kasimpasa, a 3-2 loss to Galatasaray and a 4-0 win over Genclerbirligi on 19 September. They’ve conceded four times in those four games, and three of those goals came in the Galatasaray match.
Away from home the picture falls apart. Basaksehir lost 2-1 at Trabzonspor, were beaten 5-0 at Amed SK and drew 0-0 at Konyaspor before the international break, which adds up to one point and one goal from three trips. Over their last ten matches they’ve taken 120 shots, 36 of them on target, against Gaziantep’s 86 and 23.
Eldor Shomurodov has six goals this season and is the main source of them. He’s expected to play behind Bertug Yildirim, who is still waiting for his first goal, in a 4-2-3-1 that also has Jesper Skov Olsen and Brnic in the wide roles.
Edin Visca has been out all season and remains unavailable, although he is close to a return. Sahin has no suspensions to manage, so the side that drew in Konya should be largely unchanged.
I’d treat the 5-0 at Amed as an away problem rather than a collapse. At home, Basaksehir have scored in every league game and lost only to Galatasaray, and that’s the version of the team Gaziantep have to face.
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Gaziantep FK: two early away wins, then three league games without a goal 
Orhan Ak’s side made a good start on the road, winning 1-0 at Eyupspor in August and 4-2 at Goztepe on 7 September. Those six points account for most of their total.
Since then, the goals have dried up. Gaziantep drew 0-0 with Fenerbahce, lost 2-0 at Kocaelispor and then lost 3-0 at home to Corum on 11 October, three league games in a row without scoring.
The Corum defeat stands out because it came at home, in Gaziantep’s last game before the break, and it left Gaziantep with a goal difference of minus three after a spell in which they conceded five and scored none.
The squad news doesn’t help either. Fuat Bavuk is expected to miss the trip with a thigh injury, and Ali Kalin and Nazim Sangare are both doubts with muscle problems. Halil Dervisoglu, who has one goal this season, should lead the line again, with Sorescu and Kozlowski on the flanks.
Five consecutive league defeats at this ground, with 14 goals conceded and two scored, sit alongside a current run of three blanks. Both point in the same direction for Sunday.
Probable lineup Istanbul Basaksehir: Sengezer; Karbownik, Bayram, Ba, Kharebashvili; Gunes, Kemen; Skov Olsen, Shomurodov, Brnic; Yildirim
Probable lineup Gaziantep FK: Tobiasz; Perez, Abena, Sylla, Calhanoglu; Ozcicek; Sorescu, Gidado, Maxim, Kozlowski; Dervisoglu
Free Football Prediction: Istanbul Basaksehir vs Gaziantep FK
Our prediction: Istanbul Basaksehir to win (odds 1.61)
Istanbul Basaksehir to win at 1.61. Their home form is the strongest part of their season, with nine of their ten league goals scored in Istanbul, and Gaziantep arrive without a goal in their last three league games.
The concession is Gaziantep’s away record. Two wins from three trips is better than anything Basaksehir have managed on the road, and a side that won 4-2 at Goztepe can score when it’s given space. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.60, which suits a home side that scored four against Genclerbirligi and three against Galatasaray, but Gaziantep’s recent blanks make the result the safer angle.
That away form came in August and early September, though. The three blanks have all come since, including the 3-0 home defeat by Corum. Combined with five straight defeats at this stadium, that makes 1.61 for the home win the price I’d take.
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