- 1 Burnley vs Portsmouth: Celestini’s first game, 21 home matches without a win
- 2 Burnley: the joint-worst defence and a long injury list
- 3 Portsmouth: five goals conceded in six away games
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Burnley vs Portsmouth
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Burnley vs Portsmouth: Celestini’s first game, 21 home matches without a win 
Burnley haven’t won a league game at Turf Moor since beating Leeds United 2-0 in October 2025. That’s 21 home league matches without a win, and it’s the record Fabio Celestini inherits for his first game in charge on Saturday.
Nicky Hayen was sacked after a 4-1 defeat at Lincoln City last weekend. Four days later Burnley named Celestini, the former Basel coach who left CSKA Moscow in May, as his replacement. The club hasn’t disclosed the length of his contract.
Celestini has also coached Lugano, Luzern and Sion. At Basel he took a side sitting bottom of the Swiss table to a league and cup double inside 18 months, and he won 35 caps for Switzerland as a player.
He’ll need a version of that here. Burnley are 22nd with eight points from 12 games, one win, five draws and six defeats, and three points from safety. Portsmouth visit at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 31 October, sitting 11th on 18 points.
John Mousinho’s side have lost one of their last eight matches, and they’ve lost once in their last eight league visits to Burnley, a 2-1 defeat at Turf Moor in September 2024.
Portsmouth have won three of their last four Championship games. Burnley have conceded nine goals in their last three.
Burnley are 1.95 to win, the draw is 3.40 and Portsmouth 3.50. Under 2.5 goals is 1.91.
Burnley: the joint-worst defence and a long injury list 
Burnley have conceded 25 league goals, joint-most in the Championship. Their last six games brought a 3-1 defeat at Swansea, a 1-1 draw with Derby, a 4-0 win at Watford, a 2-2 draw with Charlton, a 2-1 home defeat to Wolves and the 4-1 loss at Lincoln.
That 4-0 at Vicarage Road is still their only league win of the season. At Turf Moor it’s four draws and two defeats from six games.
Both teams have scored in nine of Burnley’s last ten matches, and they’ve conceded two goals a game over that run. Burnley have scored in every one of those ten as well.
The injury list is long. Bashir Humphreys, Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, Hannibal, Aaron Ramsey and Jacob Bruun Larsen are all out. Jamie Vardy missed the Lincoln game, and Kyle Walker and Armando Broja were both forced off in it and need to be assessed.
Josh Cullen and Jaydon Banel have played for the under-21s and are close to a return, though Saturday may come too soon for both.
Diego Lopez, the club’s new chief football officer, backed Celestini’s appointment. Steven Gerrard had been the bookmakers’ favourite for the job after Hayen left.
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Portsmouth: five goals conceded in six away games 
Portsmouth have the joint-best away defence in the Championship, with five goals conceded in six trips. They haven’t scored more than once in any of their last five away games either.
Mousinho’s side drew 2-2 with Blackburn and lost 1-0 at Southampton before going four unbeaten: 3-2 against Sheffield United, 1-0 at Norwich, 1-1 at Wolves and 2-1 against Millwall last weekend.
Terry Devlin rescued the point at Molineux. Thomas Waddingham scored the winner against Millwall, his first goal since January 2025.
Colby Bishop’s knee injury is worse than first thought, and he’s out for a longer spell. Benjamin Arthur, Connor Ogilvie, Mark Kosznovszky, John Swift, Keshi Anderson and Luke Brooke-Smith are also unavailable.
Conor Shaughnessy and Josh Murphy could both come back into contention. Schmid is expected in goal behind Swanson, Poole, Dia and Meghoma, with Pack and Mohamed screening them.
Without Bishop, the goals have been spread around. Waddingham and Devlin both scored in the last two games, and Marezi is expected to start up front.
Portsmouth are two points off the play-off places. Over their last ten away games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals per match, scoring 0.6 and conceding 0.8.
Probable lineup Burnley: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Portsmouth: Schmid; Swanson, Poole, Dia, Meghoma; Pack, Mohamed; Kamara, Segecic, Kavuma-McQueen; Marezi
Free Football Prediction: Burnley vs Portsmouth
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.91)
Burnley’s games are open, but Portsmouth’s away games aren’t. Ten away matches at 1.4 goals each is the stronger pattern, and Mousinho won’t change a set-up that has conceded five goals in six trips.
Celestini has had three days with the squad, six players are out and Vardy, Walker and Broja are all doubts. Burnley’s attack has scored 1.4 a game over the last ten, and it’s unlikely to be at full strength here.
The last two meetings produced three goals between them: 2-1 to Burnley at Turf Moor in September 2024 and 0-0 at Fratton Park in February 2025.
I’d take under 2.5 goals at 1.91. A 1-1 or a 1-0 either way looks far more likely than the 4-1 Burnley shipped at Lincoln.
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