- 1 Bulgaria vs Iceland: an interim coach in Plovdiv against the group leaders
- 2 Bulgaria: three goals in four group games and a new man in the dugout
- 3 Iceland: Óskarsson involved in five of seven goals, one conceded in four games
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Bulgaria vs Iceland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bulgaria vs Iceland: an interim coach in Plovdiv against the group leaders 
Aleksandar Dimitrov didn’t make it to October. Bulgaria’s coach resigned after a goalless draw at home to Estonia on 29 September, and Atanas Ribarski has picked the side on an interim basis since. Bulgaria have played twice under him: a 3-0 defeat in Reykjavik and a 2-0 win in Luxembourg.
Bulgaria vs Iceland is on Friday 13 November at the Hristo Botev Stadium in Plovdiv, kick-off 19:45 UK time, on matchday five of League C Group 4. Bulgaria opened the group at the same ground in September and lost 2-1 to Luxembourg in front of 4,300.
Iceland lead the group with eight points from four games, seven goals scored and one conceded. Estonia are second on six, Bulgaria third on four and Luxembourg bottom on three. The winner goes up to League B, while the runner-up gets a play-off against a League B side in March 2027.
The reverse fixture wasn’t close. Iceland won 3-0 at Laugardalsvöllur on 3 October, Orri Óskarsson scoring on 37 and 60 minutes and Mikael Egill Ellertsson adding a third in the 90th. Óskarsson even had a late penalty saved by Daniel Naumov, which kept the score down.
Bulgaria have won one of their last six matches in all competitions. Iceland haven’t lost in four Nations League games this autumn. I went looking for a reason to back the home side on Friday and came up short.
Bulgaria: three goals in four group games and a new man in the dugout 
Bulgaria’s three group goals have come from three different players. Asen Chandarov scored against Luxembourg on 26 September, then Kristiyan Balov and Atanas Iliev got the goals in the 2-0 win at the Stade de Luxembourg on 6 October.
That win is the one Ribarski can point to. Balov scored on 19 minutes, Iliev on 34, and Bulgaria held the lead through the whole second half. Luxembourg haven’t scored in their last three games, though, so it’s a thin result to build a case on.
Ribarski’s November squad, named on 3 November, has three uncapped players: Ludogorets defender Simeon Shishkov, forward Georgi Lazarov and AEK Larnaca midfielder Ivan Pankov. Levski captain Kristian Dimitrov, who wore the armband in September and October, isn’t in it, and no reason was given.
Ivaylo Chochev is back. In September he was expected to miss the rest of the group with a knee problem, so his return gives Ribarski an experienced Ludogorets midfielder to sit alongside Leeds’ Ilia Gruev.
Lukas Petkov and Dimitar Velkovski served one-match bans for bookings on 6 October and are both available again. Over a longer stretch the form is poor: Bulgaria lost 1-0 at home to Montenegro and drew 2-2 in Moldova in June friendlies, and finished bottom of their World Cup qualifying group.
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Iceland: Óskarsson involved in five of seven goals, one conceded in four games 
Orri Óskarsson has three goals and two assists in this campaign. The Real Sociedad striker has had a hand in five of Iceland’s seven group goals, and two of them came against Bulgaria.
Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen has the other two that stand out: the opener in the 1-1 with Estonia on 26 September and the first goal of the 3-0 win in Luxembourg three days later. Victor Pálsson and Ellertsson have one each.
The defence has conceded once, Maksim Paskotši’s equaliser for Estonia on 64 minutes of the opening game. Since then Iceland have kept three clean sheets in a row, the last of them a 0-0 in Tallinn on 6 October.
Arnar Gunnlaugsson is without Lazio’s Albert Guðmundsson, goalkeeper Elías Rafn Ólafsson and Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason, all injured, while Andri Fannar Baldursson isn’t fully fit. Brentford’s Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson, Lille’s Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson and Gylfi Sigurðsson are all in the squad.
Gunnlaugsson’s three new names are goalkeeper Anton Ari Einarsson of Breiðablik, Þórir Jóhann Helgason and Kristian Nökkvi Hlynsson. The rest of the group is largely the one that took eight points from four games in September and October.
Iceland’s friendlies before the autumn were poor: a 1-1 draw with Haiti in March, a 1-0 defeat in Japan and a 3-0 loss to Argentina. In competitive football they’ve looked a different side, and that’s the form I’d trust here.
Probable lineup Bulgaria: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Iceland: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Bulgaria vs Iceland
Our prediction: Iceland to win (odds 1.83)
Iceland have the better attack, the better defence and a 3-0 win over this opponent five weeks ago. Bulgaria’s only group win came against a Luxembourg side that hasn’t scored since September.
The case for Bulgaria rests on playing at home, and that hasn’t helped them so far. They lost 2-1 to Luxembourg and drew 0-0 with Estonia in their two group games in Plovdiv, scoring once.
I’d back Iceland to win at 1.83. A coach change mid-campaign, a captain left out and a side that’s won one game in six isn’t the profile of a team that turns round a 3-0 defeat in five weeks.
Luxembourg host Estonia at the same time. An Iceland win in Plovdiv, with Estonia dropping points in Luxembourg, would leave Gunnlaugsson’s side needing very little when they host Luxembourg on Monday 16 November.
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