- 1 Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn: 13 goals at one end, none at the other
- 2 Dortmund score freely, but the back line is stretched
- 3 Paderborn have stopped scoring, and that is a real issue
- 4 Bundesliga prediction Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn
- 5 First, a word on our free tips
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn: 13 goals at one end, none at the other 
Borussia Dortmund have scored 13 goals in their last five competitive matches. SC Paderborn have not found the net once in their last two outings.
That stat tells the story better than the table does. The newly promoted side heads to Signal Iduna Park on Saturday 12 September at 15:30, German time.
Dortmund come in on the back of two results that set the tone. A 5-0 rout of HEBC Hamburg in the German Cup, then a 2-0 win over Hamburger SV in the league. They also made a solid start to their Champions League campaign, edging Villarreal 3-2.
BVB then showed a different side away at Hoffenheim on 5 September. Two goals down on the hour, they stormed back to win 3-2 and nick three points that looked gone.
Paderborn, meanwhile, are finding out how brutal the top flight can be. Just six goals across five matches, and a 1-0 home defeat to Freiburg on matchday two.
The history books offer little comfort for the visitors. Dortmund are unbeaten in the last eight meetings between the sides, with five wins and three draws.
The bookmakers have made their view plain: a Dortmund win is priced at around 1.16. The real question is not who wins, but by how much.
The most common scoreline being backed is 3-1 to BVB. It fits Dortmund’s attacking numbers and Paderborn’s current bluntness.
Paderborn are new to the elite and every point matters in a season like this. No survival plan is built on trips to Dortmund, but the fixture list does not care.
Signal Iduna Park adds a factor stats do not fully capture. Going there without scoring in two games is a serious problem.
Dortmund score freely, but the back line is stretched 
Thirteen goals in five games works out at 2.6 a match. Dortmund’s attack has been the most reliable part of their start to the season.
The 5-0 cup win over HEBC Hamburg got the momentum going. The 2-0 victory over Hamburger SV showed it was not just a one-off.
The trip to Hoffenheim offered the real test of character. Avdullahu put them behind just before half-time, before BVB flipped the game and won 3-2.
Serhou Guirassy got the comeback moving, Hajdari finished it off. Two goals in 20 minutes were enough to wipe out a two-goal deficit.
The injury list at the back is a concern, though. Nico Schlotterbeck has a serious injury to the medial ligament in his left ankle, while Emre Can has torn the cruciate ligament in his left knee.
Ramy Bensebaini, Justin Lerma, Giannis Konstantelias and Filippo Mané are also out. Samuele Inacio is serving a suspension.
BVB have scored at least twice in most of their last five games. The 5-0 cup win counts in the average, it does not distort it.
The Hoffenheim comeback says more than just efficiency. A side that can erase a two-goal deficit in half an hour has a useful edge over a long season.
But losing Schlotterbeck and Emre Can at the same time strips the side of two key reference points. These are not short-term absences.
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Paderborn have stopped scoring, and that is a real issue 
Six goals in their last five outings, none in the last two. The promoted side’s attack has gone quiet just as the schedule has stiffened.
Matchday two was a warning sign. Freiburg left Paderborn with a 1-0 win, and the East Westphalia club never truly laid a glove on them.
That scoring drought could hardly come at a worse time before a trip to Dortmund. No promoted side can expect to survive there by relying only on its defensive shape.
Sven Michel is still missing. The striker is out with a muscle problem in his groin picked up during pre-season, and he remains sidelined for several more weeks.
Even so, Paderborn do have one trait that matters: they can stay in games for long spells. Three of the last eight meetings with BVB have ended level.
That is where the sporting interest lies. Lasting an hour without conceding would change the feel of the match. Winning it would be another matter entirely.
The 1-0 defeat to Freiburg sums up the problem. Paderborn stay in it, do not score, and eventually give up a chance.
Six goals across five matches is an average of 1.2 a game. That is nowhere near enough to expect a result in Dortmund.
Michel’s long absence leaves the attack without its main focal point. Paderborn need an answer up front before the fixture list gets even harsher.
Expected Borussia Dortmund line-up: Not available at time of publication.
Expected SC Paderborn line-up: Not available at time of publication.
Bundesliga prediction Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn
Our pick: Dortmund to win by at least two goals (handicap -1.5)
Backing Borussia Dortmund to win outright at 1.16 is hardly worth the bother. The handicap market pushes the price beyond 1.45 and still points to the same basic script.
Dortmund are averaging 2.6 goals a game and are hosting a side that has not scored in two straight matches. The 5-0 win over HEBC Hamburg is a reminder of what BVB can do to weaker blocks.
Dortmund’s defensive absences do not change the call, because Paderborn are not scoring. We are taking Dortmund to win by a minimum of two goals.
The most likely scoreline among observers remains 3-1 to BVB. That would land the handicap neatly.
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