- 1 Belarus vs Finland: the best defence in Group C1 meets a host that has never beaten them
- 2 Belarus: harder to beat under Goncharenko, still short of punch
- 3 Finland: nine scored, one conceded and Leo Walta in red-hot form
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Belarus vs Finland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Belarus vs Finland: the best defence in Group C1 meets a host that has never beaten them 
Six meetings, zero Belarus wins. Finland have never lost to Belarus, and that record goes on the line in Budapest on Tuesday night.
Belarus host Finland on Tuesday 6 October at the Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest, with kick-off at 20:45 Paris time. UEFA restrictions still prevent Belarus from playing at home, so this is a nominal home game on neutral ground.
It is matchday four of League C Group 1 in the Nations League. Finland top the section with seven points, Albania follow on six and Belarus sit third with four.
The reverse fixture was only a week ago. Belarus held Finland to a goalless draw in Helsinki on 29 September, the result that stretched Finland’s unbeaten run in this fixture to six games (two wins, four draws).
Finland have the strongest numbers in the group at both ends: nine scored, one conceded. Belarus have tightened up too, letting in just two goals across their three Nations League games.
So this is not a mismatch. It is a group leader with more firepower against a side that has learned how to make games ugly.
With Albania facing San Marino in the other fixture, Finland cannot afford to drop points. A win in Budapest opens a gap at the top that Belarus simply cannot close.
Belarus: harder to beat under Goncharenko, still short of punch 
Viktor Goncharenko’s biggest achievement is defensive. Belarus have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last ten matches.
The campaign started badly with a 2-0 defeat in Albania on 26 September. Three days later came the 0-0 in Helsinki, and on Saturday they finally won, 4-0 against San Marino.
Artem Kontsevoi scored twice after the break in that rout, with Artem Shumanskiy and Max Ebong also on target. It ended a run of 12 competitive matches without a win.
That drought tells the bigger story. Belarus finished bottom of their World Cup qualifying group with two points from six matches, and four San Marino goals do not erase that.
They do start games with intent, having opened the scoring in five of their last seven. Holding a lead against quality is a different job entirely.
There are no injuries or suspensions to report. Fedor Lapoukhov should stay in goal behind Zakhar Volkov and Kirill Gomanov, with Kontsevoi on the right as the main outlet.
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Finland: nine scored, one conceded and Leo Walta in red-hot form 
Finland were relegated from League B after losing all six games in 2024-25. Jacob Friis has them on course to go straight back up.
The campaign opened with a 7-0 thrashing of San Marino. After the stalemate against Belarus, Finland came from behind on Saturday to beat Albania 2-1.
Rey Manaj put Albania ahead after four minutes, but Leo Walta equalised before half-time and won it in the 71st minute. That brace takes Walta to five goals in this group stage.
Joel Pohjanpalo gives Friis a more direct option up front. The veteran striker is a natural target for crosses, and Finland know how to feed him.
There is one absence. Kaan Kairinen is suspended after two yellow cards, but Glen Kamara is back in the squad after a year away and can step into midfield.
Lukas Hradecky remains the foundation behind a back line that has conceded once in three games. A team that concedes that rarely does not hand a group lead to the side in third.
Probable lineup Belarus: Lapoukhov; Begunov, Gomanov, Volkov, Pechenin; Ebong, Yablonskiy; Kontsevoi, Gromyko, Simanenka; Melnichenko
Probable lineup Finland: Hradecky; Stahl, T. Miettinen, S. Miettinen, Lahteenmaki; Kamara, Markhiev, Walta; Svanback, Pohjanpalo, Hakans
Free Football Prediction: Belarus vs Finland
Our prediction: Finland to win (odds 2.00)
Finland have the best attack and the best defence in the group, plus a scorer in Walta who is producing every match. Belarus have one win in their last 13 competitive games, and it came against San Marino.
The 0-0 in Helsinki is a warning, not a pattern. Finland have now had a week to study Goncharenko’s low block, and this time they are the ones playing on neutral turf with nothing to fear.
At 2.00, an away win is a fair price for the stronger, sharper team. Finland edge it and keep top spot.
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