- 1 Atletico de Madrid vs Real Madrid: two points separate the Madrid giants before the derby
- 2 Atletico de Madrid: seven goals in their last two league games
- 3 Real Madrid: five wins in six, but only one goal for Vinicius
- 4 La Liga Prediction Atletico de Madrid vs Real Madrid
- 5 Before we start, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Atletico de Madrid vs Real Madrid: two points separate the Madrid giants before the derby 
Real Madrid sit second in La Liga on 15 points, Atletico are fourth on 13. Just two points split the capital rivals as they head to the Metropolitano.
Kick-off for the derby is set for Sunday 20 September at 16:15. It’s the final round before the international break, so there’ll be no room for conservation, on either side.
Both teams arrive in similar form: Atletico have rattled off two straight wins, while Jose Mourinho’s side have won five of their last six. Neither camp comes into this one short on confidence.
The gap to Barcelona, who top the table on 18 points, gives this match immediate importance for Real. A slip at the Metropolitano would leave Los Blancos chasing a rival who has dropped nothing through six rounds.
For Atletico, the bigger point is elsewhere: they finished fourth last season, 25 points behind the champions. Winning this derby would be the first real sign that the ceiling is rising.
Recent history suggests goals. Real won 3-2 at the Bernabeu in March, but Atletico crushed the return meeting at home 5-2 last season.
Real Madrid are chasing a 126th win over their neighbours in the history of this fixture. That number says plenty about the balance of power, even if Atletico have a habit of upsetting it now and then.
Both teams also come back from the break with tougher games ahead, with Villarreal next for Real and a European restart in Rome in mid-October. So September ends here.
Two key questions remain: Julian Alvarez’s fitness for Atletico, and Vinicius Junior’s scoring drought for Real. That is where the match will turn.
Atletico de Madrid: seven goals in their last two league games 
Atletico have four wins, one draw and one defeat from their six La Liga games. That leaves them on 13 points, two behind their city rivals.
September started badly, though, with a 3-0 beating at Bilbao and a 2-1 defeat at Anfield in the Champions League. Those two games raised proper doubts about the group’s sturdiness.
The reply has been emphatic: 3-0 away at Real Sociedad, then 4-0 at home to Osasuna. Seven goals scored, none conceded, across those two matches.
Jonathan David scored against Osasuna and is expected to keep his place up front. His link-up with Ademola Lookman is Simeone’s attacking gamble for the derby.
Julian Alvarez has been carrying a muscle issue, missed the last two games and is unlikely to start on Sunday. Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sorloth are also being monitored after muscle problems and will go through late fitness checks.
Lee Kang-in and Alex Baena are expected to start and give Atletico width. How well they attack the spaces will shape the depth of a rojiblanco side missing its Argentinian finisher.
The Metropolitano is also a friendly place for Atletico, with that 5-2 thrashing of Real last season still fresh in the memory. Simeone won’t need much more to sell his case.
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Real Madrid: five wins in six, but only one goal for Vinicius 
Real Madrid have won five of their last six games in all competitions. The only blot was a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis earlier in September.
The response was immediate: a 2-1 win over Inter Milan in the Champions League, then 4-1 against Rayo Vallecano and 3-2 at Elche. Three wins on the spin keep Los Blancos within touching distance of Barcelona.
The trip to Elche did expose some flaws, though. They were behind until stoppage time and needed a Carlos Espi goal to steal all three points.
Vinicius Junior has scored only once this season and has gone four La Liga games without a goal. Mourinho will still name him in the starting XI.
Madrid’s injury list is short, but it hits some important areas: Eder Militao, Rodrygo and Ferland Mendy are out. The rest of the squad is available.
Denzel Dumfries is expected to reclaim the right flank ahead of Trent Alexander-Arnold, with Jude Bellingham back in the middle. Aurelien Tchouameni and Federico Valverde will anchor midfield, while Bernardo Silva is an option from the bench.
Up front, Kylian Mbappe remains the main outlet in Mourinho’s setup. Much of Madrid’s plan rests on his ability to get at Atletico’s back line.
Predicted Atletico de Madrid XI: Oblak ; Llorente, Romero, Le Normand, Grimaldo ; Lee, Koke, Cardoso, Baena ; David, Lookman
Predicted Real Madrid XI: Courtois ; Dumfries, Konate, Huijsen, Cucurella ; Valverde, Tchouameni ; Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius ; Mbappe
La Liga Prediction Atletico de Madrid vs Real Madrid
Our pick: Both teams to score
The last two meetings between these sides finished 3-2 to Real at the Bernabeu in March and 5-2 to Atletico at the Metropolitano last season. In both games, both teams found the net.
The current picture points the same way: Atletico have scored seven goals in two league matches, and Real have scored at least twice in each of their last five outings, including conceding two at Elche.
Neither Simeone without Alvarez nor Mourinho without Militao has the balance to shut this derby down. Both teams should score on Sunday at the Metropolitano.
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