- 1 Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: five derbies without an Athletic win
- 2 Athletic Bilbao: 19.6 expected goals, 12 scored, and now no Guruzeta
- 3 Real Sociedad: 16 goals in three games, one clean sheet in ten
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: five derbies without an Athletic win 
Athletic Club haven’t beaten Real Sociedad in their last five meetings. Two of those were the legs of last season’s Copa del Rey semi-final, both won 1-0 by la Real on their way to lifting the trophy. The other three came in the league: a 3-2 Real Sociedad win in November 2025, a 0-0 and a 1-1.
The Basque derby is back at San Mamés on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time, and it closes the 11th round of La Liga. Real Sociedad sit fifth on 19 points from ten games. Athletic are eighth on 12, with a game less played.
That game in hand wasn’t their choice. The round-eight trip to Rayo Vallecano was halted after objects were thrown onto the pitch during a fans’ protest against Rayo’s president, and no new date has been fixed. A storm had already pushed their visit to Levante from September back to 21 October.
Real Sociedad come in on a strong run. They’ve won four and drawn one of their last five in all competitions and scored 16 goals in the last three, including 6-0 at Lillestrøm in the Europa League and 5-2 at Málaga.
We’d still put more weight on a different figure. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side have kept one clean sheet all season, and none in five away league games, and that number shapes our reading of Sunday more than the table does.
The calendar leans one way too. Athletic play a Copa del Rey tie against Prat on Thursday, while Real Sociedad, as holders, don’t enter the competition until the last 32 in December and have had a full week since beating Levante.
Athletic Bilbao: 19.6 expected goals, 12 scored, and now no Guruzeta 
Edin Terzić’s first season at the club has stalled in front of goal. Athletic have generated 19.6 expected goals in the league and turned them into 12, a shortfall of more than seven.
Last Sunday’s 4-0 win over Getafe was the exception. Álex Berenguer scored once and set up three, and two academy players, Imga and Txus Vizcay, made their first-team debuts. Before that came a goalless draw at Mestalla and a 3-1 defeat at Levante in which Laporte was sent off as the last man.
The draw in Valencia cost them Guruzeta, who ruptured a cruciate ligament and won’t play again this season. Unai Egiluz has the same injury and is out until around January. Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta lasted 18 minutes against Getafe before a hamstring injury that the club has confirmed rules him out of the derby, and Sancet (calf) is doubtful.
There’s better news out wide. Nico Williams is fit again after three weeks out with a muscle problem, which gives Terzić Berenguer on one flank and Williams on the other. Laporte’s status after the red card hasn’t been spelled out, though the expected line-ups have him next to Vivian.
At San Mamés, Athletic have won two, drawn two and lost one in the league, scoring nine and conceding four. Three of those five home games finished without a goal against, and Unai Simón, winner of the 2026 Yashin Trophy, has been the reason the defence has held while the attack hasn’t.
Thursday’s Copa tie at Prat will probably bring rotation. It still leaves Terzić with three days to prepare for an opponent who’s had seven.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Real Sociedad: 16 goals in three games, one clean sheet in ten 
Real Sociedad have scored 19 league goals in ten games and conceded 18. A goal difference of +1 is a thin cushion for a side in fifth.
The last five results run like this: 3-2 at home to Deportivo, 1-1 at Union Saint-Gilloise, 5-2 at Málaga, 6-0 at Lillestrøm and 2-1 at home to Levante on Sunday. Óskarsson scored after five minutes against Levante, Nacho Pérez levelled, and Turrientes settled it on 27 minutes.
Away from Anoeta they’ve won three and lost two in La Liga, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Across all competitions their last five away games read four wins and a draw, 18 goals scored and seven conceded.
Matarazzo is without Odriozola, who has a cruciate ligament injury, and Beitia is a doubt after spraining an ankle. Yangel Herrera and Aramburu returned from injury as substitutes on Sunday. Herrera is one yellow card away from a ban.
The goals are spread across the front line. Our figures have Sučić on three league goals, Oyarzabal on two goals and three assists, and Óskarsson and Turrientes both on the scoresheet last weekend.
The weakness is at the other end. One clean sheet in ten league games, three red cards, and four of their last five away games going over 2.5 goals.
Probable lineup Athletic Bilbao: Simón; Areso, Vivian, Laporte, Yuri; Gerenabarrena, Canales; Berenguer, Navarro, N. Williams; I. Williams
Probable lineup Real Sociedad: Remiro; Aramburu, Jon Martín, Zubeldia, Sergio Gómez; Gorrotxategi, Soler; Guedes, Sučić, Barrenetxea; Oyarzabal
Free La Liga Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
Our prediction: Both teams to score at 1.74
Real Sociedad haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road all season, and Athletic have scored nine times in five home league games. La Real have found the net in every one of their last five matches, 16 times in the last three. We expect both goalkeepers to be beaten.
We’ve weighed the case against it. Athletic have five clean sheets, three of them at home, and the last two meetings at San Mamés finished 0-1 and 1-1. Guruzeta’s absence takes their main penalty-box striker away. Against that, Berenguer’s form and Nico Williams’ return give Athletic two wide threats against a back line that has conceded 18 times in ten games.
We’d leave the 1X2 alone. Athletic at around 1.94 haven’t beaten this opponent since November 2024 and play a cup tie on Thursday, while Real Sociedad at 3.25 lost two of their last three league visits to San Mamés. Both teams to score at 1.74 is the bet that holds up whichever side’s form wins out.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply