- 1 Atalanta vs Bologna: two new benches, two very different realities after one round
- 2 Atalanta: a home fortress still waiting to be fully tested under Sarri
- 3 Bologna: a reshaped squad still looking for its groove
- 4 Serie A prediction Atalanta vs Bologna
- 5 First, a word on our free tips
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Atalanta vs Bologna: two new benches, two very different realities after one round 
Bologna have won four of their last five trips to Bergamo in all competitions. That is the stat that makes this look a lot tighter than it first appears.
Matchday two in Serie A takes the Rossoblu to the New Balance Arena on Monday 31 August at 20:45. Maurizio Sarri and Domenico Tedesco are both set for their second league game in charge.
Atalanta opened with a 2-1 win over Sassuolo, posting 56% possession, 14 shots and 7 on target, plus 595 passes. Giacomo Raspadori scored against his old club, while Nikola Krstovic came off the bench to wrap it up.
Bologna, meanwhile, lost 1-0 at home to Lazio despite 59% possession, 13 shots and 8 corners. The ball was there, the edge was not.
The two clubs finished last season just three points apart, with Atalanta seventh and Bologna eighth. Vincenzo Italiano has moved on after winning the Coppa Italia, leaving Tedesco to pick up the pieces.
Sarri also has three competitive matches under his belt compared with one for his opposite number, including the Conference League play-off. In late August, that sort of rhythm matters.
Tactically, this one will come down to Bologna’s ability to play through Sarri’s high press without the old spine that held them together. That is the key issue heading into the rest of the analysis.
Atalanta: a home fortress still waiting to be fully tested under Sarri 
The Gewiss Stadium, a fortress built to last
The numbers speak for themselves: Atalanta are unbeaten in 16 of their last 20 home league matches, with half of those ending in wins.
That kind of consistency at home underlines the standing the Bergamo club has built at the top table of Italian football.
A defensive base that keeps standing up
That solidity is built on well-drilled tactical discipline. Across their last 30 home matches in all competitions, the Dea have averaged 1.53 goals scored and fewer than one conceded per game.
It is a tried-and-tested defensive balance that turns every trip to Bergamo into a proper slog for visiting sides.
Sarri’s reign is already moving in the right direction. After a frustrating 0-0 draw with Hapoel Tel-Aviv in the first leg of their play-off, Atalanta followed up with a win over Sassuolo and then sealed qualification in the return leg, with Gianluca Scamacca scoring off the bench.
The switch to a 4-3-3 changes habits for a squad that has spent years playing with three at the back. Gianluca Gaetano, busy in the press against Sassuolo, is one of the faces of this new era.
The injury list is still sizeable: Isak Hien and Kamaldeen Sulemana are out, while Thomas Kristensen was hurt in the first leg of the play-off. Honest Ahanor, meanwhile, is being linked with Chelsea.
Sarri rotated on Thursday in the Conference League and should do so again, which would bring Scamacca, Davide Zappacosta and Charles De Ketelaere back into the side. Squad depth is one thing Tedesco does not yet really have.
There is one slight concern: Atalanta were not exactly ruthless at home toward the end of last season, with draws piling up. So Monday is the first proper test for this Sarri version.
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Bologna: a reshaped squad still looking for its groove 
Bologna lost Remo Freuler, Jhon Lucumi and Santiago Castro this summer, effectively tearing out the core of the side that finished eighth. Rebuilding that kind of spine in a matter of weeks is a big ask.
Artem Dovbyk and Roberto Piccoli have arrived to add firepower. The Ukrainian is still building up his fitness, which explains why the Italian started against Lazio.
Their opening game showed a team that can keep the ball without doing much damage with it. Thirty dangerous attacks and no goal tells the story. The waste is the problem right now.
Away from home, though, the record remains decent. Bologna are unbeaten in 9 of their last 11 away matches in all competitions, with 12 wins in their last 20 trips and an average of 1.65 goals scored per game.
Riccardo Orsolini remains the main attacking threat and he scored the winner in the 1-0 victory at Bergamo late last season. His duel with Atalanta’s left side will be one of the main battlegrounds.
Jonathan Rowe is right in the middle of a transfer saga: Atalanta have had two bids rejected for the English winger, who could still start against the club chasing him. Nicolo Casale is back from injury, while Oussama El Azzouzi is out with a thigh issue.
Tedesco is expected to go with a 4-2-3-1 designed to tighten the midfield, with Piccoli leading the line on his own. It is a shape that screams caution first, questions later.
Probable Atalanta XI: Carnesecchi ; Zappacosta, Kossounou, Scalvini, Bernasconi ; Ederson, Gaetano, Samardzic ; De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Raspadori
Probable Bologna XI: Skorupski ; Zortea, Helland, Heggem, Miranda ; Amondarain, Ferguson ; Orsolini, Odgaard, Rowe ; Piccoli
Serie A prediction Atalanta vs Bologna
Our prediction: Atalanta to win
Sixteen unbeaten in their last 20 home league games, and fewer than one goal conceded per match across 30 home outings: the New Balance Arena remains one of the toughest places to go in the division. Bologna arrive with three key men missing and a coach who has only one competitive match under his belt.
The preparation gap matters too. Atalanta have played three meaningful games since 20 August and have scored in all of them, while Bologna are still waiting for their first goal of the season despite putting 13 shots up against Lazio.
The main danger is Sarri’s expected rotation and Bologna’s encouraging recent record in Bergamo. But Atalanta’s options off the bench still look a level above what Tedesco can call on. Atalanta take the points.
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