- 1 Aston Villa vs Manchester City: four Villa wins in the last six meetings, and City top with 21 points
- 2 Aston Villa: unbeaten in five and a long injury list in defence
- 3 Manchester City: seven league wins from seven, four goals conceded to PSG
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: four Villa wins in the last six meetings, and City top with 21 points 
Aston Villa have beaten Manchester City four times in their last six meetings. The most recent was a 2-1 win on 24 May, and before that came 1-0 at Villa Park on 26 October 2025, 2-1 in December 2024 and 1-0 in December 2023. City’s two wins in that stretch were 4-1 in April 2024 and 2-1 in April 2025.
The league table points the other way. City have won all seven league games, 21 points from 21 and a goal difference of plus 12. Villa are 12th with eight points, two wins, two draws and three defeats, and a goal difference of minus four.
So which number matters more on Saturday? I’d lean on the table, but not by as much as the prices suggest. City are 1.70 to win, the draw is 3.80 and Villa are 4.50.
Both sides arrive from European nights with very different outcomes. Villa beat Fenerbahce 6-0 in the Champions League on 14 October. City lost 4-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain the same night, and have now conceded nine goals in their last five matches across all competitions.
Kick-off at Villa Park is 12:30 UK time on Saturday 24 October. Villa host Viking in the Champions League on Wednesday, three days before, and rotation is expected.
Aston Villa: unbeaten in five and a long injury list in defence 
Villa haven’t lost in five games in all competitions. They won 3-1 at Coventry in the Carabao Cup, 3-2 at Tottenham, drew 2-2 with Brentford, put six past Fenerbahce and then won 1-0 at Newcastle last weekend.
Three of those five games were away from home, and Villa won all three. Fifteen goals in five games is a big return, even with the Fenerbahce rout inflating it.
The squad is thinner than the run suggests. Maatsen (ankle), Onana (knee) and Ruggeri are out, and Harwood-Bellis, Madjo and Cissé are also unavailable. Wan-Bissaka (muscle), Hemmings (knee), Manzambi and Barkley are doubts.
That leaves Villa short at full-back on both sides. Against Doku on one flank and a City side averaging 2.6 goals per game, that’s a real problem, and a midweek game against Viking won’t help anyone’s legs.
Their record against City is the strongest argument for them. Villa have won three of the last four meetings, and the two most recent wins came by a single goal: 1-0 last October and 2-1 in May.
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Manchester City: seven league wins from seven, four goals conceded to PSG 
City’s league form is perfect. The last three league results read 5-3 against Sunderland, 3-0 at Liverpool and 3-2 against Ipswich last Saturday. They’ve scored 18 goals in five games across all competitions.
The defending is less convincing. Three conceded to Sunderland, two to Ipswich and four to PSG at the Etihad. Nine goals against in five games is a lot for a side that’s top of the league by some distance.
Antoine Semenyo is out for up to eight weeks with a knee injury. Otherwise the squad is in good shape, with no other injuries reported ahead of the trip to Birmingham.
Erling Haaland leads the line and is odds-on to score at any time. Rúben Dias has started each of the last three meetings with Villa, and the expected back line has him alongside Gvardiol and Guéhi, with O’Reilly at left-back.
City lost both of their last two visits to Villa Park in the league, 1-0 in October 2025 and 2-1 in December 2024. City scored one goal across those two games combined.
Probable lineup Aston Villa: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Manchester City: Donnarumma; Dias, Gvardiol, Guéhi, O’Reilly; Doku, Anderson, Fernández, Cherki; Haaland, Ndiaye
Free Premier League Prediction: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Our prediction: Manchester City to win (1.70)
I’m backing City, though not without respect for Villa’s record in this fixture. Seven wins from seven, 18 goals in their last five games and Haaland fit to start outweigh four results spread over almost three years.
Villa’s injuries decide it for me. Without Maatsen and Ruggeri, and with Wan-Bissaka a doubt, they’ll be patching up the full-back positions against Doku three days after a Champions League game. City conceded four to PSG, but Villa’s makeshift defence will struggle to keep their own sheet clean.
The price of 1.70 accepts that City concede. It only asks them to score one more than Villa, and they’ve done that in all seven league games this season.
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