- 1 Anaheim Ducks vs Buffalo Sabres: six goals allowed to the bottom team in the Pacific, against a Sabres team coming off a 41-shot night
- 2 Anaheim Ducks: 3.8 goals allowed per game over ten, and a penalty kill that has leaked ten power-play goals
- 3 Buffalo Sabres: Jack Quinn’s 11 points and a 69.2% penalty kill
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Anaheim Ducks vs Buffalo Sabres
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Anaheim Ducks vs Buffalo Sabres: six goals allowed to the bottom team in the Pacific, against a Sabres team coming off a 41-shot night 
Vancouver had won two games all season when it arrived in Anaheim on Tuesday. The Canucks left with a 6-5 overtime win, outshooting the Ducks 33-23, and Anaheim’s home record fell to 1-3-1.
Buffalo spent the same night in San Jose, beating the Sharks 2-0 and outshooting them 41-23. It was the Sabres’ first win in four games and their first regulation win since 12 October.
The two teams meet on Thursday 29 October at 10:00pm ET. Anaheim is 5-6-1 and fifth in the Pacific. Buffalo is 5-4-3 and seventh in the Atlantic, with five of its 12 games settled after regulation.
We think Buffalo deserves to be a clearer favourite than the price suggests. The Sabres are at 1.75 and the Ducks at 2.18, and the total is 6.5.
Past meetings have been open. Buffalo has won six of the last ten, six of those ten went over, and the most recent game, in Anaheim on 22 March, finished 6-5 to the Ducks in overtime.
Anaheim Ducks: 3.8 goals allowed per game over ten, and a penalty kill that has leaked ten power-play goals 
The Ducks have gone 3-6-1 over their last ten games. Over that run they’ve scored 3.0 goals a game and allowed 3.8, and they’ve been outshot on average, 24.2 shots for against 26.9.
The win at Philadelphia on 24 October, 5-4, ended a four-game losing streak that included a 4-1 loss in New Jersey, 3-2 at the Islanders and 5-2 at the Rangers. Tuesday’s defeat to Vancouver came straight after it.
Beckett Sennecke leads the team with six goals, three on the power play. Leo Carlsson has 13 points, ten of them assists, and Jackson LaCombe has nine points while logging more than 26 minutes a night on defense. Mikael Granlund adds eight points and Cutter Gauthier six.
Special teams haven’t held up. Anaheim allowed ten power-play goals through its first 11 games. Lukas Dostal has four wins with a 3.27 goals-against average and an .880 save percentage, while Ville Husso is 1-2-0 with a .886.
The building hasn’t helped them. Anaheim is 4-3-0 on the road and 1-3-1 at Honda Center, where the only win came before mid-October. Against the spread the Ducks are 7-5-0, so bettors have done better with them than the standings suggest.
The blue line is short. Pavel Mintyukov is on injured reserve, Ian Moore is out with no timetable, and Ryan Poehling is expected to miss six to eight weeks with an MCL sprain. Troy Terry is on long-term injured reserve with a hip injury.
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Buffalo Sabres: Jack Quinn’s 11 points and a 69.2% penalty kill 
Jack Quinn has six goals and 11 points in 11 games and leads Buffalo in both. Tage Thompson has five goals and nine points, Owen Power has two goals and seven assists from defense, and Noah Ostlund has eight points.
The record understates how close Buffalo has been. Five of the Sabres’ last ten games went past regulation: overtime losses in Washington and Montreal, a shootout loss in Montreal, and overtime wins in Toronto and against Minnesota. Since 10 October they’ve lost once in regulation, 3-1 to Philadelphia.
Road form has been steady. Buffalo is 2-1-3 away from home, taking at least a point in five of its six road games, and its only regulation loss on the road came before 6 October.
Their penalty kill is the weakness. It stops 69.2% of power plays and had allowed 12 goals in 11 games before San Jose. Buffalo also had 40 goals against through 11 games, and eight of its 12 games this season have gone over the total.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started the season with three wins in nine appearances and an .866 save percentage, so Tuesday’s shutout was a needed result. Colten Ellis has an .864 in two appearances, and Alex Lyon is out after a setback with an upper-body injury.
The forward group has holes too. Jiri Kulich is in concussion protocol, Sam Carrick is on injured reserve, and Justin Danforth missed Tuesday’s game with an upper-body injury. Defensemen Grzelcyk and Timmins are also out.
Probable lineup Anaheim Ducks: Dostal (G); Carlsson, Sennecke, Gauthier, Granlund, Killorn, McQueen; LaCombe, Helleson, Mitchell (from the last available lineup, not confirmed)
Probable lineup Buffalo Sabres: Luukkonen (G); Quinn, Thompson, Benson, Ostlund, Zucker, Doan; Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Zellweger (from Tuesday’s game, not confirmed)
Free NHL Prediction: Anaheim Ducks vs Buffalo Sabres
Our prediction: Buffalo Sabres to win (moneyline) at 1.75
We’re siding with Buffalo because the two most recent results point in opposite directions. The Sabres held San Jose to 23 shots and won 2-0 on the road; the Ducks gave up 33 shots and six goals at home to a team with two wins.
Anaheim’s 1-3-1 home record and the 3.8 goals it has allowed per game over ten games make it hard to back the Ducks here, even at 2.18. Buffalo has lost once in regulation since 10 October.
The Sabres’ penalty kill is what could cost us, since Sennecke has three power-play goals and Anaheim will get chances. We’d still take Buffalo at 1.75: the Sabres have outshot their last two opponents 62-57 on the road and taken points in five of six away games.
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