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Al-Nassr vs Al-Wasl AFC Champions League Elite prediction

Al-Nassr vs Al-Wasl – Free Football Prediction

Al-Nassr vs Al-Wasl: the last two meetings both finished 4-0

Al-Nassr lost 4-0 at Al-Ain on the opening night of this season’s AFC Champions League Elite. They recovered with a 3-1 win over Neftchi Fergana and go into matchday three eighth in the league phase.

Al-Wasl visit Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh on Monday 26 October, kick-off 6:15pm UK time. They arrive with nothing from two games, beaten 2-1 by Al Qadsiah and 3-1 by Al-Ahli.

The history leans one way. The sides have met four times, Al-Nassr have won three, and the last two both ended 4-0: in Riyadh in February 2025 in this competition, and away in April 2026 in the Champions League Two. Al-Wasl’s only win came in March 2019, 1-0 at home.

Their domestic form says they won’t be a soft touch. Al-Wasl are third in the UAE Pro League with 13 points from six matches, one behind Al-Jazira, and their 17 goals are the most in the division. Recent league outings brought a 5-2 win over Khorfakkan and a 3-0 win at Kalba.

Cristiano Ronaldo headed in the second goal of Friday’s 3-1 win at Al-Faisaly, a 49th-minute effort from a Joao Felix free kick that took his career total to 982, although the goal could yet be credited as an own goal. He’s in the predicted XI, but Al-Nassr have another Saudi league game three days later and rotation is possible.

The match odds make Al-Nassr 1.33 and Al-Wasl 8.35. I’d leave the home win alone at that price and look at whether the visitors can score.

Al-Nassr: five unbeaten in the league, five conceded in two Asian games Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr are second in the Saudi Pro League with 25 points, two behind Al-Hilal, and haven’t lost in their last five league matches.

The recent results are steady rather than spectacular: 3-0 against Al Draih, 1-0 against NEOM and the 3-1 at Al-Faisaly on Friday. Over their last six matches they’ve averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded.

The 3-1 home win over Neftchi Fergana restored some order after the trip to Al-Ain and gave them their first three points of the league phase.

The night in Al-Ain still sits on the record. Four goals went in that evening, and with the one Neftchi scored they’ve conceded five in two Champions League Elite games.

The squad is thinner than usual at the back. Sultan Al-Ghannam has a cruciate ligament injury and isn’t expected back until January. Mohamed Simakan has a leg problem and could miss out, and Kingsley Coman is doubtful with a hamstring injury after sitting out the last game.

Bento is expected in goal, with Khaibari and Samu in midfield and Mane, Felix and Angelo behind Ronaldo. Felix’s free kick set up Ronaldo’s header on Friday, the 982nd goal of a career that’s now 18 short of 1,000.

The coaching staff have kept around 80% of the same XI over the last six games. A league fixture three days after this one is the obvious reason that figure could drop on Monday.

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Al-Wasl: 17 league goals in six games, still pointless in Asia Al-Wasl

Rui Vitoria has a fully fit squad for the trip to Riyadh. That alone puts Al-Wasl in better shape than their hosts.

The goals have come freely in the league. Seventeen in six UAE Pro League games is the best return in the division, and over their last six matches they’ve averaged 2.33 goals a game, with more than two goals in five of them.

In Asia they’ve scored in both games and lost both. One goal against Al Qadsiah, one against Al-Ahli, and five conceded across the two.

Serginho, Nicolas Gimenez and Mehdi Taremi are expected to start in attack. Rilwan Popoola could come into midfield in place of Renato Tapia, alongside Puertas.

Their two most recent games against this opponent went badly. They didn’t score in either 4-0 defeat, and they conceded eight across the two games.

Vitoria has kept 85% of his starting XI over the last four matches, so the line-up should look familiar: Horkas in goal behind Hugo, Ivkovic, Bouftiny and Malheiro.

Probable lineup Al-Nassr: Bento; right-back to be confirmed, Al Amri, Martinez, Yahya; Khaibari, Samu; Mane, Felix, Angelo; Ronaldo
Probable lineup Al-Wasl: Horkas; Hugo, Ivkovic, Bouftiny, Malheiro; Popoola, Puertas; Serginho, Gimenez, Spadacio; Taremi

Free Football Prediction: Al-Nassr vs Al-Wasl

Our prediction: Both teams to score at 1.70

Al-Nassr should win this, but 1.33 is too short, and over 2.5 goals at 1.41 doesn’t clear the bar either. Both teams to score at 1.70 is the price worth taking.

Al-Wasl have scored in both of their Champions League Elite games and lead the UAE league for goals. Al-Nassr have conceded five in two games in this competition and could be without Simakan and Coman.

Al-Wasl failed to score in either of the last two meetings, which is the case against this pick. I’m still backing them to find one goal, because their attack arrives fully fit and Al-Nassr’s defence has already been opened up four times in one night in Asia this season.

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  • Photo Pierre Boulben - Editor in chief - Sports

    Former journalist for French newspaper L’équipe and ESPN, I have been the News Editor for MathOdds for the past two years. Mainly in charge of the news and previews coverage as well as our data powered sports trends and cheat-sheets.


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