- 1 AC Milan vs Inter: no Lautaro for the leaders’ chasers, no league defeat yet for Milan
- 2 AC Milan: unbeaten under Amorim, with eight players on the injury list
- 3 Inter: seven wins from eight without Lautaro, Pavard or Luis Henrique
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: AC Milan vs Inter
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
AC Milan vs Inter: no Lautaro for the leaders’ chasers, no league defeat yet for Milan 
Lautaro Martinez won’t play in Saturday’s derby. Inter’s captain picked up a thigh injury after the Champions League defeat to Club Brugge, he has already missed four matches, and his expected return date is around 10 November.
Inter have managed without him in the league. They’ve won seven and drawn one of their eight Serie A games for 22 points, scoring 23 and conceding ten, and on Sunday they came from behind to beat Fiorentina 2-1 at San Siro: Alex Jimenez put the visitors ahead on 64 minutes before Marcus Thuram and Piotr Zielinski scored in stoppage time.
Milan haven’t lost in the league either. Ruben Amorim’s side have 18 points from eight games, five wins and three draws, and they come into the week off a 2-0 win at Udinese on Sunday and a 3-2 home win over Atalanta seven days earlier.
The derby is at San Siro on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, with Milan as the home side. Both teams play on Wednesday first, Milan at home to Bologna and Inter away at Venezia, and both coaches have spent the week planning their rotation around Saturday.
The table adds weight to it. Lazio won 6-2 at Sassuolo on Tuesday to go top with 25 points from nine games, three ahead of Inter, who have a game in hand. Milan are fifth, four points behind Inter, and a home win would cut the gap to a single point.
Inter go in as favourites, around 2.06 on average across the market, with Milan at about 3.24 and the draw near 3.65. The last two league derbies both finished 1-0, in November 2025 and March 2026, and I think this one will be more open than either, mainly because of the injuries in Milan’s defence.
AC Milan: unbeaten under Amorim, with eight players on the injury list 
Amorim, the former Manchester United coach, has Milan unbeaten after eight league games, with 16 goals scored and seven conceded. Two of the three draws came away from home, 2-2 at Lazio on 12 September and 1-1 at Sassuolo on 11 October.
At San Siro, they beat Lecce 3-0 on 20 September and Atalanta 3-2 on 18 October. Atalanta scored twice in that game, and those are two of only seven league goals Milan have conceded all season.
The injury list is long. Matteo Gabbia has a hamstring strain that should keep him out until around February, Alexis Saelemaekers and Samuel Chukwueze are both out for months, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek has a muscle tear with a return pencilled in for mid-November. Adrien Rabiot, Mario Gila and Diego Moreira are all hoping to make the derby, but the club has said it won’t take risks.
Gabbia and Gila are both centre-backs, which is why the defence is the concern. At Udinese, Amorim used a back five of Koni De Winter, Diawara, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic and Davide Bartesaghi, and Pavlovic has played every match this season. Mike Maignan is suspended for the Europa League game against Ferencvaros but available for both league matches this week.
Luka Modric is likely to be rested against Bologna so that he’s fresh for Saturday. He partnered Ardon Jashari in midfield at Udinese, with Hutchinson, Ramos and Christian Pulisic ahead of them, and Yunus Musah is set to come into the side on Wednesday.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Inter: seven wins from eight without Lautaro, Pavard or Luis Henrique 
Inter’s league results read like a side that scores its way out of trouble. They beat Napoli 3-2 on 5 September and Udinese 5-3 nine days later, drew 2-2 in Rome on 19 September, then beat Parma 3-0, Bologna 3-1 away and Fiorentina 2-1. Ten goals conceded in eight games is respectable, but they let in at least two in three of them.
Lautaro isn’t the only absentee. Benjamin Pavard has an adductor problem and isn’t due back until around 6 November, and Luis Henrique is out until mid-November with the same kind of injury. Curtis Jones and John Stones are close to returning but haven’t trained with the squad yet and are being assessed day by day.
Cristian Chivu is rotating at Venezia with the derby in mind. Thuram is expected to start on the bench on Wednesday and play no more than half an hour, with Francesco Pio Esposito and Bonny leading the line, and Hakan Calhanoglu could sit out again. Akanji is set to rest too.
For Saturday, Thuram is expected back up front with Pio Esposito, Diouf on the right and Federico Dimarco on the left. Josep Martínez should return in goal after Provedel started the last two games, and Zielinski is in contention to play in central midfield alongside Nicolò Barella, who has been wearing the captain’s armband.
Alessandro Bastoni is suspended for the Champions League trip to Rotterdam next Tuesday, which frees him to play both Serie A games this week. Akanji and Yann Bisseck are expected to play either side of him, with Bastoni’s exact position deciding who goes where.
Probable lineup AC Milan: Maignan; De Winter, Diawara, Tomori, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi; Modric, Jashari; Hutchinson, Ramos, Pulisic
Probable lineup Inter: Josep Martínez; Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Calhanoglu, Zielinski, Dimarco; Thuram, Pio Esposito
Free Serie A Prediction: AC Milan vs Inter
Our prediction: Inter to win (2.06)
Inter have the better squad for this particular week. Their attack has scored 23 goals in eight league games even with Lautaro missing for the last four matches, and Thuram is being kept fresh specifically for Saturday. Milan have scored 16 in the same number of games, seven fewer than Inter.
Milan’s unbeaten record is the strongest argument against the pick, and both of the last two league derbies went 1-0. I still side with Inter, because Amorim is without two centre-backs in Gabbia and Gila, plus Rabiot in midfield unless he recovers in time, and Atalanta showed on 18 October that this defence can be opened up.
Lazio’s lead also gives Chivu’s side a clear reason to go for the win rather than settle for a point. At 2.06, an Inter win is the price we’d take.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of AC Milan and Inter on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply