- 1 Aberdeen vs Falkirk: ninth against seventh, and the visitors have the better recent record
- 2 Aberdeen: 13 goals for Nisbet, a semi-final on Saturday and a mixed home record
- 3 Falkirk: one defeat in six and unbeaten on their last three away trips
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Aberdeen vs Falkirk
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Aberdeen vs Falkirk: ninth against seventh, and the visitors have the better recent record 
Falkirk beat Kilmarnock 3-0 on Saturday in wind and torrential rain, with two Kilmarnock own goals either side of a Jacob Murrell header. It was their third win in five league games and moved John McGlynn’s side up to seventh.
They travel to Pittodrie on Wednesday, kick-off 19:45 UK time, one point and two places above Aberdeen. Falkirk have 12 points from ten games, while Aberdeen have 11, from three wins, two draws and five defeats, and sit ninth.
The two clubs have gone in opposite directions since early September. Falkirk failed to win any of their first five league games and went out of the League Cup in the group stage, but they’ve lost one of their last six since. Aberdeen reached the League Cup semi-finals and face Rangers at Hampden on Saturday, while their league form has drifted.
Stephen Robinson’s side lost 3-2 at Dundee United on Saturday, their fifth league defeat. Aberdeen trailed twice and twice pulled level, through Nesta Guinness-Walker on 25 minutes and Connor Ronan on 56, before Zac Sapsford headed the winner on 72.
Recent meetings also favour the visitors: Falkirk have won two and drawn one of the last three games between the sides, and they’re unbeaten in their last three away league matches.
We’d also factor in the calendar, because Aberdeen have a cup semi-final three days after this game, and the home side’s league results at Pittodrie are ordinary: two wins, a draw and two defeats from five, with five scored and four conceded.
Aberdeen: 13 goals for Nisbet, a semi-final on Saturday and a mixed home record 
Kevin Nisbet has scored 13 times in all competitions, comfortably Aberdeen’s top scorer. The league has been harder for the team around him: ten games, 11 points and a goal difference that has slipped since Saturday.
The last six league results show the swings. Aberdeen drew 0-0 at home to Kilmarnock, won 4-0 at Motherwell, drew 1-1 at Hibernian, lost 1-0 at home to St Johnstone, beat St Mirren 3-1 at Pittodrie and then lost at Tannadice.
At Dundee United they conceded from a deflected 25-yard shot by Zidane Iqbal, a Dylan Tait volley from a corner and a Sapsford header from a Tait cross. Ronan’s goal on 56 minutes, a low shot from 22 yards set up by substitute Elliot Smith, was the best moment of their afternoon.
The League Cup has been their strongest competition. Aberdeen won all three home ties on the way to the semi-finals, beating Dundee and Kilmarnock, and Robinson now has a Hampden date with Rangers on Saturday to plan around.
Kristers Tobers is out with a knee injury and the rest of the squad is available, so Robinson can pick Nisbet and Ayoub Mouloua together up front with Ronan, Brad Lyons and Afeez in midfield.
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Falkirk: one defeat in six and unbeaten on their last three away trips 
Falkirk’s last six league games read: 1-1 at Dundee United, 2-1 at home to Hearts, 1-1 at St Johnstone, a 2-1 home defeat to Dundee, 2-1 at Hibernian and 3-0 at home to Kilmarnock. Eleven points from six matches is top-half form over that stretch, and it follows an opening run of three defeats and two draws in their first five league games.
Murrell’s header on Saturday came off the underside of the bar from a Ryan Strain corner and was his fifth league goal of the season. McGlynn has said the striker is adjusting well after his move from America.
Set-pieces did most of the damage against Kilmarnock. The first goal came when Cathal McCarthy deflected Murrell’s header past his own goalkeeper on 29 minutes, and the third arrived when George Stanger turned a Deniss Melniks header into his own net from a free-kick.
The away form is the reason we’re siding with Falkirk. A draw at Dundee United, a draw at St Johnstone and a win at Hibernian make up the three-game unbeaten run on the road, and Pittodrie hasn’t been a fortress for Aberdeen this season.
McGlynn is expected to name an unchanged side. Aidan Nesbitt, Aodhan Doherty, Ethan Laidlaw, Joe Gardner and Keelan Adams are all unavailable.
Probable lineup Aberdeen: Muller; Cadden, Milne, Ronan, Molloy, Guinness-Walker; Lyons, Afeez, Armstrong; Nisbet, Mouloua
Probable lineup Falkirk: Bain; Strain, Neilson, Henderson, McCann; Spencer, Melniks; Ross, Barbrook, Eames; Murrell
Free Football Prediction: Aberdeen vs Falkirk
Our prediction: Falkirk or draw (double chance X2)
Falkirk have lost one of their last six league games and none of their last three away. They’ve won two and drawn one of the last three meetings with Aberdeen, and they sit above their hosts in the table. In each of those three away games, at Dundee United, St Johnstone and Hibernian, McGlynn’s side conceded exactly once.
Aberdeen have Nisbet, and his 13 goals are the strongest argument for a home win. Against that, their league form has produced one win in four, and Saturday’s semi-final against Rangers gives Robinson a reason to manage minutes on Wednesday.
We think the market’s natural lean towards the home side overstates Pittodrie this season. Falkirk or the draw is the pick, with a low-scoring game the likeliest outcome. Aberdeen’s home league games have averaged under two goals, and Falkirk’s last six matches have produced no more than three goals in any of them.
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