- 1 India vs Uruguay: a 118-place gap in the rankings and Forlan’s third away trip
- 2 India: never more than one goal in six games and a defence that always concedes
- 3 Uruguay: one win in nine and heavy rotation without Valverde
- 4 Free Football Prediction: India vs Uruguay
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
India vs Uruguay: a 118-place gap in the rankings and Forlan’s third away trip 
India host Uruguay on Tuesday 6 October at the Salt Lake Stadium in Kolkata, with kick-off at 16:00 Paris time. It is the final game of the international window for both nations.
On paper, the gap is enormous. Uruguay sit 118 places above India in the FIFA rankings, and the betting market treats an away win as close to a formality.
Both teams, though, arrive with something to fix. India are six games without a win, while Uruguay only ended an eight-game winless run last week.
That win was emphatic. Diego Forlan’s side thrashed South Korea 4-1 in Seoul, their first four-goal performance in two years, after opening the new era with a 3-1 defeat in Japan.
India’s latest outing went the other way. Brazil beat Khalid Jamil’s side 4-0, a result that underlined how hard it is for the Blue Tigers to compete against South American opposition.
The two nations have barely crossed paths at senior level, so there is little shared history to lean on. Current form and the selection choices on each bench matter far more than past meetings here.
With the winner not really in doubt, this preview focuses on the number of goals. India rarely score, Uruguay are rotating, and the recent scorelines of both sides point to a game without fireworks.
India: never more than one goal in six games and a defence that always concedes 
India opened this window with a 1-1 draw against Panama. Ryan Williams scored first, before Omar Valencia equalised in the second half.
Brazil was a step up in every department. Estevao and Pedro scored in the first half, and Samuel Lino added a second-half brace to complete a 4-0 win.
The wider trend is worrying for Jamil. India have not won since beating Hong Kong 2-1 in the final game of their failed Asian Cup qualifying campaign, and the summer brought a 1-0 loss to Zimbabwe and a 3-1 defeat in Tajikistan.
Zimbabwe and Tajikistan both sit far below Uruguay in the world order, which puts Tuesday’s task into perspective.
Two numbers sum up the problem. India have not scored more than once in any of their last six games, and they have conceded in each of their last 13 internationals.
Captain Gurpreet Singh Sandhu is expected to start in goal ahead of Prabhsukhan Singh Gill, who played the second half against Brazil. Jay Gupta and Valpuia are options if Jamil changes his full-backs.
In attack, Vikram Partap Singh and Mohammed Sanan could freshen things up around Williams and Manvir Singh. The aim is less about the result and more about preparing for the SAFF Championship, which starts in November.
Expect India to defend in numbers and look for transitions through Williams. The trouble is that a side conceding in 13 straight internationals rarely survives 90 minutes intact, even when it keeps the score down.
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Uruguay: one win in nine and heavy rotation without Valverde 
Uruguay’s World Cup ended in the group stage for the second tournament running. They drew with Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde, then lost 1-0 to Spain, collecting just two points.
That campaign closed Marcelo Bielsa’s three-year tenure. The federation handed the job to Diego Forlan, one of the most celebrated players in the country’s history.
Forlan’s start was rough, with a 3-1 defeat in Japan stretching the winless run to eight games. Before the win in Seoul, Uruguay had drawn five and lost three of those eight.
The 4-1 in South Korea came from a Darwin Nunez brace, a Giorgian de Arrascaeta goal and an own goal. It was a welcome release, yet it remains the only game in two years where Uruguay have scored four.
Federico Valverde is out with the ankle injury he picked up in the Madrid derby before the window. Forlan is also expected to spread minutes across the squad in this final game.
Santiago Mele, Jose Maria Gimenez, Santiago Mourino and Sanabria are among those who could start. Facundo Bernal, Rodrigo Zalazar, Facundo Pellistri and Federico Vinas are also in line for a run-out.
Nunez’s place in the starting eleven is not guaranteed after his brace in Seoul, with Vinas in line to lead the line. Bentancur, Olivera and Piquerez provide the experienced spine that should keep the visitors organised.
A rotated eleven, a long trip to Kolkata and a game with little at stake rarely produce a goal festival. Uruguay will want a clean sheet too, having gone five games without one.
Probable lineup India: Gurpreet Singh Sandhu; Valpuia, Varghese, Ali, Gupta; Apuia, Thapa; Vikram Partap Singh, Williams, Sanan; Manvir Singh
Probable lineup Uruguay: Mele; Mourino, Gimenez, Olivera, Piquerez; Bernal, Bentancur; Pellistri, Zalazar, Araujo; Vinas
Free Football Prediction: India vs Uruguay
Our prediction: Under 3.5 goals (odds 2.63)
Uruguay should win, but the moneyline offers no value at all. The goal line is where the angle is, because neither side’s recent numbers support a high-scoring evening.
India have not scored more than once in six games, so the home contribution is likely to be one goal at most. Uruguay, meanwhile, have hit four only once in two years, and a heavily rotated side without Valverde is unlikely to break that pattern in Kolkata.
A 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1 Uruguay win all land this bet. At 2.63, Under 3.5 goals is the smart way to back the expected script of a controlled away win.
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