- 1 Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the league’s Over machine meets a rookie quarterback
- 2 Dallas Cowboys: a top-five offense paired with one of the league’s worst defenses
- 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-4, no Mayfield and an offense stuck in the bottom three
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the league’s Over machine meets a rookie quarterback 
Week 5 opens with Thursday Night Football at AT&T Stadium. The Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday 8 October at 8:15 p.m. ET, which means a 02:15 kick-off in Paris on Friday morning, live on Prime Video.
The two teams arrive in very different moods. Dallas are 2-2 after a 34-30 win in Houston, while Tampa Bay are 0-4 and already chasing the NFC South from a long way back.
The quarterback situation shapes everything. Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in Week 3 and is expected to miss three to six weeks, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his second career start.
Dallas, in contrast, have Dak Prescott in rhythm and CeeDee Lamb coming off a franchise record. Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown in Houston, beating the 16 receptions Jason Witten managed in 2012.
The market leans heavily towards the hosts. The Cowboys are 10-point favourites, priced at 1.16 on the moneyline, with the Buccaneers at 5.55 and the total set at 47.5 points.
There is a second story behind the spread. Dallas score a lot, but they also concede a lot, and that profile matters more for this game than the gap between the two records.
Dallas Cowboys: a top-five offense paired with one of the league’s worst defenses 
The Cowboys’ season has been a rollercoaster. They lost 28-20 at the New York Giants, beat Washington 37-20, then fell 34-31 to Baltimore in Rio de Janeiro on a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer.
Sunday’s win in Houston got them back to .500, and they did it as underdogs. Prescott and Lamb carried the offense, with Lamb drawing 21 targets on his own.
Through four games, Lamb has 37 catches on 46 targets for almost 500 yards and has caught at least five passes every week. George Pickens and Jake Ferguson give Prescott two more reliable options when coverage rolls towards Lamb.
Prescott was already sharp before Houston, with 730 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception across the first three games. The offense ranks among the top five in the league in efficiency per play.
The problem sits on the other side of the ball. Dallas rank in the bottom three in defensive efficiency, have allowed at least 20 points every week and 28 or more in three of four games.
The run defense has been a soft spot as well, giving up 5.0 yards per carry before Week 4. Safety Jalen Thompson and defensive lineman Jonathan Bullard are on injured reserve, while DeMarvion Overshown and Cobie Durant are questionable.
Cornerback Joey Porter Jr., acquired from Pittsburgh before Week 4, should help over time. One trade does not fix a unit that has given up 112 points in four games, and the Over has landed in every Dallas game this season.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-4, no Mayfield and an offense stuck in the bottom three 
Tampa Bay have lost all four games, and every one of them by a single score. They went down 33-27 in Cincinnati, 23-19 to Cleveland, 23-16 to Minnesota and 17-14 to Green Bay last Sunday.
Mayfield’s injury came on a fourth-and-13 interception late in the Minnesota game. He is listed as doubtful, and the expected timeline keeps him out well beyond Thursday.
Daniels was not bad against Green Bay. He completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown, and added 55 rushing yards on eight carries.
The two interceptions were the difference. Both led to Packers scores worth 10 points in total, in a game Tampa Bay lost by three.
The wider numbers are worrying. The Buccaneers rank in the bottom three in offensive efficiency per play and have yet to cover the spread in four attempts this season.
Receiver Jalen McMillan is out for six to eight weeks with a knee injury, which leaves Emeka Egbuka as the clear top target. Bucky Irving gives the offense a dual threat out of the backfield, with 40 carries and 13 catches through three weeks.
The path to points is there, though. A Dallas defense that leaks yards on the ground suits a run-first plan built around Irving and Daniels’ legs, and Tampa Bay still produced 14 points against a better Green Bay unit.
Probable lineup Dallas Cowboys: Not announced at time of publication (QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR George Pickens, TE Jake Ferguson expected)
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Not announced at time of publication (QB Jalon Daniels, RB Bucky Irving, WR Emeka Egbuka expected)
Free NFL Prediction: Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our prediction: Over 47.5 points (odds 1.91)
The Over is 4-0 in Dallas games this season, and the reasons behind it have not changed. The Cowboys own a top-five offense and a bottom-three defense, a combination that produces points at both ends.
Dallas have scored at least 20 in every game and look capable of reaching 30 at home against a Tampa Bay side without its starting quarterback. That leaves the Buccaneers needing around 18 points, a realistic target against a defense that has conceded 28 or more three times already.
Laying 10 points with the Cowboys is tempting, but a backdoor touchdown can ruin that bet. At 1.91, Over 47.5 points is the cleaner way to follow the strengths and weaknesses of this Dallas team.
in your pocket.
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