- 1 Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: a rematch seven days after a 1-1 in Kaunas
- 2 Azerbaijan Analysis
- 3 Lithuania Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: a rematch seven days after a 1-1 in Kaunas 
Azerbaijan host Lithuania in Baku on Sunday 4 October in Group 2 of League D of the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is at 15:00 Paris time.
The two teams met just a week ago in Kaunas. That game finished 1-1, with both goals scored in the opening 15 minutes and nothing changing after that.
The table gives Lithuania a small lead. They have four points from two games, while Azerbaijan have two after back-to-back draws.
The stakes, however, are lower than the standings suggest. With the format change after the 2026-27 season, every team in League D will be promoted to League C regardless of where it finishes.
The head-to-head record is short and balanced. The nations have met four times, with one win each and two draws, and the last two meetings both ended level.
Lithuania have still never lost to Azerbaijan, a record that stretches back to their first meeting in June 1998. Azerbaijan, for their part, have not lost when hosting Lithuania.
So this is a fixture where two small edges point in opposite directions. Understanding which one matters more is the key to the prediction.
The market reflects how close this is. SportyTrader lists Azerbaijan around 2.30, the draw around 3.24 and Lithuania around 3.26, depending on the bookmaker.
The last meeting was decided very early, with both goals inside the first 15 minutes. After that, neither side found a way through for more than an hour.
Sports Mole and Football Whispers both predict another 1-1. SportyTrader leans towards Azerbaijan or the draw, citing the hosts’ record against this opponent in Baku.
Azerbaijan Analysis 
Aykhan Abbasov’s side were relegated from League C after going winless in the previous edition. They are now without a win in eight consecutive Nations League matches across Leagues C and D.
Their wider form is better than that run suggests. SportyTrader notes they are unbeaten in four matches overall, including a 1-0 friendly win over Tajikistan on 23 September.
The two Nations League games so far were the 1-1 in Kaunas and a goalless home draw with Liechtenstein on 1 October. That second result shows how hard Azerbaijan find it to break down deep defences.
Goals are the real concern. Across their last six matches Azerbaijan average 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, with five of those six games staying under 2.5 goals.
Emin Mahmudov is the most likely focal point after starting on the bench last week. The Neftci player has 16 international goals, more than anyone else in the squad.
The squad is reported to be in good health after the two September games. Abbasov should therefore be able to pick from a full group in Baku.
Azerbaijan have lost only once in their last six home games, winning three. That home record is the main reason several previews lean towards the hosts avoiding defeat.
Emreli scored Azerbaijan’s only goal of the Nations League campaign so far, and Mutallimov provided the assist. Both are expected to start again in Baku.
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Lithuania Analysis 
Edgaras Jankauskas’s team started the campaign with a 2-0 win in Liechtenstein on 24 September. That result ended a run of six straight defeats in the Nations League.
The 1-1 against Azerbaijan followed, and Lithuania then warmed up for this rematch with a 3-0 friendly win over Andorra on 30 September. The mood in the camp is clearly better than a few months ago.
Away form remains the weak point. SportyTrader counts seven defeats in Lithuania’s last ten matches on the road, a number that cannot be ignored before a trip to Baku.
Armandas Kucys leads the attack with seven international goals, the highest total in the squad. Gvidas Gineitis, who plays for Torino in Serie A, adds quality and creativity from midfield.
Lithuania also have a habit of starting well. Football Whispers notes they have scored first in four of their last five matches, which matters in a game that could be decided by one goal.
Their defensive numbers in the competition are solid, with only one goal conceded in two games. A disciplined back three should again make life difficult for Azerbaijan.
Kucys, Dolznikov and Michelbrink have each scored once in the competition, while Gineitis and Kucys have one assist each. Lithuania spread the threat rather than relying on one source.
Their games also tend to be low scoring, with five of their last six staying under 2.5 goals. That profile fits a tight contest in Baku.
Probable lineup Azerbaijan: Balayev; Mutallimov, Badalov, Kryvotsyuk, Bayramov; Khaybulayev, Mahmudov; Emreli, Sadykhov, Isgandarli; Qurbanli
Probable lineup Lithuania: Bartkus; Armalas, Utkus, Tutyskinas; Lickunas, Michelbrink, Gineitis, Lasickas; Slivka, Dolznikov; Kucys
Free Football Prediction: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
Our prediction: Draw (odds around 3.24)
The last two meetings ended level, the most recent only seven days ago, and both teams are unbeaten in this Nations League campaign. Azerbaijan struggle to score, while Lithuania travel poorly, and those two weaknesses tend to cancel each other out.
The bookmakers’ prices reflect that balance, with Azerbaijan around 2.30 and Lithuania above 3.10 according to SportyTrader. Sports Mole and Football Whispers both go for a 1-1, which matches our own reading of the game.
With little at stake in the standings and two sides that are hard to beat, the draw offers the best value. At around 3.24, it is our pick for Sunday in Baku.
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