- 1 Greece vs Germany: the group leader hosts the side it beat ten days ago
- 2 Greece Analysis
- 3 Germany Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Greece vs Germany
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Greece vs Germany: the group leader hosts the side it beat ten days ago 
Seven points from three matches. That is the return Greece bring into Sunday’s meeting with Germany, kick-off at 20:45 Paris time, on matchday four of League A Group 2 in the Nations League.
Germany sit third on four points, three behind. The gap is not decisive yet, but a second defeat to the same opponent inside two weeks would leave Jurgen Klopp’s side chasing the group with two games left.
The context matters because this is a return fixture. Late in September, Greece won 1-0 on German soil, and both Sports Mole and RueDesJoueurs describe that result as the first win in the history of the fixture for the Greeks.
The data from the opening three rounds tells a coherent story. Greece won 2-1 in Belgrade with a stoppage-time goal, beat Germany away, then led the Netherlands 2-0 on Thursday before conceding twice and settling for 2-2.
Germany’s path has been less linear. A 1-1 draw in Amsterdam, a home defeat to Greece, then a first win of the campaign on Thursday, 2-0 against Serbia in Munich.
The bookmakers still lean heavily towards the visitors. RueDesJoueurs lists Germany at 1.86, the draw at 3.85 and Greece at 3.80, a price structure that rests more on reputation than on what happened between these two sides ten days ago.
That disconnect is the analytical question of this match. Form, momentum and the head-to-head of this campaign favour Greece; squad depth and individual quality favour Germany.
Germany’s record in this competition also tempers expectations. RueDesJoueurs notes that their best Nations League finish is fourth, reached in the last edition after a 2-0 defeat to France in the third-place match.
Greece, for their part, reached League A through a promotion play-off against Scotland, won 3-1 on aggregate. That route shows a group that has learned to win tight, high-stakes matches before this campaign even started.
Greece Analysis 
Ivan Jovanovic’s side are unbeaten in this Nations League campaign, with two wins and a draw. Sports Mole lists their recent run in all competitions as DDLWWD, which also shows how quickly the team has turned a flat summer around.
RueDesJoueurs notes that Greece had gone five matches without a win before this international window. The shift since late September has been sharp, and it has come against two of the biggest names in the group.
The main concern is the absence of Christos Tzolis. The Arsenal winger scored in the opening match and was forced off against the Netherlands, and both sources expect him to miss Sunday.
Georgios Masouras is the logical replacement on the flank. He scored against the Netherlands on Thursday, and Sports Mole credits him with an assist in the same game.
The spine of the side should stay intact. Konstantinos Mavropanos in central defence, Kostas Tsimikas at left-back and Konstantinos Karetsas in midfield are all expected to be available, according to RueDesJoueurs.
The one statistical weakness sits up front. Vangelis Pavlidis has not scored for his country since September 2025, which places more of the scoring load on Fotis Ioannidis and the wide players.
The collapse against the Netherlands also deserves attention. Leading 2-0 at the break and drawing 2-2 shows a side that can lose its grip late, a factor Germany’s bench could exploit.
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Germany Analysis 
Germany are a team in transition under Jurgen Klopp, who replaced Julian Nagelsmann. Their record across the last six games in all competitions reads WLLDLW, according to Sports Mole.
The summer World Cup ended early. RueDesJoueurs recalls that Germany went out in the round of 32 against Paraguay on penalties after a 1-1 draw, despite a run of eleven straight wins beforehand.
The win over Serbia on Thursday gave Klopp his first victory in this competition. Tom Bischof scored before half-time and Florian Wirtz added the second on the hour mark.
The absence list is long. Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala are out injured, Nico Schlotterbeck has withdrawn, and Manuel Neuer, Antonio Rudiger and Pascal Gross have retired from international football, per RueDesJoueurs.
Klopp has also been rotating heavily. Sports Mole expects changes for this final match of the window, with Serge Gnabry and Wirtz likely to start and Nick Woltemade possibly leading the line again.
The likely XI includes several players with limited international experience, such as goalkeeper Jonas Urbig and winger Said El Mala, who would earn only his second cap. That is a lot of inexperience for a trip to the group leaders.
Germany’s attacking output in this campaign also stays modest. Three goals in three matches, two of them against the group’s bottom side, is not the profile of a team running over opponents.
Probable lineup Greece: Tzolakis; Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Kourbelis, Androutsos, Masouras; Pavlidis, Ioannidis
Probable lineup Germany: Urbig; Treu, Thiaw, Anton, Raum; Gnabry, Pavlovic, Bischof, El Mala; Woltemade, Wirtz
Free Football Prediction: Greece vs Germany
Our prediction: Greece or draw (double chance) at 1.74
The market prices Germany as clear favourites, but the evidence from this campaign points the other way. Greece have taken seven points from three games, beat this exact opponent away ten days ago, and now play at home with a settled core.
Germany arrive without Havertz, Musiala or Schlotterbeck, with a rotated side and several inexperienced starters. Their first win of the campaign came against a Serbia team that has lost every group game, which says little about their level against a well-organised side.
The absence of Tzolis is a real loss, but Masouras has already shown he can carry the flank. Covering Greece on the double chance at 1.74 is the most logical reading of the data, with Sports Mole even going one step further and calling a 2-1 home win.
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