- 1 Netherlands vs Serbia: an unbeaten Oranje against a side that concedes two every game
- 2 Netherlands Analysis
- 3 Serbia Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Netherlands vs Serbia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Netherlands vs Serbia: an unbeaten Oranje against a side that concedes two every game 
Serbia have conceded exactly two goals in each of their three Nations League matches. That single figure frames Sunday’s visit to the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven, kick-off at 20:45 Paris time, on matchday four of League A Group 2.
The Netherlands sit second on five points, two behind leaders Greece. Serbia are bottom with zero points after three defeats, and a fourth would all but end their hopes in the group.
This is a return fixture, played just seven days after the first meeting. On 27 September in Belgrade, the Dutch won 2-1, the first competitive meeting ever between the two nations according to Sports Mole and Bet Experts.
The fixture list explains the stakes for Xavi Hernandez. His side face Greece at home and Germany away in November, so dropping points here would leave the group largely out of their hands.
Fatigue is a factor worth noting. Bet Experts points out that the Netherlands will have played four matches in eleven days by Sunday night, after a demanding 2-2 draw with Greece on Thursday.
The bookmakers see a one-sided contest. RueDesJoueurs lists the Netherlands at 1.18 and the draw at 8.00, while Bet Experts shows a best price of 16.30 for a Serbia win.
With the home win priced that short, the analytical value sits elsewhere. The goals data from both teams’ campaigns is where the more interesting reading of this match lies.
The form lines summarise the gap. Sports Mole lists WWLDWD for the Netherlands in all competitions, against WLLLLL for Serbia.
The two main previews agree on the winner but not on the scoreline. Sports Mole expects a 2-0 home win, while Bet Experts leans towards a match with at least three goals, and the difference comes down to Serbia’s ability to score.
Netherlands Analysis 
Xavi was appointed on 12 August, the first foreign coach of the Netherlands since Ernst Happel in 1978, per Bet Experts. After three games he remains unbeaten, with one win and two draws.
His debut on 24 September ended 1-1 against Germany in Amsterdam, saved by a Cody Gakpo volley in stoppage time. Three days later came the 2-1 win in Belgrade, built on two goals from Mexx Meerdink.
Thursday’s draw with Greece showed both sides of this team. Two goals down at half-time, the Dutch came back through Virgil van Dijk on 59 minutes and substitute Tijjani Reijnders on 89.
The defensive record is less convincing. Four goals conceded in three matches, according to RueDesJoueurs, is a high figure for a side with this level of individual quality at the back.
Injuries have hit the front line. Gakpo and Brian Brobbey are both unavailable, which places the AZ striker Meerdink, with two goals in his first two caps, at the centre of the attack.
Sports Mole expects three changes. Ryan Gravenberch, Noa Lang and Reijnders are all tipped to start after their impact against Greece.
The historical record supports the hosts. The Netherlands have lost only three of their 26 Nations League matches, and they reached the final in the 2018-19 edition.
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Serbia Analysis 
Veljko Paunovic’s side are in a deep slump. Bet Experts counts five consecutive defeats, a run that covers friendlies against Cape Verde and Mexico as well as all three group games.
The group stage has followed the same pattern. Serbia led Greece through Andrija Zivkovic after four minutes on 24 September, then lost 2-1 to a stoppage-time winner in Belgrade.
Against the Netherlands three days later, Luka Jovic equalised straight after half-time. Meerdink’s second goal then left Serbia beaten 2-1 again, at home.
Thursday in Munich was the low point. Germany won 2-0 through Tom Bischof before half-time and Florian Wirtz on 61 minutes, and Serbia failed to score for the first time in the group.
The longer view is just as bleak. Sports Mole notes that their last win came in a friendly against Saudi Arabia in March, and their last competitive victory dates back to November 2025, 2-1 against Latvia.
There is at least some stability in the squad. No new injury concerns have been reported, with Jovic, who has 12 international goals, expected to lead the line again.
Serbia have scored in two of their three group games. That detail matters for this match, because they have rarely been shut out even while losing.
Probable lineup Netherlands: Verbruggen; Dumfries, J. Timber, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Veerman, Gravenberch; Summerville, Reijnders, Lang; Meerdink
Probable lineup Serbia: Petkovic; Nedeljkovic, Erakovic, Gudelj, Babic, Kostic; Zivkovic, Maksimovic, Dzodic, Tadic; Jovic
Free Football Prediction: Netherlands vs Serbia
Our prediction: 3 to 5 goals in the match at 1.75
The home win at 1.18 carries no value, so the pick moves to the goals market. Serbia have conceded two in every group game, and every match involving them so far has produced at least two goals.
The Netherlands have conceded in all three games under Xavi and have scored in all of them as well. Their three matches produced two, three and four goals, a trend that fits a three to five goal range almost perfectly.
The return of Gravenberch, Reijnders and Lang adds attacking quality, while a tired Dutch back line has already shown it can be opened up. A 2-1 or 3-1 home win looks like the most coherent scenario, and 3 to 5 goals at 1.75 covers it.
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