- 1 Switzerland vs Slovenia: a top-of-the-table clash in Lucerne
- 2 Switzerland Analysis
- 3 Slovenia Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Switzerland vs Slovenia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Switzerland vs Slovenia: a top-of-the-table clash in Lucerne 
Switzerland host Slovenia on Saturday 3 October at the Swissporarena in Lucerne, with kick-off at 20:45 Paris time. This third matchday of League B Group 1 brings together the two sides at the top of the table.
Switzerland lead with six points from two games, after back-to-back 3-0 wins. Slovenia are second and still unbeaten, so a visiting win would actually move them above the Swiss.
The stakes go beyond this match. Switzerland were relegated from League A after their previous Nations League campaign, and the Football Faithful notes that this fixture could prove decisive in the race for promotion back to the top tier.
The two teams know each other well. Switzerland topped the World Cup qualifying group in which Slovenia finished a distant third, and they won 3-0 when Slovenia visited just over a year ago.
History is firmly on the home side. Including that defeat, Slovenia have lost four of their last six meetings with Switzerland, according to Sports Mole.
Both camps have big absences, though, and they shape the way this match is likely to be played. Understanding who is missing on each side is the key to finding the right betting angle.
Switzerland Analysis 
Switzerland opened their campaign with a 3-0 home win over North Macedonia. They then won 3-0 at Hampden Park on Tuesday, after Scotland played more than 80 minutes with 10 men.
Defenders Ricardo Rodriguez and Nico Elvedi scored in Glasgow before Zeki Amdouni added a late third. Amdouni now has three goals in two games, plus one assist according to the Football Faithful.
Murat Yakin’s side are ranked 14th by FIFA after reaching the quarter-finals of this summer’s World Cup. Their numbers in this campaign are dominant: an average of 65% possession and 21.5 shots per game.
The squad is missing two important names. Captain Granit Xhaka and striker Breel Embolo were not called up, having reportedly admitted to using a false COVID-19 certificate several years ago, which removes 244 caps and 44 international goals from the group.
So far, the replacements have handled it well. Ardon Jashari has stepped into Xhaka’s role in midfield, and Amdouni has filled the gap left by Embolo up front.
Dan Ndoye is expected to keep his place on the wing, and Johan Manzambi has started both games after recovering from a knee injury. With a busy schedule, Yakin may still rotate a few positions.
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Slovenia Analysis 
Slovenia began with a goalless draw against Scotland. They then beat North Macedonia 2-0 in Ljubljana on Tuesday, with goals from Sandi Lovric shortly after half-time and Aljosa Matko late on.
That was Matko’s first international goal. It also kept head coach Bostjan Cesar unbeaten in competitive matches, although his overall record stands at two wins, two draws and two defeats.
Cesar took over after disappointing results in both the previous Nations League and World Cup qualifying. He has brought more solidity, but the attack remains a concern heading into this trip.
Benjamin Sesko has been ruled out of this camp by a persistent shin problem. The Football Faithful also lists Benjamin Verbic and Andraz Sporar as unavailable, which leaves Swansea City forward Zan Vipotnik to lead the line.
The statistics show how limited Slovenia’s attack has been. They average 48% possession and only 10.5 shots per game in this campaign, less than half of Switzerland’s output.
Their best asset is at the back. Captain Jan Oblak will win his 87th cap in goal, and he gives Slovenia a real chance of keeping the score respectable even under heavy pressure.
Probable lineup Switzerland: Kobel; Britschgi, Elvedi, Akanji, Rodriguez; Freuler, Jashari; Ndoye, Manzambi, Aebischer; Amdouni
Probable lineup Slovenia: Oblak; Karnicnik, Bijol, Brekalo, Janza; Cerin, Elsnik; Begic, Lovric, Sturm; Vipotnik
Free Football Prediction: Switzerland vs Slovenia
Our prediction: Both teams to score: No (1.53)
Switzerland’s win is the most likely outcome, but at 1.33 the price is too short. A more useful angle comes from Slovenia’s attacking problems: without Sesko, Verbic and Sporar, they average just 10.5 shots per game.
Switzerland have kept two clean sheets in two Nations League games, and Oblak’s presence at the other end makes a Slovenian collapse less likely than a controlled Swiss win. Both scenarios point to one team failing to score.
We back both teams to score: No at 1.53, the price quoted by the Football Faithful with Betfred. It covers a Swiss win to nil as well as a low-scoring stalemate, which fits the profile of this match.
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