- 1 Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces: 16-27 against 29-13, and only one side still has something to play for
- 2 Phoenix have found a bit of fight, but still not much margin
- 3 Las Vegas arrive with a seed to protect and a schedule under control
- 4 WNBA Prediction Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information moves on
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces: 16-27 against 29-13, and only one side still has something to play for 
The Aces stood at 29 wins and 13 losses as of the night of 20 September, sitting third in the overall standings. Phoenix, by contrast, had already been knocked out, down in 12th in a 15-team league.
The two teams meet on Thursday at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix on the final day of the regular season. Tip-off is set for 04:00 Paris time, in the early hours of Thursday into Friday, live on USA Network.
Las Vegas is still not locked in. The Aces can grab second place by winning their final two games if the Valkyries lose theirs, and they keep third by winning once if Indiana slips up.
So there is a seeding battle hanging over this one, with the first round of the playoffs set for 27 September. Becky Hammon has no reason to park her starters until the job is done.
Phoenix comes in with nothing to calculate, only a fresh win in the back pocket. The Mercury beat Dallas 87-86 on Monday night after trailing by 11 in the final quarter.
Phoenix have found a bit of fight, but still not much margin 
Monday’s comeback came down to one play. Alyssa Thomas picked out Kahleah Copper behind the Dallas defence, and the lay-up dropped with 2.4 seconds left for an 87-86 win.
Two days earlier, the same matchup had gone the other way, with Dallas winning 87-82 in Arlington. Phoenix split the pair with a team that has already booked its place.
Before that, the Mercury had edged Portland 94-91, powered by rookie Shay Ciezki and her 22 points in 21 minutes. Those two tight wins tell you this side can scrap at the end of games.
They don’t hide the bigger picture, though. 16 wins, 27 losses, out before play resumed on 17 September, and a season spent miles from the playoff race.
Phoenix are also still shorthanded. Kelsey Plum, who arrived from Los Angeles on 2 August, has been out since 22 August with a calf injury, and there is still no return date.
Kahleah Copper remains the most dependable weapon in the group, a world champion with Team USA in Berlin, where she scored 15 in the final. Even that usually isn’t enough to make up the gap to the top tier. Can Phoenix rise from the ashes?
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Las Vegas arrive with a seed to protect and a schedule under control 
The Aces handled the post-World Cup return without a wobble, first in Seattle on 17 September, then at home against the same opponent on 20 September. Two wins that took them to 29-13.
Becky Hammon brushed aside any talk of a crowded schedule before that run, refusing to use the return of the internationals as an excuse. The results backed her up.
A’ja Wilson is still the anchor of the offence, and until recently she held the WNBA regular-season record for points in a season. Her presence forces every defence to bend.
The standings picture means Las Vegas have to treat this like a meaningful game. A win on Thursday keeps third place if Indiana drops one, and leaves second still within reach.
Their opponents have nothing left to protect, which only widens the motivation gap. The Aces also know this trip to Phoenix well; they play it several times every season.
The only real concern is minutes management before the first round of the playoffs. Even so, Hammon has made it clear since the restart that she prefers to keep the team in rhythm rather than wrap it in cotton wool.
WNBA Prediction Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces
Our prediction: Las Vegas Aces to win with a -5.5 handicap in Phoenix
There are 13 wins between these teams in the standings, and that gap has been built over 42 games, not a hot streak.
The motivation split matters too. Las Vegas are playing for seeding on 27 September, while Phoenix are simply finishing out a season with no sequel.
The Mercury have squeezed out two narrow wins since the restart, but those came against Portland and Dallas, not the third-placed side. The Aces should win and cover the spread.
in your pocket.
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Information moves on
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