- 1 Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: seven points each, but two teams heading in different directions
- 2 Osasuna are in the worst spell of their season so far
- 3 Rayo are leaning on a red-hot Sergio Camello
- 4 La Liga prediction Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: seven points each, but two teams heading in different directions 
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano are locked on exactly the same total after six La Liga games: seven points apiece. Each side has two wins, one draw and three defeats.
But that neat little symmetry hides two very different runs. Osasuna sit 13th and have lost three straight, while 11th-place Rayo have just picked up a win.
The Navarre side had actually started brightly. A 0-0 draw with Levante, then back-to-back wins over Celta Vigo (2-1) and Getafe (1-0).
Since then, it has all fallen apart: 2-5 at Alaves, 0-2 at home to Espanyol, then 0-4 at Atletico Madrid. Eleven goals conceded in three matches.
Rayo, by contrast, have gone up and down all season, but their attacking numbers are clearly better. Ten goals scored, against just five for Saturday’s hosts.
The Madrid side arrive in decent shape after a 2-1 win over 10-man Espanyol. Earlier in September, they had already beaten Racing Santander 3-2.
The overall head-to-head record is razor-thin. Rayo lead 18 wins to 17, and only 12 of the 47 meetings have finished level.
Kick-off is on Saturday 19 September at 14:00 Paris time at Estadio El Sadar. This will be Osasuna’s fourth home game of the season.
The last seven meetings add another twist. Each club has won three, with just one draw.
El Sadar also began the campaign like a fortress. Osasuna did not concede in their first two home games before shipping two against Espanyol.
Osasuna are in the worst spell of their season so far 
Three defeats in a row, 11 goals conceded along the way: the Navarre defence has fallen apart. The 4-0 loss at the Metropolitano underlined the slide.
The problems are no longer limited to the back line. Osasuna have failed to score in their last two league outings.
The broader attacking numbers show just how far short they are falling. Five goals in six games, which is only half of Rayo’s tally.
Luis Miguel Ramis is without Jorge Herrando and Aimar Oroz, both injured. Moi Gomez and Valentin Rosier remain major doubts.
There should be changes to the XI from the Madrid trip. Ruben Garcia, Jon Moncayola and Ante Budimir are expected to come back into the starting line-up.
Budimir is still the main man for Osasuna, with four goals this season. He is carrying most of the threat on his own.
And the shift at home has been stark. El Sadar, once known as a hostile place to go, saw Espanyol score twice there in Osasuna’s last home match.
The fixture list has not helped either. Alaves and Atletico Madrid are among the form sides in Spanish football right now.
Last season, though, this matchup went Osasuna’s way. They beat Rayo home and away, including a 2-0 win in front of their own fans.
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Rayo are leaning on a red-hot Sergio Camello 
Six goals in six appearances: Sergio Camello is producing like a top-end striker. On his own, he has scored more than the whole Osasuna attack this season.
This Madrid side are staying true to their reputation as an entertaining outfit. Ten goals scored, 15 conceded, and not much sign of anyone slamming the brakes on since August.
Their last outing brought a valuable three points. The 2-1 win over Espanyol, earned against 10 men, snapped an uneven run.
There is good news for this trip too. Jorge de Frutos is back in the squad after serving his suspension.
The treatment room is still busy in Vallecas, though. Luiz Felipe, Randy Nteka, Augusto Batalla, Isi Palazon and Jozhua Vertrouwd are all out.
Beñat San Jose wants more than survival from this group. The club finished eighth last season and still has European football in its sights.
The trip to Madrid exposed the limits of this side. Rayo lost 4-1 away to Real.
They answered in the very next round. The 2-1 victory over Espanyol pulled them level with Osasuna in the table.
Rayo remain a side that likes to take risks. Fifteen goals conceded in six games tells you the defence can be opened up.
That same approach is giving them twice the attacking return of their opponents on Saturday. Ten goals to five, and the gap is plain to see.
Probable Osasuna line-up: Fernandez; Arguibide, Yeboah, Boyomo, Bretones; Ruben Garcia, Torro, Moncayola, Moro; Budimir, Raul Garcia
Probable Rayo Vallecano line-up: Audero; Ratiu, Lejeune, Sadick, Pedrosa; Lopez, Ciss; De Frutos, Diaz, A. Garcia; Camello
La Liga prediction Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Our prediction: Rayo Vallecano to win
Osasuna have shipped 11 goals in their last three league games and have not scored for two matches. No La Liga side comes into this round with a worse-looking double trend.
At the other end, Camello has six goals in six appearances and De Frutos returns from suspension to add more punch to the Madrid attack. Rayo also come in off a win, unlike their hosts.
The generous price on an away win says more about El Sadar than it does about the teams’ actual form. We are backing Rayo Vallecano to take it.
The main concern with that call is the recent history, because Osasuna completed the double over Rayo last season. But the current form points very firmly the other way.
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