- 1 Real Sociedad vs Atletico de Madrid: seven points apiece, but not from the same number of games
- 2 Real Sociedad: a back line leaking too much to keep up
- 3 Atletico de Madrid: seven points from four games and already five behind
- 4 La Liga prediction Real Sociedad vs Atletico de Madrid
- 5 Before anything else, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Real Sociedad vs Atletico de Madrid: seven points apiece, but not from the same number of games 
Real Sociedad and Atletico de Madrid head into matchday five locked on seven points each. The catch is the schedule: the Basques have played five matches, while the Madrid side have had only four.
That difference changes the picture completely. On a level playing field, Atletico would be well clear of Sunday’s hosts.
Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September at 21:00, at Anoeta. It brings the round of La Liga fixtures to a close.
The numbers, though, point to two very different starts. Real Sociedad have scored six and conceded eight, while Atletico have scored seven and let in six.
Neither defence has exactly looked watertight so far. Fourteen goals conceded between them in nine combined outings says plenty about the level of jitteriness in both camps.
The goal difference tells the story: minus two for Txuri-urdin, plus one for Los Colchoneros. Only one of these clubs can boast a positive attacking return after a month of action.
Atletico arrive in San Sebastian after losing in Bilbao and then falling at Anfield in the Champions League, 1-2. Two straight trips to the Basque Country is hardly ideal for a side already behind the pace.
Five points separate Diego Simeone’s men from the leaders after just four rounds. That turns this trip into a game Atletico can scarcely afford to flub.
For the home side, the issue is different. Seven points from 15 does not put anyone in the top half of the table. Beating a direct rival at home would shift the mood around a season that still feels undecided.
Real Sociedad: a back line leaking too much to keep up 
Two wins, one draw, two defeats: Real Sociedad have picked up seven points from a possible 15. That return leaves Txuri-urdin in the middle of the pack.
The real issue is staring everyone in the face in the goals against column. Eight in five league games works out at more than 1.5 per match.
Their last trip to Elche summed up the season so far. Leading 2-0, they were hauled back before nicking a 3-2 win while down to 10 men.
That kind of game says two things at once about this group. They can dig in when reduced to 10, but they also managed to throw away a two-goal lead with a man advantage.
The win came at a cost. Jon Martin was sent off in that match and will sit out Sunday night.
The injury list adds more pain, with Pablo Marin and Alvaro Odriozola ruled out. Three missing from a defence already under pressure, and the room for manoeuvre is shrinking fast.
Aitor Zubeldia should anchor the centre, with Sarr or Pacheco expected to partner him. Alex Remiro is set to return in goal after missing the previous outing.
There are questions in midfield too, where Carlos Soler, Yangel Herrera and Turrientes are competing for two spots. Out wide, Guedes, Kubo, Barrenetxea and Ochieng are all in the mix.
The main hope is home soil at Anoeta, where Atletico have never quite looked comfortable. Still, six goals in five league games is a poor enough return for a side chasing a tight game.
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Atletico de Madrid: seven points from four games and already five behind 
Atletico have taken seven points from 12, with two wins, one draw and one defeat. On paper, that looks respectable. In the context of La Liga’s pace-setters, it is not nearly enough.
Five points off the lead after four games is not a gap Simeone usually lets open up. By mid-September, the margin for error is already tiny.
The loss in Bilbao started this wobble. It also sends the team back to the Basque Country for a second straight away trip, with the pressure of needing a result hanging over them.
Back-to-back visits to this part of Spain are no picnic for a Madrid club. Both Basque grounds rank among the most hostile in the league, and Atletico arrive there without much confidence in reserve.
Going forward, they have scored seven in four. At the other end, they have conceded six over the same stretch. The imbalance is slight, but it is real for a club built on being hard to break down.
Shipping 1.5 goals a game is not normal territory for this team. It is also the clearest explanation for why seven points has not been enough to keep up.
Alexander Sorloth is the only confirmed absentee for Atletico. Simeone therefore has almost his full squad available for this trip.
Cristian Romero is expected to make his first La Liga minutes of the season. Koke could also come back into midfield, in place of Hjulmand.
Pablo Barrios has just put together his best run since the restart and has become one of the fixed points in the middle of the park. His presence gives Simeone a reliable outlet in an area where Atletico have often lost control this season.
Probable Real Sociedad line-up: Not confirmed at the time of publication. Remiro should return in goal, with Zubeldia in the centre alongside Sarr or Pacheco. Jon Martin is suspended, while Pablo Marin and Alvaro Odriozola are out.
Probable Atletico de Madrid line-up: Not confirmed at the time of publication. Romero and Koke are possible changes to the starting XI. Only Alexander Sorloth is unavailable.
La Liga prediction Real Sociedad vs Atletico de Madrid
Our prediction: both teams to score
Both defences have been leaking at a similar rate since the restart, with Real conceding eight in five and Atletico six in four. Neither side has shown it can shut a game down for the full 90.
The Basque injury list strengthens that view: with Jon Martin suspended and Odriozola out, Real are likely to field a patched-up back line against an Atletico attack that has already hit seven. At the other end, Atletico have conceded at least once in three of their four games.
The Elche comeback adds one final clue. A side that let a 2-0 lead slip to 2-2 is not exactly about to produce a clean sheet against Los Colchoneros.
Both teams should find the net on Sunday night at Anoeta. This one feels more about the back lines than the winner.
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