- 1 Lille vs Troyes: two goals conceded to seven, and the defensive gap is glaring
- 2 Lille solid in Ligue 1, shakier in Europe
- 3 Troyes come in after a home drubbing
- 4 Ligue 1 prediction Lille vs Troyes
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Lille vs Troyes: two goals conceded to seven, and the defensive gap is glaring 
Lille have conceded just two goals in three Ligue 1 matches. Troyes have let in seven over the same spell.
That is the biggest gap in this fourth round of fixtures. It puts the Dogues in the clearest possible favourite’s spot from the off.
The match is on Sunday 13 September at 15:00 at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve-d’Ascq. It will be shown on Ligue 1+.
In the table, Lille are fourth with seven points and unbeaten since the league restarted. Troyes sit ninth with four.
Troyes come into this off the heaviest setback of last weekend, a 2-6 home battering by Strasbourg. That result has torn holes in their goal difference.
Lille, meanwhile, are coming off an European night, a 2-3 defeat to Real Betis last Tuesday in the Champions League. Five days separate the two games, so there is time to get the legs back under them.
The bookmakers have Lille at a very short price, around 1.38. The goals line is set at 2.5, which points more towards a one-sided contest than an open shootout.
Lille still have not won in front of their own fans in the league, with their only home game so far ending 2-2 against Paris Saint-Germain. So there is a double incentive on Sunday.
Troyes have produced three very different results in three league matches: a 0-0, an away win and a home hiding. They are hard to read.
Lille solid in Ligue 1, shakier in Europe 
LOSC began their campaign with a 2-0 win at Angers. Clean, tidy, no goals conceded.
The visit of Paris Saint-Germain in round two finished 2-2. It is the only league game this season in which Lille’s defence has cracked.
The trip to Toulouse brought another win, this time 1-0. Two away wins from three outings explains why they are up in fourth.
Five scored and two conceded: on paper, Lille sit among the league’s best defences. Only Monaco, Paris FC and Lyon have matched or bettered that record.
The European tie with Real Betis showed a different side, though, with three goals conceded at home. The level of opposition and the pressure around it were obviously not the same.
Coming back to league duty after a poor European night is a decent enough motive. The Stade Pierre-Mauroy is also still waiting for its first league win of the season.
Two away wins from two attempts is the base of Lille’s start. Angers and Toulouse did not score a single goal against the Dogues.
Five goals in three league matches is exactly the total of Monaco, the current leaders. The balance between the two ends of the pitch is what makes Lille dangerous right now.
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Troyes come in after a home drubbing 
Troyes had actually made a decent start to the season with a 0-0 against Paris FC and a 2-1 win at Lorient. Four points from two games, no complaints there.
Then round three flipped the picture: 2-6 at home to Strasbourg. Six goals shipped in a single match, a season worst for the club.
That result has done plenty of damage to the numbers: seven goals conceded in three matches, the second-worst total in Ligue 1 behind Auxerre. Their goal difference has slipped to minus three.
Going forward, Troyes have kept pace with four goals scored, the same as Angers and one fewer than Lille. The issue is obvious enough.
A trip north could hardly be worse timing, especially against a side still unbeaten in the league. They need to get their defensive shape back before thinking about scoring.
There is one silver lining: Troyes have picked up four points from their first three games, which is respectable for a lower-half side. Nothing is lost yet this season.
Most of the seven goals conceded came in one match, so the damage is not quite as ugly as it looks. Across the opening two rounds, they had let in just one.
Four goals scored in three league games is still a fair return for a side expected to be down there. The problem is at the back, not up front.
Likely Lille line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
Likely Troyes line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
Ligue 1 prediction Lille vs Troyes
Our prediction: Lille win with a -1 handicap
The straight Lille win is priced at around 1.38, which is too short to be worth much interest. The handicap gives the bet some value.
Troyes conceded six in their last outing and seven across three league games, which does not exactly scream low-scoring grind. Lille, by contrast, have let in just two in their three league matches.
LOSC also have something to prove after Tuesday’s European defeat, and the home crowd wants a first league win at Pierre-Mauroy. Lille to win by at least two goals looks the call.
Since the end of August, LOSC have played four official games, including the Champions League, and taken seven points from nine in the league. The schedule has been busy, but they are handling it.
Troyes have not won since beating Lorient in round two. This trip to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy does not look like the place for a quick turnaround.
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