- 1 Ivory Coast vs Gambia: five meetings, five Ivorian wins, and both sides on six points
- 2 Ivory Coast: no goals conceded in qualifying, four new faces after the Cameroon defeat
- 3 Gambia: 10 goals in five matches, with Minteh and Barrow back
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Ivory Coast vs Gambia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Ivory Coast vs Gambia: five meetings, five Ivorian wins, and both sides on six points 
Ivory Coast have beaten Gambia in all five of their meetings, and Gambia haven’t scored in any of them. The last four, between 2013 and March 2025, finished 9-0 on aggregate, the most recent a 1-0 World Cup qualifying win in Ivory Coast on 24 March 2025.
They meet again on Thursday 12 November at the Stade de la Paix in Bouaké, kick-off 19:00 UK time, on matchday three of Group C in qualifying for AFCON 2027. Both have won their opening two games, and they play each other again in Banjul on Tuesday 17 November.
Ivory Coast lead the group on goals with six points and a 4-0 record. Gambia also have six points, from a 6-3 goal tally, after beating Somalia 2-1 and then winning 4-2 in Accra against a Ghana side that had been 2-0 up.
Hervé Renard’s side haven’t conceded in qualifying. The only defeat of his second spell came in a friendly, 1-0 at home to Cameroon on 3 October, and Renard has said that performance weighed on his selection for this window.
We have Ivory Coast as favourites. What has changed is Gambia’s scoring: they arrive with more goals in this campaign than any other side in the group, and that shapes how we read this one.
Ivory Coast: no goals conceded in qualifying, four new faces after the Cameroon defeat 
Ivory Coast opened with a 2-0 win over Ghana in Bouaké on 24 September, Malick Yalcouyé scoring in the first half and Franck Kessié converting a penalty after 56 minutes. Five days later they needed late goals to beat Somalia 2-0 in Abidjan, Yann Gboho scoring in the 88th minute on his debut and Bazoumana Touré in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
Their average expected goals across the two qualifiers was 1.93, against 1.14 for Gambia. The chances have come more easily than the goals, and the friendly against Cameroon ended without an Ivorian goal.
Renard has called up four players for the first time: Udinese centre-back Oumar Solet, Ipswich full-back Abdoul Ouattara, Abdoulaye Kanté of Al-Ettifaq and Yaya Kader Fofana of Reims. Amad Diallo, Hassane Kamara and Martial Godo return to the squad.
Odilon Kossounou and Guéla Doué are injured, and Wilfried Singo, Simon Adingra, Seko Fofana, Evann Guessand and Sébastien Haller weren’t selected. Evan Ndicka of Roma and Ousmane Diomandé of Nottingham Forest are the likely centre-backs in front of Yahia Fofana.
The attacking options are wide: Diallo of Manchester United, Nicolas Pépé, Elye Wahi, Yan Diomandé of Real Madrid and Touré of Newcastle. Pépé scored twice in the 2-0 win over Curaçao at the World Cup in June, before Norway knocked Ivory Coast out 2-1 in the round of 32.
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Gambia: 10 goals in five matches, with Minteh and Barrow back 
Gambia have scored 10 goals in their last five matches and haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of them. Each of their last four results has produced at least three goals: 3-1 defeats to Senegal on 31 March and Iran on 29 May, a 2-1 win over Somalia and a 4-2 win in Ghana.
The win in Accra on 29 September is the best result of Johnny McKinstry’s time in charge. Ghana led 2-0 by the 33rd minute and finished with 74% of the ball, but Gambia scored twice before half-time, through a Muhammed Badamosi penalty and Omar Colley, and twice more after the break. Ebrima Colley has three goals in the two qualifiers.
McKinstry, appointed in June 2024, now has Yankuba Minteh and Musa Barrow back after both missed September through injury. He says both are fit, Barrow more so, and Minteh has played only eight minutes of club football this season after a calf injury.
Jesper Ceesay and Suleiman Camara withdrew injured and were replaced by Saidou Khan and Salieu Drammeh. Alieu Fadera and Adama Sidibeh are out, and James Gomez isn’t in the squad. Minteh plays for Brighton, Barrow for Al Khaleej and Ebrima Colley for Konyaspor, so the front three in the probable lineup all arrive from top-flight club football.
Gambia haven’t won three games in a row in five years. The probable lineup has a back five built around Omar Colley, Sheriff Sinyan and Ibou Touray, with Ebou Adams and Abubakarr Barry of RB Salzburg in front of them.
Probable lineup Ivory Coast: Y. Fofana; Abdoul Ouattara, Ndicka, O. Diomandé, Kassoum Ouattara; Kessié, Sangaré, Oulaï; Diallo, Wahi, Y. Diomandé
Probable lineup Gambia: Gaye; O. Colley, J. Colley, Sinyan, Bojang, Touray; Adams, Barry; Minteh, E. Colley, Barrow; Badamosi
Free Football Prediction: Ivory Coast vs Gambia
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.70)
We’re backing over 2.5 goals at 1.70. Gambia’s last four matches have all gone over that line, and in two qualifiers they’ve scored six and conceded three. A home win at 1.20 is too short to be worth taking on its own.
The counter-argument is Ivory Coast’s defence: no goals conceded in qualifying and none conceded to Gambia in five meetings. Against that, Gambia now have Ebrima Colley, Minteh and Barrow in the same squad, and their back line conceded twice in the first 33 minutes in Accra.
A 2-1 or 3-1 home win is the outcome we see as most likely. Both land the pick, and so would a draw with goals at either end.
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