- 1 Senegal vs Sudan: Vieira’s first home game, without Mané or Gana Gueye
- 2 Senegal: three games under Vieira, three goals, and Jackson scoring at Villa
- 3 Sudan: a late penalty, a 4-1 defeat and eight meetings without beating Senegal
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Senegal vs Sudan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Senegal vs Sudan: Vieira’s first home game, without Mané or Gana Gueye 
Sadio Mané isn’t in the Senegal squad for Thursday’s qualifier. The Al-Nassr forward stayed in Riyadh for the birth of a child, and Idrissa Gana Gueye has been left out without an explanation, so Patrick Vieira’s first home match as Senegal coach comes without either of them.
Senegal host Sudan on Thursday 12 November at the Stade Léopold Sédar Senghor in Dakar, kick-off 19:00 UK time, on matchday three of Group J in qualifying for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations. The usual home ground at Diamniadio is being used for the Dakar 2026 Youth Olympics.
The group is tighter than most expected. Mozambique lead on four points with a goal difference of plus three, Senegal are level on points having scored only twice, Sudan have three points and Ethiopia none. The top two qualify for the finals in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
Vieira was appointed in August after Pape Thiaw, who won AFCON 2025, was dismissed. Senegal’s World Cup ended with a 3-2 extra-time defeat to Belgium in the round of 32 after they had led 2-0. Since then Vieira has a 1-1 draw in Maputo, a 1-0 win in Ethiopia and a 1-0 friendly win over Comoros.
Sudan have lost seven of their last nine matches and haven’t beaten Senegal in eight meetings. The teams play each other again on Monday 16 November, so Thursday’s result will also shape how both coaches approach the second game.
Senegal: three games under Vieira, three goals, and Jackson scoring at Villa 
Senegal haven’t been fluent under Vieira. They had 21 shots, eight on target, across the two September qualifiers and more than 60% of possession in both. The return was two goals: Nicolas Jackson’s 32nd-minute opener in Mozambique, cancelled out by Geny Catamo just before half-time, and Ibrahim Mbaye’s 11th-minute winner in Bahir Dar.
Iliman Ndiaye then scored after five minutes in the 1-0 win over Comoros on 4 October. That run of narrow results followed a World Cup in which Senegal beat Iraq 5-0 but lost 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway in the group stage.
Jackson arrives in form at Aston Villa, with six goals and an assist in nine Premier League starts and four goals in his last five games. Mbaye, 17, is also at Villa, Boulaye Dia has four goals in five starts for Rennes, and Pape Gueye has three in 11 La Liga games for Villarreal.
The absences go beyond Mané and Gana Gueye. Assane Diao, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye, Habib Diarra and Ismaïla Sarr are listed as injured, Abdallah Sima is unavailable, and Mamadou Sarr of Real Sociedad has a calf problem, with Massiré Sylla called up as cover. Krépin Diatta is back in the squad but is a doubt.
Four players have been called up for the first time: Pathé Mboup of Brest, Pape Demba Diop of Strasbourg, Clayton Diandy and Paul Mendy of Cagliari. Kalidou Koulibaly, Yehvann Diouf, El Hadji Malick Diouf and Lamine Camara form the experienced core of the probable starting side.
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Sudan: a late penalty, a 4-1 defeat and eight meetings without beating Senegal 
Sudan started Group J with a 1-0 win over Ethiopia on 25 September, Mohamed Eisa scoring from the penalty spot in the 86th minute. Four days later they lost 4-1 in Mozambique, with Chamito Alfandega scoring twice and a late Yasin Hamed penalty the only reply.
That leaves them third on three points with a goal difference of minus two. They have one win in their last four matches and seven defeats in their last nine, a run that includes a 2-0 defeat to Burkina Faso at AFCON 2025.
Against Senegal the record is eight games without a win, six defeats and two draws. Senegal won 2-0 in a World Cup qualifier on 5 September 2025 and 3-1 in the AFCON round of 16 on 3 January, and both of Sudan’s draws in that run were 0-0 in 2025.
James Kwesi Appiah, the Ghanaian coach, has picked a squad drawn mostly from the Sudanese league, with several players from Al Hilal and Al Merrikh. Abuaagla Abdalla is set for his 79th cap and Mohamed Abdelrahman, 33, has 23 goals in 64 internationals.
Five uncapped players are included, among them Amjed Esam and Wael Jalal. The probable lineup has three central midfielders, Ammar Taifour, Abdalla and Walieldin Khedr, behind Eisa and Abdelrahman.
Probable lineup Senegal: Y. Diouf; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhaté, E.H.M. Diouf; P. Gueye, L. Camara, P.M. Sarr; Ndiaye, Jackson, I. Mbaye
Probable lineup Sudan: Monged El Neel; Barglan, Mohamed Saeed Ahmed, Karshoum, Khames; Taifour, Abdalla, Khedr; Aamir Yunis Abdallah, Eisa, Abdelrahman
Free Football Prediction: Senegal vs Sudan
Our prediction: Senegal to win and over 2.5 goals (odds 1.51)
We’re taking Senegal to win with over 2.5 goals at 1.51. A straight home win at around 1.10 offers no value, and five of Senegal’s last seven competitive matches have produced three goals or more.
The concern is the finishing under Vieira, three goals in three matches despite the shot counts in September. Sudan, though, conceded four in Mozambique in their last qualifier, and Senegal scored three against them in January and two in September 2025.
A home crowd in Dakar, Jackson’s club form and a Sudan side that has lost seven of nine all point to a comfortable margin. We expect 3-0, and a 2-1 home win would also land this pick.
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