- 1 Guatemala vs Canada: a shootout win in 2025 and a quarter-final at El Trébol
- 2 Guatemala: three Nations League clean sheets, two players banned
- 3 Canada: 27th in the world, but missing Shaffelburg, Larin and Eustáquio
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Guatemala vs Canada
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Guatemala vs Canada: a shootout win in 2025 and a quarter-final at El Trébol 
Guatemala knocked Canada out of the 2025 Gold Cup on penalties. The quarter-final finished 1-1 after extra time on 29 June 2025, Jacob Shaffelburg was sent off in first-half stoppage time, and Guatemala won the shootout 6-5.
The sides meet again in the first leg of a CONCACAF Nations League quarter-final on Friday 13 November at the Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera in Guatemala City, the ground known as El Trébol. Kick-off is 20:00 local time, which is 02:00 UK time in the early hours of Saturday 14 November. The return leg is at BMO Field in Toronto on Monday 16 November.
The aggregate winner goes to the Nations League Finals in Los Angeles in March 2027 and qualifies for the 2027 Gold Cup. The loser drops into the Gold Cup preliminary round.
The FIFA ranking puts Canada 27th and Guatemala 95th. Before January, Canada’s record in this fixture stood at 10 wins, two draws and three defeats, with the Gold Cup game counted as a defeat. They won a friendly 1-0 in Los Angeles on 17 January through Russell-Rowe, but that match was downgraded to a B international and carried no caps.
Guatemala will also be playing in front of a reduced crowd. CONCACAF has closed 25% of the stadium as a sanction for their qualifier against Suriname, where there were discriminatory chants, objects thrown onto the pitch and a confrontation after the final whistle. We expect a cagey first leg with few goals.
Guatemala: three Nations League clean sheets, two players banned 
Guatemala won Group B with seven points and reached their first Nations League quarter-final. They finished the group with three clean sheets in a row: 6-0 against El Salvador on 29 September, 0-0 away to Suriname and then 1-0 against Suriname on 6 October with a stoppage-time winner.
That campaign began with a 3-2 defeat in Jamaica on 26 September. Luis Fernando Tena’s side haven’t conceded since, and they’re unbeaten in their last six home matches in League A, letting in two goals over that spell.
The second Suriname game cost them two players. Jonathan Franco and Carlos Estrada were each banned for three matches for their part in the post-match confrontation and miss both legs of this tie. Darwin Lom, who also picked up a ban from that game, has served it and is available.
Tena named 28 players on 30 October. Nicholas Hagen of Columbus Crew is the goalkeeper, Olger Escobar of CF Montréal and Rubio Rubín of El Paso Locomotive carry most of the attacking threat, and Aurora’s Héctor Morales was a surprise call-up after scoring 11 goals in nine games. Arquímides Ordóñez wasn’t selected after turning down an earlier call.
Óscar Santis is a doubt. A report on 30 October said he had fully recovered, but the latest team news lists a hamstring strain, and we’d expect Guatemala to start without him. Their nine group-stage goals equalled their joint-best total in a League A group.
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Canada: 27th in the world, but missing Shaffelburg, Larin and Eustáquio 
Canada had their best men’s World Cup this summer: two wins, a draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and six conceded. The 6-0 win over Qatar in Vancouver was the country’s first men’s World Cup win, and a 1-0 win over South Africa in the round of 32 took them through before Morocco won 3-0 in Houston on 4 July.
The autumn has been mixed. Canada beat Chile 1-0 in Toronto on 26 September and Peru 2-0 in Montréal on 3 October, with Shaffelburg scoring both goals, then lost 1-0 to the United States in St. Paul three days later.
Shaffelburg won’t play in Guatemala. He and Jonathan Osorio withdrew injured on 9 November, and Brym, Bassong and Corbeanu were called up. They join an absence list that already included Eustáquio, Larin, Cornelius, Alfie Jones and Alistair Johnston.
Alphonso Davies, the captain, is expected to play after missing the September and October friendlies; a hamstring injury had limited his minutes at the World Cup. Goalkeeper Crépeau is back after missing the last window for personal reasons and competes with St. Clair for the place he held at the World Cup.
Canada have never lost a Nations League knockout match away from home, winning 2-1 in Jamaica in 2023 and 1-0 in Suriname in 2024. Their only previous Nations League game in Central America was a 2-1 defeat in Honduras in 2022, and Jesse Marsch has said publicly that getting a result in Guatemala City will be hard.
Probable lineup Guatemala: Hagen; Herrera, Yanes, Samayoa, Morales; López, Castellanos, Rosales, Escobar, Rubín; Lom
Probable lineup Canada: Crépeau; Laryea, De Fougerolles, Ivanisevic, Davies; Buchanan, Saliba, Choinière, Millar; J. David, Oluwaseyi
Free Football Prediction: Guatemala vs Canada
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals
We’re backing under 2.5 goals. Guatemala haven’t conceded in their last three Nations League games and have let in two in their last six home League A matches, while Canada travel without Shaffelburg, who scored both goals against Peru, as well as Larin and Osorio.
Canada have the stronger squad and a winning record in this fixture, and an away goal wouldn’t surprise us. Marsch also knows the tie is decided in Toronto on Monday, and the last competitive meeting between these sides finished 1-1 after 120 minutes.
The main risk is Guatemala opening up at home the way they did in the 6-0 win over El Salvador. With 25% of El Trébol closed, Franco and Estrada suspended and Santis doubtful, we expect one or two goals at most, with 1-0 or 1-1 the likeliest scores.
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