Northern Ireland vs Ukraine – Free Football Prediction – Nov 14

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: four clean sheets, first place, and a 3-0 win in Trnava to defend

Northern Ireland had 27% of the ball in Trnava on 2 October and won 3-0. Ciaron Brown scored after nine minutes, Isaac Price added a second on 22, and Brown’s second on 61 went through the legs of Ukraine goalkeeper Dmytro Riznyk. Ukraine finished with 73% possession and 11 shots, and only two of them were on target.

That result is the main reason Michael O’Neill’s side top League B Group 2 with eight points from four games. They’ve won two and drawn two, and they’re the only team in the whole Nations League yet to concede a goal this season.

The return meeting is at Windsor Park on Saturday 14 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time, and the stadium is sold out with a waiting list. Northern Ireland go to Budapest to face Hungary on Tuesday, so two good results this week would take them into League A for the first time.

Ukraine are third on four points, four behind, after back-to-back defeats in October. Andrea Maldera’s side lost 2-1 at home to Hungary three days after the Trnava defeat, and a third straight loss would leave them fighting to stay clear of fourth place on the final night against Georgia.

The bookmakers have changed their minds since October. Ukraine were around 2.05 favourites for the first meeting. For this one, Northern Ireland are 2.30, the draw is between 2.90 and 3.00, and Ukraine are between 3.00 and 3.10.

Northern Ireland: 360 minutes without conceding, built on the Charles brothers

The clean sheets started in Tbilisi on 25 September, in a game played behind closed doors because of sanctions on the Georgian federation. Pierce Charles saved a Khvicha Kvaratskhelia penalty on 65 minutes, and his brother Shea won the match in the ninth minute of stoppage time, finishing a Trai Hume cross after a VAR check for offside.

Three days later Northern Ireland drew 0-0 with Hungary in Belfast, and on 5 October they drew 0-0 with Georgia at Windsor Park. That second draw should have been a win: Georgia goalkeeper Mamardashvili saved Price’s 84th-minute penalty.

So the defence has carried the side, and the attack has needed set-pieces and late moments. Brown, a centre-back, has two of their four goals. Pierce Charles, on loan at QPR from Manchester City, has kept seven clean sheets in nine competitive appearances.

O’Neill is short of bodies in that defence. Dan Ballard went off with a hamstring injury in Tbilisi and is out again, as are Eoin Toal, Jamie McDonnell and Ali McCann, and Conor Bradley remains a long-term absentee. Ceadach O’Neill of Arsenal has withdrawn injured from both November games.

The squad includes two new call-ups, Manchester United goalkeeper Dermot Mee and Portsmouth forward Eoin Kenny, who scored 22 goals in 94 games for Dundalk. Brown, Hume, Paddy McNair, Ruairi McConville and Brodie Spencer remain available at the back.

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Ukraine: two goals in four games, and no Zubkov, Ponomarenko or Yarmolenko

Ukraine started the group well enough. Danylo Sikan’s goal on 42 minutes won it 1-0 in Budapest on 25 September, and they followed it with a 0-0 in Georgia. Since then they’ve lost both of their nominal home games in Slovakia, scoring once.

The Hungary defeat on 5 October hurt more than the scoreline suggests. Milan Tóth put Hungary ahead early in the second half, Roman Yaremchuk equalised from a corner on 83 minutes, and Gábor Jurék scored the winner in Hungary’s very next attack.

Maldera, the Italian who replaced Serhiy Rebrov in May, has seen his attack thinned out this week. Oleksandr Zubkov withdrew injured and was replaced by Mykola Shaparenko and Vladyslav Vanat, and Matviy Ponomarenko then pulled out after getting hurt in the Shakhtar-Dynamo game, with Artem Dovbyk called up in his place.

Andriy Yarmolenko and Viktor Tsyhankov, both in the October squad, aren’t on the November list. Yarmolenko has 47 international goals, one short of Andriy Shevchenko’s national record of 48, and he won’t get the chance to equal it in Belfast.

The squad still has quality in Anatoliy Trubin, Illia Zabarnyi, Vitaliy Mykolenko and Heorhiy Sudakov. Turning possession into chances has been harder: in Trnava they had nearly three-quarters of the ball and hit the target twice. Yaremchuk’s header against Hungary is their only goal since the opening night in Budapest, and Dovbyk returns to a side that has scored once in its last three games.

Probable lineup Northern Ireland: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Ukraine: Not announced at time of publication

Free Football Prediction: Northern Ireland vs Ukraine

Our prediction: Northern Ireland to win (2.30)

I’d back Northern Ireland to win, at 2.30. The case starts with their defence, which hasn’t been beaten in 360 minutes, and with an opponent that has scored twice in four games and lost two of its most dangerous forwards to injury this week.

The fair objection is that Northern Ireland don’t score many either, with four goals in four games, and two goalless draws at Windsor Park. But Ukraine want the ball, as their 73% in Trnava showed, and that’s the kind of game Northern Ireland won 3-0 in October with barely a quarter of the possession.

With a sold-out crowd, a place in League A within reach and a goalkeeper in Pierce Charles who has saved a penalty and kept seven clean sheets in nine competitive games, I think Northern Ireland are value at that price.

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