- 1 Portugal vs Denmark: the first Portugal side without Ronaldo, and a perfect group record to protect
- 2 Portugal: four wins from four, but no Cancelo, no Nuno Mendes and no Conceição
- 3 Denmark: Højlund has scored three of their seven goals, and the away record has been thin for a long time
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Portugal vs Denmark
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Portugal vs Denmark: the first Portugal side without Ronaldo, and a perfect group record to protect 
Cristiano Ronaldo announced his international retirement on Thursday 5 November, aged 41, with 234 caps and 146 goals. His last game for Portugal was the World Cup round-of-16 defeat to Spain in July, and his last Nations League camp ended badly: he left it without permission on 1 October, the day Jorge Jesus confirmed that Gonçalo Ramos would start against Denmark. The federation suspended him for 30 days and fined him.
So Saturday’s game in Braga is the first Portugal match of the post-Ronaldo era, and it comes at a moment when the team has never looked less dependent on him. Jesus has won all four of his matches in charge, Portugal top League A Group 4 with 12 points and they’ve already booked a place in the two-legged quarter-finals in March 2027.
Kick-off at the Estádio Municipal de Braga is 19:45 UK time on Saturday 14 November. The ground holds a little over 30,000, and for Portugal the result changes very little. For Denmark it changes a great deal, because they sit second on six points with Norway and Wales three behind, and they still have to host Norway in Copenhagen on Tuesday.
The last two meetings produced 13 goals. Portugal won the Nations League quarter-final second leg 5-2 in Lisbon in March 2025, three days after Rasmus Højlund had given Denmark a 1-0 win in the first leg, and on 1 October Portugal won 4-2 at Parken.
Bookmakers have Portugal at 1.49 to win, with the draw at 4.78 and Denmark at 5.28. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.56, so the market expects something closer to those last two meetings than to a dead rubber.
Portugal: four wins from four, but no Cancelo, no Nuno Mendes and no Conceição 
The goals have been shared around under Jesus. Ramos and João Félix have three each in the group and João Cancelo has two, and that spread is why Ronaldo’s absence from the October games barely registered on the scoreline.
Félix opened the campaign with a deflected long shot off Ben Davies in a 1-0 win over Wales, a game in which Portugal had 19 shots to Wales’ four. He scored again in Oslo, where Ramos got the winner in a 2-1 victory, and Ramos repeated the trick in Porto on 4 October with a 79th-minute goal from Félix’s pass after Kristoffer Ajer had put Norway ahead.
The squad Jesus takes to Braga is short of its first-choice full-backs. Cancelo is suspended after his second booking of the group, picked up against Norway, and Nuno Mendes is injured. Francisco Conceição was sent off late in Porto and is serving a three-match UEFA ban that covers this game, the trip to Wales and the first leg of the quarter-final.
Jesus named 28 players and seven of them are new to the group. Alberto Costa and Gustavo Varela are first call-ups, while Rodrigo Mora and Quenda are still waiting for a senior cap. Gonçalo Inácio was left out by choice, and there are doubts over Nuno Tavares and Rafael Leão, who have muscle problems.
What hasn’t changed is the spine. Diogo Costa, Rúben Dias, Vitinha, João Neves, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva are all in the squad, and in Copenhagen it was Vitinha who made it 3-1 on 67 minutes before Félix added the fourth three minutes from time.
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Denmark: Højlund has scored three of their seven goals, and the away record has been thin for a long time 
Brian Riemer’s side have won two and lost two, scoring seven and conceding seven, and the pattern inside those numbers is clear enough. Both wins came against Wales, 2-0 at Parken and 1-0 in Cardiff, and both defeats came against the two stronger sides in the group.
Højlund is the one constant. He scored in Oslo, scored again in the 4-2 defeat at home to Portugal and won the game in Cardiff with a 75th-minute penalty after Danny Ward brought down Gustav Isaksen. Three of Denmark’s seven group goals are his, and he was also the man who beat Portugal 1-0 in Copenhagen in March 2025.
Mikkel Damsgaard has the other two that matter, a free-kick in Oslo and the equaliser at Parken on 23 minutes. The trouble in that home game against Portugal came straight afterwards: Cancelo had scored on 13 minutes, Ramos restored the lead on 25, and Denmark spent the rest of the night chasing.
Away from home, the record had been poor long before this campaign. Denmark had gone six away Nations League games without a win before the trip to Oslo, lost that one 3-2, and only ended the run with the penalty in Cardiff on 4 October.
Riemer has reshuffled for November. Andreas Christensen has been out injured since mid-September, Patrick Dorgu is missing with a hamstring problem and Kasper Høgh has been dropped, while Jesper Lindstrøm and William Osula are back alongside Isaksen, Andreas Skov Olsen and Højlund in the forward group.
Probable lineup Portugal: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Denmark: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Portugal vs Denmark
Our prediction: Portugal to win (1.49)
I’d back Portugal, and the reason is the gap in what each side does when it’s under pressure. Portugal have trailed once in this group, in Porto, drew level within two minutes through Cancelo and won it late through Ramos. Denmark conceded first in both of their defeats, and in each case they finished the night a goal or two short after the opponent scored again.
The absences on the Portuguese flanks are real, and a full-back pairing missing Cancelo and Nuno Mendes gives Isaksen and Skov Olsen more room than they had at Parken. I still think the midfield of Vitinha, João Neves and Bruno Fernandes will have the ball for long spells, and Portugal scored four times in Copenhagen against the same Danish centre-backs.
Denmark need the points more, but need doesn’t make up for a record of one away win in eight Nations League trips. Portugal at home, with Ramos and Félix both on three goals, is the side I’d trust at 1.49.
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