- 1 Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors: a rested top-five defence against a Raptors team on its third game in four nights
- 2 Philadelphia 76ers: a tied-fourth defence carrying an offence that ranks 23rd
- 3 Toronto Raptors: Barnes and Barrett carrying the scoring while Leonard sits
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 11 About visuals
Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors: a rested top-five defence against a Raptors team on its third game in four nights 
Joel Embiid went 0 for 9 from the field in Cleveland on Friday, and the 76ers made 10 of 40 threes in a 119-95 defeat that ended a five-game winning streak. It was only Philadelphia’s second loss of the season. They went into Sunday’s game in Chicago at 8-2 and top of the Atlantic Division.
Toronto visit Xfinity Mobile Arena on Thursday 12 November, with tip-off at 7:00pm ET. It’s the first of four meetings between the teams this season. The Raptors are 5-4 and have alternated wins and losses over their last six games, the most recent a 121-107 NBA Cup win in Milwaukee on 6 November.
The schedule matters here. Toronto host Memphis on Monday and Boston on Wednesday, so Thursday is the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. Philadelphia play Boston at home on Tuesday and then have Wednesday off.
Kawhi Leonard won’t play. Toronto completed the trade for him with the Clippers on 14 September, he’s appeared in two games, and his knee problem has him listed out until around 23 November. Scottie Barnes (groin) and Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) were both game-time decisions earlier this week, so the Raptors’ rotation needs checking right up to tip-off.
Last season’s series finished 2-2, with Toronto winning 116-115 in overtime on 11 January and Philadelphia replying 115-102 in the same building the following night. This season the clearest gap is on defence. The 76ers rank tied fourth in defensive rating at 106.6 and hold opponents to 32.1% from three, while Toronto shoot 31.5% from deep, 27th in the NBA.
Philadelphia 76ers: a tied-fourth defence carrying an offence that ranks 23rd 
We’d start with the defence, because it has done most of the work. Philadelphia allow 106.6 points per game, and opponents shoot 32.1% from three against them, fifth best in the league. The offence sits 23rd at 109.4 points a game, even with Tyrese Maxey averaging 26.9.
Jaylen Brown has settled in fast since arriving from Boston on 6 July in the trade that sent Paul George the other way. He’s averaging 21.6 points and 6.7 rebounds. In Detroit on 4 November he scored a season-high 30 in a 112-106 win and sealed it with a block on Cade Cunningham.
LeBron James, who signed on 26 July, has been a connector more than a scorer: 14.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists a game. He went 3 of 12 in Cleveland. VJ Edgecombe adds 13.2 points and scored 21 against Chicago on 2 November, a 126-107 win in which Philadelphia assisted on 36 of 48 field goals.
Rebounding is where they’re exposed. The 76ers average 42.3 boards, 22nd in the league, and opponents collect 48.3 a game against them, 29th. Cleveland out-rebounded them by 14 on Friday. Embiid’s 9.6 rebounds a night matter in that context, and he was a game-time decision with a foot issue going into Sunday.
Ball security covers some of that. Philadelphia commit 13.3 turnovers per game, third fewest in the NBA, which takes away the easy transition baskets a tired visiting team needs. Nick Nurse’s side are 4-1 at home.
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Toronto Raptors: Barnes and Barrett carrying the scoring while Leonard sits 
Toronto’s offence has held up: 118.2 points per game and an offensive rating of 117.0, ninth in the league. Where the points come from is the concern. The Raptors shoot 46.2% from the field but 31.5% from three, and they’ve leaned on 14.8 offensive rebounds a game to make up the difference.
Scottie Barnes leads them with 23.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists. At the Clippers on 2 November he scored 15 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter as Toronto came back from 13 down to win 125-118. That came on the second night of a back-to-back, which is the best evidence in their favour for Thursday.
RJ Barrett averages 21.6 points and had 27 with seven rebounds in Milwaukee. Alijah Martin went 9 of 11 for 27 points that night, with six threes, but his season average is 6.3 points. We wouldn’t build anything on one hot game from the bench.
Leonard averaged 19.5 points in his two appearances before the knee flared up. Without him, Darko Rajakovic leans on Immanuel Quickley (17.4 points, 5.8 assists) and Jamal Shead (6.6 assists) to organise the offence, which is why Quickley’s hamstring is the injury to watch.
Toronto’s defensive rating of 111.6 ranks 10th, but the road has been harder. Denver shot 61.5% and won the third quarter 41-15 in a 128-109 win on 4 November. The Raptors are 3-3 away from home this season.
Probable lineup Philadelphia 76ers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Toronto Raptors: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors
Our prediction: Philadelphia 76ers to win and cover the spread
We’re backing Philadelphia to win by a clear margin. They’ll have had a day off, Toronto will be playing their third game in four nights, and Leonard’s absence takes away the player the Raptors traded for to win games like this one.
The matchup points the same way. Toronto’s weakest area is three-point shooting at 31.5%, and Philadelphia’s defence is at its best against the three. The risk for us is rebounding: if the Raptors turn their 14.8 offensive boards a game into second chances, the margin shrinks.
No line had been posted at the time of writing. We’d take the 76ers on the spread up to seven and a half points, and we’d check Embiid’s foot and Quickley’s hamstring on the injury report before tip-off.
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