- 1 Albania vs Finland: first place in Group C1 and a debt from Helsinki
- 2 Albania: 8-3 on goals, three for Asllani and no Mehmeti in the squad
- 3 Finland: seven against San Marino, two goals in the three games since
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Albania vs Finland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Albania vs Finland: first place in Group C1 and a debt from Helsinki 
Leo Walta beat Albania twice in Helsinki on 3 October, both times with direct free kicks, and became the first Finland player since Alexei Eremenko in 2004 to do that in one international. The second came with under 20 minutes left and won the game 2-1.
Albania had led through Rey Manaj’s fourth-minute header from a Kristjan Asllani corner. Then Etrit Berisha played the ball straight to Daniel Håkans, brought him down on the edge of the box and was sent off after 22 minutes. Walta scored from that free kick, and Albania played the remaining 68 minutes with ten men.
The return is in Tirana on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time at Air Albania Stadium. Albania lead League C Group 1 with nine points from four games. Belarus and Finland have seven each, with Belarus second on head-to-head after a 0-0 in Helsinki and a 1-0 win in Budapest.
The group winner is promoted to League B and the runner-up goes into the promotion play-offs. On the final matchday, 15 November, Albania travel to Budapest to face Belarus behind closed doors, while Finland host San Marino, the side they beat 7-0 in September.
History favours the visitors. Albania have played Finland eight times and won two, the last of them in September 1980, and they’ve lost the last four competitive meetings. Thursday is their first home game against Finland since 2001.
I’d put less weight on that record than on what both teams have done since September. Finland have scored twice in three games since the 7-0, and neither goal came from open play.
Albania: 8-3 on goals, three for Asllani and no Mehmeti in the squad 
Rolando Maran’s side have won three of their four group games, scoring eight and conceding three. Asllani has three of those goals: the opener in the 2-0 win over Belarus on 26 September, then both in the 2-1 win over San Marino on 6 October, the second a penalty in stoppage time.
That San Marino game is a warning. Albania needed a 92nd-minute penalty to beat a side that has lost all four group games, and Lorenzo Lazzari’s equaliser in Tirana is still the only goal San Marino have scored in the campaign.
Maran named 27 players on 7 November. Anis Mehmeti, who scored in the 3-0 win in Serravalle, isn’t among them, and neither are Armando Broja or Adrion Pajaziti. Ysni Ismaili of Dinamo City gets a first call-up in defence.
Berisha is in the squad again, alongside Alen Sherri, who replaced him in Helsinki, and Mario Dajsinani. Who starts in goal is the one selection that could change how this game is played.
Up front, Maran has Manaj, Myrto Uzuni, Mirlind Daku and Ernest Muçi to pick from. Uzuni scored in San Marino and Muçi scored against Belarus, while Berat Djimsiti anchors a back line that kept clean sheets in both of those games.
At home, Albania have beaten Belarus 2-0 and San Marino 2-1. Neither win came by more than two goals, and the bookmakers have them at around 1.94 to make it three from three in Tirana.
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Finland: seven against San Marino, two goals in the three games since 
Finland’s group record looks better than it is. The 7-0 in Serravalle on 26 September, with a Joel Pohjanpalo hat-trick and two from Walta, accounts for seven of their nine goals.
Since then they’ve drawn 0-0 with Belarus in Helsinki, beaten ten-man Albania with two free kicks and lost 1-0 to Belarus in Budapest on 6 October, when Artem Shumansky scored after 16 seconds. Lukas Hradecky saved a 15th-minute penalty from Zakhar Volkov that night, or Finland would have been two down inside a quarter of an hour.
Jacob Friis has named 25 players. Oliver Antman of Anderlecht and Naatan Skyttä of Kaiserslautern return, as do Robert Ivanov and Fredrik Jensen of Aris. Glen Kamara, Robin Lod and Matti Peltola miss out, while Ryan Mahuta, who went off injured in Budapest, is included.
Pohjanpalo has 22 goals in 91 caps and remains the reference point, with Benjamin Källman, Topi Keskinen and Adrian Svanbäck the other forwards. Walta, now at LAFC, has five international goals and is the obvious threat from set-pieces.
With Hradecky in goal, Finland have conceded two in four games, and one of those came in the first minute in Budapest. Kaan Kairinen, booked in Helsinki, is back in the squad alongside Adam Markhiev.
Their only win against anyone other than San Marino came at home, with an extra man for 68 minutes. Away from Helsinki, they’ve played a side above San Marino once and lost.
Probable lineup Albania: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Finland: Not announced at time of publication.
Free Football Prediction: Albania vs Finland
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (around 1.59)
I’m going with under 2.5 goals. Finland have scored twice in three games against sides other than San Marino, both from free kicks, and Albania have conceded three in four, two of them in a game they played mostly with ten men.
Take San Marino out of it and the four matches between Albania, Finland and Belarus have produced six goals, 1.5 a game. Albania’s two home wins finished 2-0 and 2-1, and the hosts go in without Mehmeti, who scored in September.
Albania can win this, but the under covers a narrow home win, a draw or a 1-0 for Finland. With first place on the line and the last matchday still to come, neither side needs to open the game up.
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