- 1 Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals: no Ullmark for Ottawa, 11 goals allowed in two games for Washington
- 2 Ottawa Senators: 5-2-0 at home, and a road trip finished 2-2-1
- 3 Washington Capitals: 6-4-0 at home, 2-2-0 away, and 11 goals conceded in two games
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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- 11 About visuals
Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals: no Ullmark for Ottawa, 11 goals allowed in two games for Washington 
Linus Ullmark hasn’t played since he was helped off the ice against Florida on 21 October. Ottawa placed him on injured reserve the next day, and the Senators have gone 3-3-1 in the seven games since, splitting the net between Samuel Ersson and Johansson.
That’s the backdrop for Tuesday 10 November at Canadian Tire Centre, puck drop 7:00pm ET. Washington comes to Ottawa having lost 5-1 to Minnesota and 6-5 to Dallas, both at home, after a three-game winning streak that had taken it to 8-4-0.
Ottawa’s last result was its best of the stretch. The Senators trailed Buffalo 1-0 after two periods on Wednesday, tied it through Shane Pinto at 11:33 of the third and won it on Michael Amadio’s one-timer at 16:51. It was their first regulation win when trailing after 40 minutes since 21 January 2024.
Ersson made 23 saves in that game. When Ullmark went down, his save percentage stood at .831 against Ullmark’s .945, and that gap is the main reason we didn’t treat Ottawa’s 10-6-1 record at face value when we looked at this game.
Both teams play once before Tuesday. Ottawa hosts Utah on Saturday, and Washington hosts Florida on Saturday afternoon. The standings and figures below are as they were on Friday morning.
Ottawa Senators: 5-2-0 at home, and a road trip finished 2-2-1 
Ottawa is 10-6-1 with 21 points, fourth in the Atlantic. The Senators have scored 54 goals and allowed 52, and their goal difference of +2 is the smallest of the top four teams in the division.
Home has been a different story. Ottawa is 5-2-0 at Canadian Tire Centre, with wins over Philadelphia and Nashville, two wins against New York opposition and a 5-1 win over Florida, and the only regulation defeats came against St. Louis and San Jose. Ersson started both of those, and they finished 7-2 and 6-2.
The five-game road trip that ended in Buffalo went 2-2-1. Ersson won 5-1 in San Jose and 2-1 in Buffalo, lost 6-5 in overtime in Los Angeles, while Johansson was beaten 4-1 in Vegas and 6-3 in Anaheim.
Tim Stutzle set up the winner against the Sabres after poking the puck off Rasmus Dahlin at the Ottawa blue line. The assist was the 273rd of his career, level with Alexei Yashin for fifth in franchise history. Drake Batherson’s eight-game point streak ended the same night.
Coach Travis Green called it a complete 60-minute game and said his team checked well and played fast. Buffalo coach Lindy Ruff admitted the Sabres were outworked and lost more puck battles, which ended their three-game winning streak.
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Washington Capitals: 6-4-0 at home, 2-2-0 away, and 11 goals conceded in two games 
Washington is 8-6-0 with 16 points from 14 games, fourth in the Metropolitan. The Capitals have scored 49 goals and allowed 48, and they’ve played fewer games than every team in their division except Columbus.
The last two games went badly in different ways. Minnesota scored twice in the first 5:27 on 1 November and won 5-1. Two nights later Dallas led 4-0 inside the first six minutes of the second period, Jason Robertson scored a natural hat trick, and Washington’s comeback ended one goal short at 6-5.
Logan Thompson was pulled in that game after allowing four goals on 11 shots, and Charlie Lindgren made nine saves in relief. Washington also traded a 2027 seventh-round pick to New Jersey for goaltender Remi Poirier on 1 November.
The offense is in better shape than the defense. Jordan Kyrou had a goal and two assists against Dallas and has 12 points in his last eight games. Ryan Leonard and Jakob Chychrun each had a goal and an assist, and Dylan Strome added two assists.
Coach Spencer Carbery said his players fought instead of folding at 4-0 down. The Capitals did score five against Dallas, but four came after they trailed 5-1, and they’ve allowed five or more in each of their last two games.
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Washington Capitals: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals
Our prediction: Ottawa Senators to win (overtime included)
We’re taking Ottawa at home. The Senators are 5-2-0 at Canadian Tire Centre, they’ve just won a 2-1 game on the road by checking well for 60 minutes, and Washington arrives having allowed 11 goals in two games with its starter pulled in the second of them.
The goaltending risk is on our side of the pick. Ersson lost both of Ottawa’s home defeats this season, and Ullmark’s absence is the reason we’re including overtime instead of asking for a regulation win.
The Capitals’ road record is 2-2-0, and their defensive numbers over the last week are worse than Ottawa’s. Stutzle, Pinto and Amadio produced the goals on Wednesday, and we’d expect the same forward group to find more room against a Washington defense that has given up early goals in both recent defeats.
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