- 1 Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: no Bolton league win at Pride Park, no Derby home win this season
- 2 Derby County: 11-29 in goals, no home win and a long injury list
- 3 Bolton Wanderers: four unbeaten away, and Dalby on six goals
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: no Bolton league win at Pride Park, no Derby home win this season 
Bolton Wanderers last won a league game away at Derby County in September 1981, 2-1 at the Baseball Ground. They’ve never won one at Pride Park, where Derby have taken six straight home meetings and are unbeaten in 13 league games against them since 1994.
Friday’s visit, kick-off 20:00 UK time on 6 November, sets that record against this season’s form. Derby are 23rd in the Championship with seven points from 14 games, and they haven’t won a league match at Pride Park this season.
John Eustace’s side lost 4-0 at home to Norwich on Tuesday after a 4-1 defeat at Millwall on 31 October. Their last league win came at Portsmouth on 1 September, and they’ve conceded in each of their last ten league games while scoring more than once in none of them.
Bolton have 17 points and sit seven clear of the bottom three, in their first Championship season since 2018-19. Steven Schumacher’s side won 1-0 at Charlton on Tuesday, and they’ve taken three wins and two draws from seven away games.
The market has Derby at 2.50, the draw at 3.40 and Bolton at 2.70, and Bolton are 2.00 draw no bet. We think this season’s away record should count for more than a run of history that began in the 1990s.
The 18 most recent meetings split into eight Derby wins, six draws and four Bolton wins. Derby won the last of them 1-0 at Pride Park on 16 March 2024, and Bolton’s last win over them was 2-1 at home on 2 September 2023.
Derby County: 11-29 in goals, no home win and a long injury list 
Derby’s home record is two draws and five defeats, with four goals scored and 14 conceded. Their 11 league goals are the joint-lowest total in the division and only one defence has been worse than their 29 conceded.
The last five league results under Eustace: 4-0 against Norwich, 4-1 at Millwall, 1-1 at Sheffield United, 1-0 at home to Stoke and 4-1 at QPR. They average 1.1 expected goals for and 2.1 against, and they’ve kept one clean sheet all season.
Clark has the best return in the squad, with three goals and two assists, and Morris and Bilbija have one apiece.
Five players are definitely missing: Cashin, Langas, Forsyth, Murkin and Charlie Taylor. Matt Clarke and Patrick Agyemang are back in training, with Friday unconfirmed for both, while Ozoh, Ward and Hedges are doubts and Szmodics came off injured against Norwich.
Derby’s away record of one win, two draws and four defeats is modest, though it does show they can score away from Pride Park, with seven of their 11 goals coming on the road. The ten league games since Portsmouth have brought three draws and seven defeats, and the last three of them produced two goals for and nine against.
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Bolton Wanderers: four unbeaten away, and Dalby on six goals 
Bolton took one point from their first three away league games. Since then they’ve gone four unbeaten on the road, winning three and drawing one, including 3-1 at Wolves on 13 October and 0-0 at Southampton on 17 October.
Their home form has gone the other way: two wins and five defeats, with 5-1 against Middlesbrough on 23 October and 3-2 against Bristol City on 31 October the worst of it. Ten of their 19 league goals have come away.
Dalby has six league goals, almost a third of the side’s total, and he’s expected to lead the line again. Ito has two, and Simons and Rodrigues have one each.
Bolton have kept four in the league, one of them at Charlton on Tuesday, and Bonham is set to continue in goal with Bazunu a doubt.
Toal, Erhahon, Hardie, McAtee and Nelson are out or unlikely, and both Sheehan and Ito looked hurt at The Valley. Expected goals sit at 1.4 for and 2.0 against, which leaves Bolton vulnerable if Derby’s attack finds any rhythm.
Bolton’s away games average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, so the 1.53 on both teams to score looks fair. Their last six league results read a 1-0 win at Charlton, a 3-2 home defeat by Bristol City, a 5-1 home defeat by Middlesbrough, 0-0 at Southampton, a 3-1 win at Wolves and a 2-1 home defeat by Stoke.
Probable lineup Derby County: Widell Zetterstrom; Johnston, Nyambe, Sanderson, Robinson; Travis, Clark; Fuseini, Bilbija, Brewster; Morris
Probable lineup Bolton Wanderers: Bonham; Larrazabal, Forino-Joseph, Famewo; Conway; Simons, Watson; Iling-Junior, Rodrigues, Gale; Dalby
Free Football Prediction: Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers
Our prediction: Bolton Wanderers draw no bet @ 2.00
Derby have scored four goals in seven home games and conceded eight in their last two matches. Bolton have won three of their last four away league games and drawn the other, and Dalby’s six goals are twice the best total in the Derby squad.
The record at Pride Park is the strongest argument against us, along with Bolton’s own defence, which has conceded 26 goals in 14 games.
Draw no bet at 2.00 returns the stake if Derby scrape a point, and we’d rather back four unbeaten away games than a pattern from 1981, so Bolton are the pick. Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 would be our second choice, after nine goals in Derby’s last two matches.
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