- 1 Vancouver Canucks vs Philadelphia Flyers: a 31st-ranked penalty kill and a Flyers back-to-back
- 2 Vancouver Canucks: 4.53 goals allowed and a 1-7-0 record at Rogers Arena
- 3 Philadelphia Flyers: 2.18 goals a game, and a team that keeps conceding four and five
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Vancouver Canucks vs Philadelphia Flyers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Vancouver Canucks vs Philadelphia Flyers: a 31st-ranked penalty kill and a Flyers back-to-back 
Philadelphia plays in Calgary at 7:00pm ET on Sunday and in Vancouver at 9:30pm ET on Monday 9 November. Those are the second and third stops on a five-game road trip, and the flight between them is the only rest the Flyers get.
The Canucks are the team waiting at Rogers Arena, and they went into Thursday’s game in Winnipeg at 3-13-1 with seven points. They’d lost three straight, the latest a 5-4 defeat to Anaheim on Tuesday, in which Cutter Gauthier scored three goals.
I don’t look at that record and think about who wins. I look at what these two teams allow: Vancouver gives up 4.53 goals a game, the most in the NHL, and Philadelphia has allowed 58 in 17 by the game scores.
The Flyers were 4-9-4 before Thursday night at Madison Square Garden. Minnesota beat them 4-2 on Tuesday, and they’ve won once since a 5-2 defeat in Washington on 28 October, a 6-3 win over Utah on 1 November.
Vancouver’s games have been high-scoring all season. Over its last 10 it went 1-8-1 with 27 goals scored and 40 allowed, which comes to 6.7 goals a game.
Vancouver Canucks: 4.53 goals allowed and a 1-7-0 record at Rogers Arena 
Vancouver has allowed 77 goals in 17 games. Its team save percentage is .856, and it’s allowed 31.4 shots a game while taking 21.6, last in the league on both counts.
The home record is where it hurts most. The Canucks were 1-6-0 at Rogers Arena going into Tuesday’s game, and the loss to Anaheim makes it 1-7-0.
Even strength hasn’t offered any shelter, with 39 goals scored and 56 allowed. The Canucks have taken 367 shots and allowed 533, so a 13.9% shooting percentage is what’s keeping their attack afloat. Only eight of their players had more than seven points going into Thursday, and Brendan Gallagher, Marco Rossi and Drew O’Connor weren’t among them.
Leevi Merilainen has been the named starter, with a career .889 save percentage and a 3.02 goals-against average. Kevin Lankinen is listed at 1-8-0, so neither goaltender has given this team a run of saves.
The penalty kill sits at 63.16%, 31st in the league, after 21 goals allowed on 57 chances. The power play converts at 21.82%, 14th in the league, with eight goals from 34 chances over the last 10 games.
Elias Pettersson leads the team with four goals and 14 assists. Brock Boeser has 14 points, Jonathan Lekkerimaki has six goals among his 13, and Filip Hronek has 11 assists from the blue line. Vancouver’s 3.00 goals a game ranks 19th, which is respectable for a team this far down.
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Philadelphia Flyers: 2.18 goals a game, and a team that keeps conceding four and five 
The Flyers have 37 goals in 17 games by the scores, and they’ve given up four or more in four of the last five games I can find. Anaheim scored five on 24 October, Columbus four in overtime three days later, Washington five on 28 October and Minnesota four on Tuesday.
This is the matchup Philadelphia’s attack has needed. Its power play has ranked near the bottom of the league, but a 63.16% kill gives it room, and Denver Barkey’s move to the bumper produced a goal against Minnesota.
Matvei Michkov has 14 goals and 10 assists in his last 24 regular-season games, dating to 3 April. Tyson Foerster scored on Tuesday, Trevor Zegras has four goals and Jamie Drysdale has four assists across the last two games.
Tuesday’s loss showed how fine the line is. Philadelphia outshot Minnesota 25-22, and Jesper Wallstedt made 23 saves on 25 shots, yet the Flyers trailed 3-0 inside 21 minutes and took an empty-net goal at 18:36 of the third. Travis Sanheim is playing 25:44 a night on a blue line that hasn’t kept the puck out, and that workload doesn’t shrink on a back-to-back.
The net is the unknown on a back-to-back. Joseph Woll and Dan Vladar have been splitting starts, with .904 and .900 save percentages before 27 October, and if one plays in Calgary, the other is likely to get Rogers Arena. Vladar stopped 18 of 21 shots against the Wild on Tuesday.
Philadelphia’s injuries are limited. Rasmus Ristolainen’s hand has him listed until around 11 November, and Nikita Grebenkin is out long term after back surgery. Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett, who missed time in October, were both in the projected lines for Thursday.
Probable lineup Vancouver Canucks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Philadelphia Flyers: Zegras, Dvorak, Konecny / Foerster, Barkey, Tippett / Martone, Cates, Michkov / Knuble, Couturier, Acciari; Sanheim, Drysdale / York, Bonk / Seeler, Benoit; Woll or Vladar (projected lines, starter not announced)
Free NHL Prediction: Vancouver Canucks vs Philadelphia Flyers
Our prediction: Over 5.5 goals
I won’t pick a winner here. I’m taking over 5.5 goals, because Vancouver’s last 10 games averaged 6.7 goals, it allows 4.53 a night, and its penalty kill stops 63.16% of what it faces.
Philadelphia’s offense is the risk, at 2.18 goals a game, and a team on its second night in two days can run out of legs. Its goaltenders, though, are at .904 and .900, and tired defenses give up chances too.
Vancouver scores 3.00 a game on a power play ranked 14th, so it can hold up its end. Both goaltending situations are weak enough that I’d want no part of the under.
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