- 1 Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: a side that only wins at home meets one that just lost 5-1
- 2 Atalanta: winless in four league games, and seven players sidelined
- 3 Kairat Almaty: 60 points at home in Kazakhstan, one in the league phase
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: a side that only wins at home meets one that just lost 5-1
Ten of Atalanta’s 11 Serie A points have come in Bergamo. That split has shaped Maurizio Sarri’s season, and it’s the first thing I looked at for Thursday, because this one is at the New Balance Arena.
Kairat Almaty arrive 31st of 36 in the Conference League after a 1-1 draw at Riga and a 5-1 home defeat to Panathinaikos on 22 October. Atalanta are 15th with three points, having beaten Pafos 3-1 and lost 2-0 at Ajax.
Kick-off is 17:45 UK time on Thursday 5 November, the third round of the league phase. Atalanta also face Parma in Serie A on Monday night, so their last result before this game wasn’t known at the time of writing.
The match-winner market leaves nothing to chew on, with Atalanta 1.17, the draw 7.80 and Kairat 20.00. Nobody should take 1.17 about a team with their defensive numbers.
These clubs have no previous meetings on record. The question I want answered is whether Atalanta can win without conceding, and their recent games say they can’t.
Atalanta: winless in four league games, and seven players sidelined 
Atalanta’s last Serie A win came against Venezia, 3-1 at home. Since then they’ve lost 3-2 at AC Milan, drawn 4-4 with Frosinone and drawn 2-2 at Fiorentina, with 17 goals shared across those three games.
Their last ten matches read three wins, two draws and five defeats, with 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. They’ve kept one clean sheet in those ten.
The home and away split is stark. Atalanta take 2.00 points per game at home and 0.20 away, and that’s why I’d ignore the Ajax defeat when judging Thursday. Tolu Arokodare and Abdellah Ouazane scored both Ajax goals after 87 minutes.
Nikola Krstovic has six league goals and leads the side. Charles De Ketelaere and Nicola Zalewski scored in the draw at Fiorentina, and Zalewski has three assists.
The treatment room is the bigger story. Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Raoul Bellanova, Isak Hien, Sead Kolasinac, Odilon Kossounou and Gianluca Gaetano are all sidelined, while Franck Kessie and Thomas Kristensen were doubtful last week. Four of those names are defenders, and it shows in the goals against.
Bergamo hasn’t been a fortress in every sense. Cagliari won 2-1 there and Frosinone left with a 4-4 draw, and both teams have scored in seven of Atalanta’s last ten. Pafos were still beaten 3-1 on 15 October, and home is where almost all of their points have come from.
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Kairat Almaty: 60 points at home in Kazakhstan, one in the league phase 
Kairat were second in the Kazakhstan Premier League in mid-October with 60 points from 27 games, four behind Ordabasy. Rafael Urazbakhtin’s side had won 18 and lost three at that point.
Europe has been a different level. Panathinaikos scored through Taborda after six minutes, Cyriel Dessers twice, Kangwa and Rastoder, and Bekbolat’s goal on 79 minutes was the only reply.
That defeat stands out against the rest of their numbers. Over ten games they’ve conceded 1.40 a game with 0.99 expected against, and they kept four clean sheets.
They’ve also scored in nine of those ten, averaging 1.80 a game on 1.53 expected goals. Edmilson had nine league goals by mid-October and leads the scoring.
Their away record over ten games is one win, two draws and one defeat, with 1.25 points per game. The Riga draw on 15 October is the one away result in this competition so far, and Atalanta at home is a far harder trip than that one.
Kairat took 1.25 points per game away and 1.67 at home across their last ten, so the road hasn’t cost them much. They failed to score once in that run. Most of that record came against Kazakh sides, and the strongest team they’ve met in this phase put five past them.
Probable lineup Atalanta: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Kairat Almaty: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
Our prediction: Atalanta to win and both teams to score
Atalanta’s home record makes them the winners here, with 2.00 points per game at the New Balance Arena against 0.20 away. Kairat conceded five in their last European game.
The straight win at 1.17 is too short for me, and a defence with one clean sheet in ten and four defenders missing doesn’t deserve a win-to-nil bet. Kairat also came away from Riga with a 1-1 draw, so a low-scoring stalemate can’t be ruled out.
Atalanta have conceded in nine of their last ten, and Kairat have scored in nine of theirs. I’d back the home win with goals at both ends, a combination that asks Sarri’s side only to keep doing what they’ve done all season.
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