- 1 Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen: 31st against 33rd, 16 goals conceded between them
- 2 Lillestrom: 2.60 conceded a game at home, and no clean sheet in five home matches
- 3 Viktoria Plzen: no points yet, but 3.00 goals a game on the road
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen: 31st against 33rd, 16 goals conceded between them 
Real Sociedad won 6-0 in Lillestrom on 22 October. That result left Hans Odegaard’s side with nine goals conceded in three Europa League games, and it’s the backdrop to Thursday 5 November, when Viktoria Plzen visit with kick-off at 17:45 UK time.
Neither club has won in the league phase. Lillestrom are 31st on one point after a 2-1 home defeat to Torreense, a 1-1 draw at Sparta Prague and the Sociedad game. Plzen are 33rd with no points, having lost 3-0 at home to Union Saint-Gilloise, 2-1 at Ferencvaros and 2-1 at home to Levski Sofia.
Those results add up to 16 goals conceded and four scored across six matches. A win here would give either side its first three points of the phase and move it clear of the other.
The clubs haven’t met before, so there’s no history to read. Bookmakers lean towards the visitors: Plzen are 2.25, the draw 3.60 and Lillestrom 2.80.
The goals markets lean harder. Over 2.5 goals is 1.57, and both teams to score is 1.50 with No at 2.50, which is the market we’ve settled on.
We’d treat the 6-0 as an outlier in size but not in direction, because Lillestrom’s home figures over a longer run show the same weakness.
Lillestrom: 2.60 conceded a game at home, and no clean sheet in five home matches 
Lillestrom have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten in all competitions, for 1.70 points a game. Their away return of 2.00 is better than the 1.40 they’ve managed at home.
Home games have been the problem for the defence: 2.60 goals conceded a game in that sample, no clean sheets, and both teams scoring in 80% of them. Away from home the same side has conceded 1.00.
The attacking figures are steadier. They’ve scored 1.60 a game at home and 1.80 away, and they’ve failed to score in only two of those ten.
Olsen has three goals in this season’s Europa League run and Foss has one. Both are named in the expected attack for Thursday.
The last five entries in their record across all competitions show four wins and one defeat.
Jebara is out with a groin injury. Goalkeeper Dahlberg and Garnas are both doubtful, and a change in goal would matter for a side that’s just let in six.
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Viktoria Plzen: no points yet, but 3.00 goals a game on the road 
Plzen have won four and lost six of their last ten, with no draws, for 1.20 points a game. Those numbers split sharply: 0.60 points a game at home, 1.80 away.
Kovac’s side have scored 3.00 a game away from home in that sample and have failed to score in none of those matches. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away games.
The European campaign has been far less productive. Plzen have scored two goals in three league-phase games, one each against Ferencvaros and Levski, and they’ve conceded seven.
The last five entries in their record show recovery, with wins in three of those matches. Their most recent European game was still a defeat, 2-1 at home to Levski on 22 October.
Visinsky and Kabongo have two goals each in this season’s Europa League run, and Hrosovsky has one. Adu, who also scored, is out on a coach’s decision.
Jemelka misses out with a knee injury and Tvrdon is off the roster. Expected goals over the last ten stand at 1.79 for and 1.63 against, close to balance and a long way from the 0-3 record of the league phase.
Probable lineup Lillestrom: Dahlberg; Ottesen, Akanji, Bassi, Felix Va, Ottosson, Ibrahimaj, Kristiansen, Olsen, Paintsil, Foss
Probable lineup Viktoria Plzen: Memic; Panos, Cerv, Ladra, Visinsky, Hrosovsky, Kabongo, Dweh, Wiegele, Doski, Prebsl
Free Europa League Prediction: Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen
Our prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.50
Lillestrom have conceded in every home game of the last ten and have scored in all but two of those ten overall. Plzen have scored in every away game of that sample, and both teams have scored in 70% of their last ten matches.
The case against is the league phase itself: these clubs have scored four goals between them in six European games, and two of those six ended with Lillestrom or Plzen failing to score. We still prefer this market, because neither defence has kept a clean sheet in the league phase and both attacks have produced far more outside it.
At 1.50, both teams to score suits a match we can’t split on the result. Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 is the next option, and the match result at 2.25 and 2.80 is too close for us to back either side.
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