- 1 Sturm Graz vs Celje: one goal scored, four points, and no home goal conceded
- 2 Sturm Graz: two home clean sheets in Europe and 2.20 points a game at the Merkur Arena
- 3 Celje: seven conceded in Europe, but 57% clean sheets on the road
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Sturm Graz vs Celje
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sturm Graz vs Celje: one goal scored, four points, and no home goal conceded 
Sturm Graz have scored one goal in three Europa League games and taken four points from them. That goal beat Marseille at the Merkur Arena on 22 October, and it’s the reason Ingolitsch’s side sit 19th going into Thursday 5 November.
Celje are the visitors, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time. They’re 29th on one point, having lost 2-0 at Bayer Leverkusen and 3-0 at home to Omonia before a 2-2 draw with Salzburg on 22 October.
Sturm’s two home European games have produced a 0-0 with Rennes and that 1-0 over Marseille. The only goals they’ve conceded in the competition came in a 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth, so the home record reads two games, four points and two clean sheets.
Celje have the worst defensive return of the two by a distance, with seven goals conceded in three games. They did at least score twice against Salzburg, which is two more than they managed in their first two outings.
There’s no previous meeting between these clubs to go on. Sturm are 1.53 with some bookmakers and as high as 1.75 with others, while the draw is around 4.20 and Celje between 4.56 and 5.25.
We’d take the longest price available on the home side. The gap between those two figures is wide for a home favourite in a league-phase game, and it’s the main reason we looked at this market rather than the totals.
Sturm Graz: two home clean sheets in Europe and 2.20 points a game at the Merkur Arena 
Over their last ten in all competitions Sturm have won five, drawn two and lost three, for 1.70 points a game. At home that figure rises to 2.20, from three wins and two draws without a defeat.
They’ve scored 2.20 a game at home in that sample and conceded 0.80. Away from home they’ve let in 2.00 a game, and the 3-0 at Bournemouth and 3-0 at Salzburg on 20 September both came on the road.
League form supports the home numbers. Sturm beat Grazer AK 6-1 on 18 October, won 2-0 at Austria Vienna on 10 October and drew 2-2 with Ried on 25 October, three days after beating Marseille.
Their expected goals back up the attacking output: 1.91 a game at home over the last ten. The concern is the other side of that figure, because their expected goals against at home is 1.65, about twice the 0.80 they’ve actually allowed.
In Europe the goal came from Diakite, and Weinhandl supplied the assist. Quarshie has started all three league-phase games.
Ingolitsch is expected to use a 3-4-1-2, with Khudyakov in goal. Seidl and Malic are among the names listed in the expected side, and we’ve seen no confirmed injury news ahead of the game.
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Celje: seven conceded in Europe, but 57% clean sheets on the road 
Ivan Maevskiy’s side have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten. Their overall return is 1.50 points a game, and their away return is slightly better at 1.57.
That away record is the strongest argument for them. They’ve conceded 0.71 a game on their travels over that sample and kept clean sheets in 57% of those matches.
The European figures tell a harsher story. Leverkusen scored twice against them in September, Omonia scored three in Celje on 15 October, and Salzburg scored twice on 22 October.
The draw with Salzburg was the best result of the three, and Kramer and Kucys have a goal each in the league phase. Seslar and Dukuly have the two assists.
Scoring has been the wider limit: 1.10 goals a game over the last ten, from an expected 1.48, with three of those ten matches ending without a Celje goal.
Frelih is expected to start in goal, with Verbic, Seslar and Kvesic among the likely starters in a 4-3-3. We’ve seen no confirmed injury news here either.
Probable lineup Sturm Graz: Khudyakov; Malic, Geyrhofer, Grgic, Quarshie, Koller, Weinhandl, Gorenc Stankovic, Balbo, Seidl, Matoshi
Probable lineup Celje: Frelih; Suhovrsnik, Leban, Tutyskinas, Seslar, Avdyli, Bejger, Zabukovnik, Kramer, Kvesic, Verbic
Free Europa League Prediction: Sturm Graz vs Celje
Our prediction: Sturm Graz to win @ 1.75
Sturm are unbeaten at home over their last five there, with 2.20 goals a game scored and two clean sheets from two home European matches. Celje have conceded seven in three league-phase games and have one point.
The case against is Celje’s away defence, which has let in 0.71 a game, and Sturm’s expected goals against at home, which suggests they’ve been fortunate to concede so few. We still hold the pick, because Celje have failed to win any of their three Europa League games and Sturm kept Rennes and Marseille out at this ground.
At 1.75 the home win is the pick. We’d drop it if the price falls below 1.45, and over 2.5 goals at 1.57 is the alternative for anyone who wants to avoid the result market.
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