- 1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings: two trade requests, one perfect home record
- 2 Tampa Bay Lightning: 6-0-0 on home ice, with Hagel leading the scoring
- 3 Detroit Red Wings: no Larkin, a 66.7% penalty kill and a back-to-back
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings: two trade requests, one perfect home record 
Nikita Kucherov asked Tampa Bay for a trade on Friday and told the club he won’t re-sign when his eight-year, $76 million contract expires next summer. A day later general manager Julien BriseBois said the Lightning have “no intention” of moving him. Kucherov is the franchise’s all-time points leader with 1,139 and the reigning Hart Trophy winner.
Detroit is dealing with its own version of the story. Dylan Larkin asked for a trade in June, lost the captaincy on 11 September and sat out the 4-1 win over Chicago on 29 October while he waits for a deal. The Red Wings then suspended him for choosing not to play.
The two teams meet on Tuesday 3 November at Benchmark International Arena, puck drop 7pm ET. Tampa Bay is 8-3-1 with 17 points, and it’s 6-0-0 at home. Detroit is 6-4-3 with 15 points and was last in the Atlantic Division before its Saturday game against St. Louis.
The schedule favors the home team. Detroit hosts St. Louis on Saturday, plays in Florida on Monday and travels across the state for this game, the second night of a back-to-back. Tampa Bay plays in Nashville on Saturday and then has two days off.
Recent meetings have gone Tampa’s way. The Lightning won three of four last season, including 6-3 in Detroit on 28 November 2025, 4-1 at home on 12 March 2026 and 4-3 in overtime on 13 April 2026, when Kucherov scored 27 seconds into the extra period.
Detroit’s only win in that series was 2-1 in overtime at Little Caesars Arena on 17 October 2025, with John Gibson stopping 31 of 32 shots. Gibson is still the Red Wings’ main starter.
The goal totals point the same way as the standings. Tampa Bay has scored 44 and allowed 38 in 12 games. Detroit has scored 35 and allowed 36 in 13, and its 6-4-3 record leans on five games that were settled after regulation.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 6-0-0 on home ice, with Hagel leading the scoring 
Every home game has ended in a Tampa Bay win: 3-1 over Washington, 4-1 over Philadelphia, 3-2 over Minnesota, 4-3 in overtime against Seattle, 4-2 over Vancouver and 6-4 over Winnipeg on 29 October. On the road they’re 2-3-1.
Brandon Hagel leads the team with 8 goals and 16 points in 12 games. Kucherov has 4 goals and 11 assists, Jake Guentzel 7 goals and 13 points, and Brayden Point 10 points. The Lightning have scored 44 and allowed 38.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has started eight of the 12 games, going 5-3-0 with a 2.78 goals-against average and an .884 save percentage. Hildeby has appeared three times, going 2-0-1 with an .885 save percentage.
The power play is the weak area, converting 16.28% of its chances. The penalty kill sits at 78.13%. Depth scoring has covered for it, with Anthony Cirelli, Holmberg and Carlson on four goals each.
Yanni Gourde is on injured reserve with a hip problem, and Zemgus Girgensons missed the Winnipeg game with a lower-body injury. There’s been no indication that Kucherov will follow Larkin’s example and sit out, and the club has said publicly it won’t trade him.
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Detroit Red Wings: no Larkin, a 66.7% penalty kill and a back-to-back 
Detroit’s penalty kill has stopped 66.67% of opposing power plays this season. The power play has been better at 21.74%, but the Red Wings have scored 35 goals and allowed 36 in 13 games, excluding shootouts.
Alex DeBrincat leads the team with 15 points, on 6 goals and 9 assists. Viktor Arvidsson has scored 8 goals, Lucas Raymond has 12 points and Emmitt Finnie 5 goals. Moritz Seider has 7 assists from the blue line.
Larkin’s absence takes out the team’s top center. He had 2 goals and 6 points in 10 games before he was held out, and he holds a full no-trade clause, so the situation could last beyond this week.
Gibson has played nine games, at 4-4-1 with a 3.15 goals-against average and an .874 save percentage. Tarasov has been sharper in four appearances, at 1.40 and .940, and with the back-to-back one of them will likely start in Florida and the other in Tampa.
Five of Detroit’s 13 games have gone past regulation, and two of its six wins came in a shootout. On the road the Red Wings are 2-1-2, with wins in Vancouver and Edmonton.
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Lightning: Not announced at time of publication (Andrei Vasilevskiy has started 8 of 12 games in goal)
Probable lineup Detroit Red Wings: Not announced at time of publication (second night of a back-to-back; John Gibson or Tarasov in goal)
Free NHL Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings
Our prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning to win
We’re backing Tampa Bay. The Lightning are 6-0-0 at home, they’ll have had two days off, and Detroit will be playing its third game in four days without its top center.
The main risk is Tampa’s power play at 16.28%, which limits how much the Lightning can punish Detroit’s weak penalty kill. Even so, Tampa has scored 44 goals in 12 games, and Detroit has allowed 36 in 13 with goaltending that sits at .874 for its main starter.
No price had been posted when we published. If the moneyline opens below 1.45, our alternative is Tampa Bay in regulation time.
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