Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors – Free NBA Prediction

Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors: the league’s tightest defense ends a three-game Western trip in Denver

Scottie Barnes scored a career-high 41 points in Orlando on Friday night, on 19-of-34 shooting, and Toronto still lost 121-114. He went to the free-throw line three times. Orlando shot 29 free throws to Toronto’s 15, and Darko Rajakovic said afterwards that the officiating hadn’t applied the same standard at both ends.

That defeat came two nights after the Raptors had beaten the same Magic team 129-99 at home. Toronto is 3-2, and through its first four games it allowed 102.5 points a night, the fewest in the NBA. Orlando’s 121 pushed that average up to 106.2.

The Raptors are also without Kawhi Leonard for now. The team said on 27 October that he’d miss at least a week with swelling in his left knee, after he was a late scratch in Minnesota on 25 October. Tests showed no acute injury, but there’s no firm return date, and he’d played only two games, averaging 19.5 points on 32% shooting.

Denver hosts Toronto on Wednesday 4 November at Ball Arena, tip-off at 9:00pm ET. It’s the last stop of a Western swing for the Raptors, who play the Lakers on Sunday night and the Clippers on Monday night before flying to Colorado. The Nuggets host Portland on Monday and stay home.

We think the schedule decides this one more than the defensive numbers do. Three games in four nights at the end of a road trip is a heavy load for a team shooting 30.4% from three, and Denver’s two best players are both averaging more than 22 points. The Nuggets have also won their last two, both on the road.

Denver Nuggets: Jokić at 22.0, 10.5 and 9.0, and a 127-point night in Phoenix

Denver won 127-120 in Phoenix on Friday and moved to 3-2. It was the Nuggets’ second straight road win after a 104-91 result in New Orleans, and it came after a start that included an 84-96 loss in Oklahoma City and a 134-114 home defeat to Golden State.

Nikola Jokić is averaging 22.0 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.0 assists, and Jamal Murray leads the team in scoring at 22.5 points with 5.8 assists. David Adelman’s offense runs through that pair, and the next scorer on the list, DeMar DeRozan, averages 13.0.

The shooting is the weak part of Denver’s profile. The Nuggets made 45.8% from the field and only 32.8% from three across their first four games, and they averaged 110.8 points, 22nd in the league. Friday’s 127 lifted the scoring average to 114.0.

Aaron Gordon averages 12.3 points and 6.5 rebounds, and Christian Braun adds 11.5. Trevon Brazile contributes 7.5 rebounds per game. Denver averages 44.5 boards as a team, slightly behind Toronto’s 45.8.

The defense has been inconsistent. Denver allowed 135 to New Orleans at home and 134 to Golden State, but held the Pelicans to 91 a few days later. Over five games the Nuggets give up 115.2 points per night, and they’re 1-1 at Ball Arena.

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Toronto Raptors: 30.4% from three, and no Kawhi Leonard on the trip

Toronto’s defense has carried it. The Raptors held Chicago to 92 on opening night, Washington to 102 and Orlando to 99 in the first meeting. The one heavy defeat before Friday was a 117-94 loss in Minnesota, the game Leonard missed as a late scratch.

RJ Barrett leads the team at 22.0 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Barnes was averaging 19.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists before his 41 in Orlando, and Immanuel Quickley adds 17.5 points and 5.5 assists from the point.

The three-point shooting is a problem Toronto hasn’t solved. The Raptors hit 30.4% from deep across their first four games, and they also shot 44.2% from the field. They’ve stayed productive with 14.3 offensive rebounds a game, which gives them second chances to cover for the misses. At home they scored 135 against Chicago and 129 against Orlando; on the road the outputs were 112 in Washington, 94 in Minnesota and 114 in Orlando.

Ja’Kobe Walter averages 13.3 points per game, and Jamal Shead adds 4.3 assists. Jakob Poeltl averages 2.8 points and 4.5 rebounds, which leaves Collin Murray-Boyles, at 5.0 rebounds, as part of the frontcourt rotation that will have to deal with Jokić.

Leonard’s one-week minimum from the 27 October announcement runs out the day before this game. Even if he’s cleared, he was shooting 32% in his two appearances, and Toronto has gone 1-2 in the three games without him.

Probable lineup Denver Nuggets: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Toronto Raptors: Not announced at time of publication

Free NBA Prediction: Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors

Our prediction: Denver Nuggets -3.5 (handicap)

We’re backing Denver to win by four or more. Toronto arrives on its third game in four nights, at altitude, after a back-to-back in Los Angeles. A team shooting 30.4% from three needs fresh legs more than most, and the Raptors won’t have them.

Toronto’s defense is the best argument against this pick, and it has held three of five opponents under 103. But Jokić and Murray are combining for 44.5 points a game, and the Nuggets have scored 104 or more in four of five, including 127 in Phoenix on Friday.

Lines for Wednesday weren’t published at the time of writing. We’d play Denver on the handicap up to -5.5, and we’d want to check Leonard’s status on the day before staking it.

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