- 1 New York Rangers vs St. Louis Blues: 18 goals allowed in three games, and a Blues power play at 25.7%
- 2 New York Rangers: Fox’s 16 assists, and 1-4-1 since 13 October
- 3 St. Louis Blues: Snuggerud’s seven goals, and a Hofer-Binnington split that isn’t close
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: New York Rangers vs St. Louis Blues
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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- 11 About visuals
New York Rangers vs St. Louis Blues: 18 goals allowed in three games, and a Blues power play at 25.7% 
Dylan Garand has played ten of the Rangers’ 14 games. He’s 4-5-1 with a 2.69 goals-against average and an .899 save percentage, and he’s had the job since Igor Shesterkin hurt his right knee in Washington on 9 October. The Rangers announced the next day that Shesterkin would miss the rest of the season.
New York was 6-2 on 13 October. Since then it’s 1-4-1, and the last three defeats came by scores of 5-4 against Toronto, 7-4 against Ottawa and 6-3 against Los Angeles. That’s 18 goals allowed in three games.
St. Louis arrives with its own uneven record. The Blues are 6-6-1 and fifth in the Central, and their last two weeks went from a 6-2 win over Vegas to back-to-back shutout defeats, 4-0 against Carolina and 2-0 in Montreal, then a 4-1 win over Boston on 29 October.
The game is on Tuesday 3 November at Madison Square Garden, puck drop at 7:00pm ET. The Rangers host Edmonton on Sunday evening first. The Blues played a Saturday afternoon game in Detroit and have no game scheduled between that one and this trip to New York.
We don’t trust either defense enough to expect a low-scoring game. The Rangers have allowed five or more in four of their last six, and St. Louis has scored five or more three times this season, with a power play converting at 25.71%.
New York Rangers: Fox’s 16 assists, and 1-4-1 since 13 October 
Adam Fox leads the Rangers with 17 points, 16 of them assists. Alexis Lafrenière has nine goals and 16 points, and he’s the one forward Mike Sullivan can count on for goals; nobody else on the roster has more than five.
Mika Zibanejad has 11 points and J.T. Miller 10, with Tye Kartye matching Miller at 10. Gabriel Perreault has four goals among his seven points. The Rangers score 3.14 goals a game and allow 3.00.
The 7-1 defeat to New Jersey on 15 October started the slide. A 1-0 overtime loss to Columbus followed, then a 5-2 win over Anaheim, before the three straight defeats in which the Rangers conceded five, seven and six. Across the last six games they’ve given up 28 goals. They scored four against Toronto and four against Ottawa and still lost both.
The special teams numbers point the other way. New York’s penalty kill is at 90.48%, and the power play converts 21.05%, 8 of 38. If St. Louis wants to get its power play going, it’ll be against a unit that has given up very little.
Shesterkin went 3-1-0 with a 1.79 average and a .927 save percentage before his injury. The drop to Garand’s .899 explains a lot of what has happened since, and backups Spencer Martin and James Reimer have each been beaten heavily in brief appearances.
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St. Louis Blues: Snuggerud’s seven goals, and a Hofer-Binnington split that isn’t close 
Joel Hofer has played nine games and Jordan Binnington four, and the numbers explain why. Hofer is 5-3-1 with a 2.24 average and a .923 save percentage. Binnington is 1-3-0 with a 4.11 average and an .846 save percentage.
Jimmy Snuggerud leads the Blues with seven goals, and he plays on a line with Robert Thomas and Jake Neighbours. Thomas has nine points, mostly assists, and Neighbours has four goals. Mason McTavish centers the second group with six goals and 10 points, supported by Pavel Buchnevich.
Dylan Holloway tops the team in points with 11, eight of them assists, and Philip Broberg has nine points from the blue line. Jim Montgomery’s team scores 3.00 goals a game and allows 2.92, and the power play has converted 9 of its 35 chances.
The swings have been sharp. St. Louis scored seven against Ottawa and six against Vegas, but it was also shut out by Carolina and Montreal in consecutive games, and Colorado beat it 6-1 on 3 October. The win over Boston on 29 October came after the two blanks, and the other big nights included a 4-0 win over Dallas on opening night and 5-3 against Columbus.
The Blues were slight favourites in Detroit on Saturday afternoon, and New York is the second stop of that trip. They’re 3-3 in their last six, a stretch that includes both of those shutout defeats.
Probable lineup New York Rangers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup St. Louis Blues: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: New York Rangers vs St. Louis Blues
Our prediction: Over 5.5 goals
We’re backing six goals or more. Nine of the Rangers’ 14 games have gone over 5.5, including the last three at 9, 11 and 9 total goals. St. Louis has gone over the same number in seven of its 13, and both teams are allowing close to three goals a night.
The Rangers’ penalty kill, at 90.48%, is the main reason this could stay under. But with Garand at .899 and the Blues spreading their goals across Snuggerud, McTavish and Neighbours, we don’t need the power play to land the bet.
Totals for Tuesday hadn’t been posted at the time of writing. If the line opens at 6.5 instead of 5.5, we’d stay away; at 5.5, we’d want a price of 1.80 or better.
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