- 1 Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks: 127 or more allowed in four of five games, and a trip to TD Garden
- 2 Boston Celtics: Tatum at 28 points and 8 assists, and Pritchard’s 48 points in two Chicago games
- 3 Milwaukee Bucks: Herro scoring 23.4 a night for a defense ranked 28th
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks: 127 or more allowed in four of five games, and a trip to TD Garden 
Milwaukee has given up at least 127 points in four of its first five games. Washington scored 128 on opening night, Chicago put up 132 in the home opener, Philadelphia reached 127 and Houston finished with 132 at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday. The Bucks sit 28th in the league at 124.2 points allowed per game.
The only exception was a 110-102 home win over Indiana on 26 October, which remains Milwaukee’s only victory. The Bucks are 1-4 under Taylor Jenkins, and both road games so far ended in double-digit defeats: 128-116 in Washington and 127-116 in Philadelphia.
Boston hosts them on Wednesday 4 November at TD Garden, tip-off at 7:30pm ET. The Celtics are 4-1, and their one defeat came on opening night in Detroit, 121-113. Since then they’ve beaten New York, Chicago twice and Brooklyn.
The schedule in between matters. Boston plays in Orlando on Sunday afternoon and in Houston on Monday night, so it arrives home after a road back-to-back with one day to recover. Milwaukee hosts Cleveland on Saturday night and plays in Minnesota on Monday, a game every other night before this one.
We’ve weighed both of those trips, and the gap in defensive quality between these rosters still points one way. Boston allowed 111.8 points a game across its first four, 12th in the league, while Milwaukee has been closer to the bottom than the middle on that end since the first week.
Boston Celtics: Tatum at 28 points and 8 assists, and Pritchard’s 48 points in two Chicago games 
Jayson Tatum is averaging 28.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists, and on Friday he added 26 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in a 125-point night against Chicago. Most of that damage came going to the rim. Boston took 17 shots at the rim in the first half of that game and made 14 of them.
Paul George has given Joe Mazzulla a second creator. He’s averaging 22.3 points and 6.0 rebounds, and Friday’s line of 18 points, eight assists and three steals showed the defensive side too. Two of those early steals turned into five quick points as the Celtics built a lead that reached 32.
Payton Pritchard does his damage off the bench. He scored 30 against the Bulls on Friday, most of them before half-time, and he’d already put up a big night against the same team on Monday. Across the two games he totalled 48 points in 37 minutes.
Boston’s shooting numbers back up the eye test. The Celtics are making 46.5% from the field and 38.6% from three, and after Friday they’re scoring 120.8 points a game. Derrick White adds 12.5 points and 6.3 assists, and Sam Hauser is chipping in 9.8 a night as the spacer in the corner.
The one soft spot is the frontcourt rotation. Mitchell Robinson starts and averages 5.5 points and 4.8 rebounds, while Neemias Queta was pulled after about a minute of the third quarter on Friday after giving up two straight offensive rebounds. Milwaukee’s bigs will get chances on the glass.
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Milwaukee Bucks: Herro scoring 23.4 a night for a defense ranked 28th 
Tyler Herro carries this offense. In his first season with Milwaukee he’s averaging 23.4 points and 4.6 assists, and he scored 23 again in Wednesday’s 132-100 home defeat to Houston. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the second option at 17.8 points and 7.2 rebounds.
The Houston game was the clearest picture of the problem. Milwaukee trailed only 23-21 after the first quarter, then the Rockets opened the second with eight straight points and the Bucks scored 14 in the quarter. It was 57-35 at half-time and 132-100 at the end.
The shooting doesn’t give Milwaukee much margin for error either. The Bucks hit 44.9% from the field and 34.0% from three, which works out to 113.4 points a game, 18th in the league. That’s roughly 11 points a night less than they’re conceding.
Kel’el Ware is the one Bucks player who can make Boston pay inside. He averages 11.8 points and 8.4 rebounds, and Kyle Kuzma adds 8.0 rebounds from the forward spot. Myles Turner has been quieter at 6.6 points and 4.8 boards.
The ball-handling behind Herro is shared. Ryan Rollins averages 11.6 points and 4.4 assists, and Kasparas Jakučionis has 9.0 points and 4.2 assists. No Bucks player carried an injury designation going into Saturday’s game against Cleveland, which Milwaukee entered as an 8.5-point underdog at home.
Probable lineup Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jordan Walsh, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Mitchell Robinson
Probable lineup Milwaukee Bucks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks
Our prediction: Boston Celtics -7.5 (handicap)
We’re backing Boston to win by eight or more. Milwaukee has lost both road games by 11 and 12 points, and its defense has conceded 127-plus in four of five games. Boston’s offense, scoring 120.8 a night on 38.6% from three, is the type that has punished the Bucks all season.
The road back-to-back in Orlando and Houston is the one factor against us, but the Celtics get Tuesday off before this game. Milwaukee plays three times in five nights, and its one win came at home against an Indiana team, not on the road against a 4-1 contender.
Wednesday’s lines hadn’t opened at the time of writing. We’d take the Celtics on the handicap up to -8.5; beyond that number, the moneyline doesn’t pay enough to be worth it.
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