- 1 Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves: the first trip to Toyota Center without Anthony Edwards
- 2 Houston Rockets: 51.7% from the field, and Şengün’s status the one question
- 3 Minnesota Timberwolves: 51.6 rebounds a game, and LaMelo Ball running the offense
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves: the first trip to Toyota Center without Anthony Edwards 
Anthony Edwards scored 47 points in Cleveland on 26 October, in a game Minnesota lost 127-125. Two days later the Timberwolves learned he needed arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, and the expected absence is up to two months. He was averaging 33.3 points on 48.1% shooting and 40.0% from three when he went down.
Minnesota’s first game without him was a rout. The Wolves beat the Clippers 127-101 at Target Center on Friday, a 26-point margin, and moved to 4-2. Donte DiVincenzo is also out after Achilles surgery, so Chris Finch is short two of his guards.
Houston is 5-1 and first in the West. The Rockets opened with five straight wins, including a 132-100 rout in Milwaukee, before losing 116-111 in Dallas on Friday. Ime Udoka’s team scores 121.0 points a game and allows 110.0.
The game is on Wednesday 4 November at Toyota Center, tip-off at 8:30pm ET. It’s the third of three straight home games for Houston, after Oklahoma City on Saturday and Boston on Monday. Minnesota plays in San Antonio on Saturday and hosts Milwaukee on Monday before flying south.
Both teams have travelled well. Houston has won at San Antonio 114-110, at Atlanta 121-114 and at Milwaukee 132-100, while Minnesota’s road wins came in Miami, 131-106, and Orlando, 115-93.
We think Friday’s win over the Clippers flatters what Minnesota can do away from home without its leading scorer. Houston is shooting 51.7% from the field and 40.4% from three, and it has the size to deal with the one area where the Wolves are clearly better.
Houston Rockets: 51.7% from the field, and Şengün’s status the one question 
Alperen Şengün leads Houston at 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game. He missed the win in Milwaukee and was listed as questionable for Saturday’s game against Oklahoma City, so his availability is the first thing to check on Wednesday afternoon.
Houston coped without him in Milwaukee. Fred VanVleet scored 24, including 15 straight Rockets points during the third quarter, and Amen Thompson added 23. Thompson is averaging 18.2 points and 8.0 rebounds.
Kevin Durant gives Udoka a third scorer at 22.4 points and 6.2 rebounds. Jabari Smith Jr. adds 16.2 a night, and Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason both average more than 10. Seven Rockets average double figures, which is why the offense held up with Şengün out.
The rebounding numbers are where the Rockets give ground. They average 45.0 boards with 11.6 offensive, against Minnesota’s 51.6 and 14.4. Steven Adams was listed out going into the weekend and Marcus Smart questionable, so the frontcourt depth behind Şengün is thinner than usual.
Friday’s loss in Dallas was Houston’s first, and it came on the opening night of a back-to-back. The Rockets are 2-0 at home so far, beating Dallas 128-110 and Atlanta 120-110, and they won’t travel again before this game.
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Minnesota Timberwolves: 51.6 rebounds a game, and LaMelo Ball running the offense 
Minnesota leads this matchup on the glass. The Timberwolves average 51.6 rebounds per game, 14.4 of them offensive, and Rudy Gobert is pulling down 12.2 a night on his own. Joan Beringer adds 7.6 rebounds a game behind him.
Without Edwards, the scoring has to come from somewhere else. Jaden McDaniels is the leading available scorer at 15.8 points and 6.6 rebounds, and Terrence Shannon Jr. averages 14.2. LaMelo Ball runs the offense with 13.4 points and 6.6 assists, and Ayo Dosunmu adds 13.0.
Jonathan Kuminga gives Finch another wing at 13.2 points a game. Minnesota scored 120.4 points a game across its first five, and Friday’s 127 lifted that to 121.5 without Edwards on the floor. The Wolves shoot 38.4% from three as a team, and that figure was built partly on Edwards’ 40.0%, so the volume from deep will need to come from Ball, Shannon and Dosunmu.
The defense has been strong. Minnesota allows 106.7 points a game after holding the Clippers to 101 on Friday, and it beat Miami by 25 and Orlando by 22 on the road in the first week.
The road trip to Houston comes at the end of a stretch of three games in five nights. Minnesota is 2-1 on the road this season, and the one defeat was that 127-125 game in Cleveland, when Edwards scored 47.
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Minnesota Timberwolves: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Our prediction: Houston Rockets -4.5 (handicap)
We’re taking Houston to win by five or more. The Rockets have seven players averaging double figures, they shoot 51.7% from the field and they’re at home with a day off beforehand. Minnesota’s best shot-maker is out for up to two months and its second guard, DiVincenzo, is also missing.
Minnesota’s rebounding edge is real, and a 26-point win over the Clippers shows the defense still works without Edwards. But that game was at Target Center, and Houston’s 51.7% shooting is a different test from a Clippers team that scored 101.
If Şengün is ruled out again, we’d still hold the pick, given how the Rockets scored 132 in Milwaukee without him. Wednesday’s lines weren’t available at the time of writing; we’d play Houston on the handicap up to -6.5, and we’d check the final injury report for Şengün, Smart and Adams before tip-off.
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