- 1 AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: no Vinícius in Athens, and Courtois a doubt
- 2 AEK Athens: 17-0 in four home league games, eight conceded on two European trips
- 3 Real Madrid: five straight wins, but a goal conceded in every Champions League game
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: AEK Athens vs Real Madrid
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: no Vinícius in Athens, and Courtois a doubt 
Vinícius Júnior won’t be in Athens. The Brazilian is suspended until 8 November, so Real Madrid travel to AEK without him, and Thibaut Courtois is doubtful with an illness.
Kick-off at the Allwyn Arena is 17:45 UK time on Wednesday 4 November, in matchday 4 of the Champions League league phase.
Real Madrid arrive on five straight wins in all competitions. The latest came at Barcelona on 25 October, where Kylian Mbappé scored the 87th-minute winner in a 2-1 victory and ended Barcelona’s run of nine consecutive wins.
AEK’s home league record is the number we kept returning to: four Super League games at the Allwyn Arena, four wins, 17 goals scored and none conceded. Europe has been far harder. They lost 3-1 at Shakhtar Donetsk and then 5-1 at Manchester City on 20 October, conceding eight goals in two away games.
The clubs have met twice before, both times in the 2002/03 Champions League group stage, and both games were draws: 3-3 in Athens on 2 October 2002 and 2-2 in Madrid.
AEK Athens: 17-0 in four home league games, eight conceded on two European trips 
The 5-0 win over Panetolikos, opened by Harold Moukoudi after four minutes, kept AEK’s home league record perfect. No visiting side has scored a league goal at the Allwyn Arena this season.
The Champions League has been a different test for the defence. At the Etihad, Stavros Pilios pulled it back to 2-1 before Phil Foden completed a hat-trick in a 5-1 defeat, and the previous European trip ended 3-1 to Shakhtar.
Last Wednesday’s Greek Cup tie at Toumba went the same way. Luka Jović equalised five minutes after half-time, then PAOK scored twice from the 70th minute to win 3-1.
Domestically AEK are third, four points behind Panathinaikos, who also have a game in hand. They visit the leaders on Sunday, three days before Real Madrid arrive.
Thomas Strakosha is ruled out with a wrist injury. Over their last five matches in all competitions, AEK have won two and lost three, with both wins coming at home in the league against OFI Crete and Panetolikos.
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Real Madrid: five straight wins, but a goal conceded in every Champions League game 
Real Madrid have won all three league-phase games and scored ten goals in them, but they’ve conceded in each one.
At Roma on 14 October they trailed 3-1 and won 4-3, scoring three times in the last eight minutes. A week later they beat RB Leipzig 4-1 at home, with Arda Güler, Mbappé and Yan Diomande among the scorers.
The wider run is just as productive. A 1-0 win over Villarreal, 4-1 against Sevilla and the 2-1 at Barcelona sit alongside those two European wins, which makes 15 goals across five matches.
The absences are significant. Vinícius is suspended, Rodrygo is out until late December with a cruciate ligament injury and Raúl Asencio isn’t expected back before January. Ferland Mendy has returned to training after a ligament problem.
Real host Racing Santander on Sunday, three days before the trip to Greece. Courtois’s illness is the main fitness question before the squad travels.
Probable lineup AEK Athens: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Real Madrid: Not announced at time of publication
Free Champions League Prediction: AEK Athens vs Real Madrid
Our prediction: Both teams to score (odds 1.62)
We’re backing both teams to score at 1.62. Real Madrid have conceded in all three league-phase games, including three at Roma, and they travel without Vinícius and possibly without Courtois.
AEK’s 17-0 home league record works against this pick, and Real are rightly priced at 1.33 to win. But AEK scored at both Shakhtar and Manchester City while losing heavily, and Jović found the net at Toumba on Wednesday.
Real have scored 15 goals in their last five games, with Mbappé on target against Leipzig and Barcelona. We expect them to score in Athens, and we expect AEK to get at least one in front of their own supporters.
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