- 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons: a team that hasn’t won at home all season, against Penix’s Falcons
- 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the third-best ground game in the NFL, and the 31st-ranked passing efficiency
- 3 Atlanta Falcons: nine touchdowns and one interception since Michael Penix Jr. took over
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons: a team that hasn’t won at home all season, against Penix’s Falcons 
Tampa Bay is 0-4 at Raymond James Stadium this season and averages 17 points a game there. All five of its losses have come by one score, and the Buccaneers are 1-5 in games decided by eight points or fewer.
Atlanta visits on Sunday 1 November, kickoff 1:00pm ET, with the home side a 2.5-point favorite and a total of 45.5. The line opened at 1.5, with the Falcons at 2.17 on the moneyline and Tampa Bay at 1.83, and it has drifted toward the Bucs since.
The move follows Tampa Bay’s 43-13 win at Carolina last weekend, built on 258 rushing yards from 49 carries. Atlanta’s own result was arguably better: a 29-20 home win that handed San Francisco its first loss of the season.
This NFC South series rarely gets away from either side. The last six meetings have all been decided by six points or fewer, by an average of 3.7, and Atlanta has won three of the last four, including a 29-28 game in Tampa last December.
So the Bucs are laying points at a stadium where they haven’t won this season, against a division rival that keeps beating them by a field goal. I want a very good reason to back that, and the injury report doesn’t give me one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the third-best ground game in the NFL, and the 31st-ranked passing efficiency 
Tampa Bay runs for 146.4 yards a game, third in the league, and Bucky Irving carries most of that load with 558 yards and four touchdowns on 120 attempts. Against Carolina the Bucs handed off so often that Baker Mayfield threw only 11 passes.
Mayfield completed seven of them for 64 yards and a touchdown in his return from a dislocated right thumb that cost him three games. His season line reads 68 of 107 for 679 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Jalon Daniels filled in while he was out and threw five interceptions in 98 attempts.
Through the air this team is near the bottom of the league. The Buccaneers rank 31st in passing efficiency per throw, their passer rating is 73.6 and they net 150.4 passing yards a game. Emeka Egbuka, one of their two leading receivers with 28 catches, is questionable with a concussion.
The defense is what keeps Tampa Bay in games: it ranks third in EPA allowed per play, gives up 77.3 rushing yards a game and has found its pass rush lately, with 10 sacks in the last two games after six in the first five. Jacob Parrish leads the NFL with 11 passes defensed.
Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (ribs) and tackle Luke Goedeke (calf) are both questionable, and linebacker Christian Rozeboom and receiver Jalen McMillan are on injured reserve. Todd Bowles has a fit defense to work with and a thin passing game around a quarterback just back from three missed games.
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Atlanta Falcons: nine touchdowns and one interception since Michael Penix Jr. took over 
Michael Penix Jr. has thrown nine touchdown passes and one interception since taking the job in Week 3. Against San Francisco he went 25 of 34 for 213 yards and three scores, and he was pressured on 8.8% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate of his career.
Kevin Stefanski’s offense has averaged 31 points over its last five games, including 45 in New Orleans. Bijan Robinson has 704 rushing yards, Drake London has 616 receiving yards on 38 catches, and Atlanta has produced around 0.11 expected points per play since Penix took over, a top-10 rate.
Kyle Pitts is the player I’d watch on Sunday. He has 629 career receiving yards against Tampa Bay, and in last December’s 29-28 win at Raymond James he caught 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns. He has four touchdowns in Atlanta’s last three games.
The run defense lines up well against Tampa Bay’s strength. Atlanta allows 88.9 rushing yards a game, fourth-fewest in the league, and ranks fifth against the run by EPA. If Irving can’t find room, the Bucs are left asking a rusty Mayfield to win the game with his arm.
Atlanta has weak spots of its own: the Falcons are 23rd in sack rate allowed, their turnover differential is minus 3, and five players are questionable: Brian Robinson Jr., Olamide Zaccheaus, Avieon Terrell, Billy Bowman Jr. and Divine Deablo. Two of those are cornerbacks, which matters less against an offense this reluctant to throw.
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Baker Mayfield, RB Bucky Irving, WR Chris Godwin Jr. (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Penix Jr., RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
Our prediction: Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (1.89)
I’m backing Atlanta with the points. The Falcons have the better quarterback on current form, the higher passer rating (87.9 against 73.6) and a run defense built to take away the one thing Tampa Bay does well.
The history of this series points the same way. Six straight meetings decided by six or fewer, three Atlanta wins in the last four, and a home team that is 0-4 at its own stadium: a 2.5-point line asks the Bucs to break two patterns at once.
Tampa Bay’s pass rush, with 10 sacks in two games, is the obvious danger to Penix behind a line that ranks 23rd in sack rate. A 49% chance of rain in Tampa makes a low-scoring grind possible, and that makes the extra points more valuable rather than less.
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