- 1 San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves: a rested Spurs team, and Minnesota without Anthony Edwards on a back-to-back
- 2 San Antonio Spurs: 17 threes and 35 assists against Sacramento after an 0-2 start
- 3 Minnesota Timberwolves: 105.0 points allowed, and 33.3 points a night to replace
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves: a rested Spurs team, and Minnesota without Anthony Edwards on a back-to-back 
Anthony Edwards was averaging 33.3 points a game and led the league with 18 made threes when Minnesota learned he needs arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. He scored 45 on opening night in Miami and 47 in an overtime loss in Cleveland on Monday, and he’s now expected to miss up to two months; the injury list has him out until at least 21 December.
His first trip to San Antonio this season would have been on Saturday 31 October, tip-off at 8:00pm ET at Frost Bank Center. Instead the Timberwolves arrive without him for the first of four meetings with the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in May.
That series went 4-2 to San Antonio. Minnesota won Game 1 104-102 on the road, then lost Game 2 by 38 and Game 5 by 29, and Stephon Castle scored 32 in a 139-109 Game 6 win in Minneapolis. The Spurs went on to beat Oklahoma City 111-103 in Game 7 of the West finals before losing the NBA Finals 4-1 to the Knicks.
The schedule tilts toward San Antonio as well. Minnesota hosts Golden State on Wednesday and the Clippers on Friday, then flies south for the second night of a back-to-back, its third game in four days. The Spurs played Sacramento on Tuesday and Utah on Wednesday and then get two full days off.
Records point the other way, at least for now. Minnesota is 3-1, with the only defeat that 127-125 overtime game in Cleveland, while the Spurs are 2-2 after losing their first two at home.
Chris Finch’s team has also been the stingier of the two. Minnesota allows 105.0 points a game; San Antonio allowed 112.0 through its first three games.
San Antonio Spurs: 17 threes and 35 assists against Sacramento after an 0-2 start 
San Antonio’s start was slow. Oklahoma City won 116-104 on opening night, Houston won 114-110 three days later, and only after that did Mitch Johnson’s team find a rhythm, winning 122-106 in Dallas and 130-103 against Sacramento on Tuesday.
The Kings game was the first time the offense looked like last season’s. The Spurs made 17 of 37 threes, a season high, and finished with 35 assists. Julian Champagnie came off the bench for 26 points on 8-of-13 shooting from deep.
Victor Wembanyama had his most efficient game of the season in the same win: 29 points and 10 rebounds on 14-of-21 shooting. Before that he’d been averaging 20.0 points and 11.0 rebounds on 36.5% shooting, and his best defensive night came in the opener, with six blocks against the Thunder.
Through three games, Dylan Harper averaged 20.0 points, Castle 19.3 and De’Aaron Fox 17.3 with 8.3 assists, and Castle opened the season with 24 points and five threes against Oklahoma City.
Tobias Harris is a game-time decision with a calf problem and Jayden Quaintance is out until at least 3 December with a knee injury. Before the Kings game the Spurs were shooting 31.9% from three, so the question for Saturday is whether Tuesday’s shooting was a turning point or a single good night.
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Minnesota Timberwolves: 105.0 points allowed, and 33.3 points a night to replace 
Minnesota’s defense has been the reason for the 3-1 start as much as Edwards. The Timberwolves beat Orlando 115-93 and Toronto 117-94, and they’re allowing 105.0 points a game.
Rudy Gobert is averaging 14.3 rebounds and had 20 in the overtime loss in Cleveland. He’s scoring only 8.0 points a game, and his value on Saturday depends on how well he keeps Wembanyama off the offensive glass.
LaMelo Ball, acquired from Charlotte in the summer deal that sent Julius Randle and Naz Reid the other way, is averaging 14.8 points and 6.3 assists in 24.8 minutes. Jaden McDaniels is at 15.0 points on 59.1% shooting and Jonathan Kuminga at 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds, and all three are expected to take on a larger share of the scoring.
The minutes Edwards leaves behind will go to Ayo Dosunmu, who’s averaging 12.0 points in 26.3 minutes, Terrence Shannon Jr. (13.0 points), Bones Hyland and Isaiah Evans. Donte DiVincenzo is out until April with an Achilles injury, which removes another guard from the rotation.
Two numbers could hurt Minnesota more without its best shot creator. The Timberwolves turn the ball over 17.5 times a game and shoot 60.7% from the free-throw line. They’re still 39.9% from three as a team, but 18 of those makes belonged to Edwards.
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama
Probable lineup Minnesota Timberwolves: LaMelo Ball, Ayo Dosunmu (projected in place of Anthony Edwards), Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Rudy Gobert
Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs on the handicap (-5.5)
Minnesota’s defense is the reason not to expect a blowout. A team allowing 105 a game, with Gobert protecting the paint, can drag a game into the 100s, and the Spurs were still 1-2 before their Tuesday win.
The rest of the picture favors San Antonio clearly. The Timberwolves lose 33.3 points a game from their lineup, play their third game in four nights and their second in two, and face a Spurs team that beat them four times in six playoff games in May, three of those wins by 29 points or more.
I’d play the Spurs to cover a 5.5-point handicap rather than the moneyline, which is likely to be too short to be worth taking. Lines for Saturday weren’t posted at the time of writing.
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