- 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: 122.2 points allowed by Milwaukee, against a Cleveland team on its third game in four nights
- 2 Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Herro’s 23.5 points, and a rebounding edge they keep giving back
- 3 Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell at 26.7 points, and late-game answers from Harden
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: 122.2 points allowed by Milwaukee, against a Cleveland team on its third game in four nights 
Milwaukee has allowed 122.2 points a game this season, and three of its first four opponents scored at least 127. Washington put up 128, Chicago 132 and Philadelphia 127, all of them Bucks defeats, before Indiana was held to 102 on Monday.
That 110-102 win over the Pacers came from behind. Milwaukee trailed by 11 at halftime and outscored Indiana 60-41 after the break, which spared the franchise its first 0-4 start since 1976-77. Fiserv Forum was less than a third full, because the Brewers were playing Game 3 of the World Series across town.
Cleveland visits on Saturday 31 October, tip-off at 8:00pm ET (7:00pm local). It’s the first of four meetings this season and the first since the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sent the two-time MVP and Bobby Portis to Miami in exchange for Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis and draft picks.
The Cavaliers go into Wednesday at 2-1 under Kenny Atkinson. They blew a 24-point halftime lead in a 114-106 loss in Philadelphia on opening night, then beat Brooklyn 125-121 and Minnesota 127-125 in overtime, coming back from 15 down against the Timberwolves.
The schedule is the part that favors Milwaukee. Cleveland hosts Washington on Wednesday and plays in Atlanta on Thursday, so Saturday is its third game in four nights, even with Friday off. Taylor Jenkins’ Bucks host Houston on Wednesday and then get two days of rest.
Cleveland won last season’s series 3-1. Milwaukee’s only win was 118-116 at home in February, and the Cavaliers won 123-116 in the most recent meeting at Fiserv Forum on 17 March.
Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Herro’s 23.5 points, and a rebounding edge they keep giving back 
Tyler Herro has been the center of the new Milwaukee offense. He’s averaging 23.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists, and against Indiana he had 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists on 7-of-14 shooting.
Kel’el Ware has made the bigger impact off the bench. He’s averaging 13.3 points and 8.5 rebounds on 56.8% shooting and had 16 points and 14 rebounds against the Pacers, his second straight double-double. Myles Turner starts at center and is blocking 2.8 shots a game, with four on Monday.
The rest of the scoring is spread out. Jaquez is averaging 17.5 points and 8.0 rebounds, Ryan Rollins 13.5 points with 19 against Indiana, and Kyle Kuzma 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds after a 4-of-6 night from three on Monday. Rookie Nate Ament broke an 86-86 tie early in the fourth quarter with a dunk.
Milwaukee averages 52.0 rebounds a game, second in the league, which is how it has stayed in games despite the defense. The Bucks also turn it over 17.5 times a game, and their defensive rating of 117.3 sits well behind their 112.0 offensive rating.
No Bucks player was on the injury report going into Wednesday. Caris LeVert and Gary Trent Jr. both sat out the Indiana game as coach’s decisions on Monday, along with Bogoljub Markovic and Jericho Sims.
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Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell at 26.7 points, and late-game answers from Harden 
Donovan Mitchell is averaging 26.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists. Against Minnesota he scored 26, 17 of them in the second half and overtime, and hit the go-ahead fadeaway in the extra period.
James Harden made the play that got Cleveland there. He hit the tying runner with 10.4 seconds left in regulation, finished with nine assists and made the free throws that closed it out. His season line is 15.7 points and 7.0 assists.
Evan Mobley is averaging 18.7 points and 9.3 rebounds and had 18 points, 10 rebounds and four threes against the Timberwolves. Jarrett Allen adds 15.0 points and 8.0 rebounds, and Peyton Watson had three steals and four blocks in the same game, including a late block on Anthony Edwards, who scored 47.
Cleveland’s opening night in Philadelphia is the warning sign: the Cavaliers led by 24 at halftime and lost by eight. They’re allowing 120.0 points a game, 20th in the league, while turning the ball over 18.7 times. They haven’t covered a spread yet this season.
Khalifa Diop is out with a knee injury until at least 2 November and Nae’Qwan Tomlin until at least 16 November with a stress reaction in his lower back. Rookie Meleek Thomas scored 16 in 19 minutes against Minnesota and could get more minutes on the second leg of a busy week.
Probable lineup Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Herro, Ryan Rollins, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner
Probable lineup Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Our prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Fatigue is the obvious argument for Milwaukee, and I take it seriously: Cleveland will have played Wednesday and Thursday, and the Bucks will be on two days’ rest at home. Milwaukee’s size on the glass could also hurt a Cavaliers team that averages 47.0 rebounds to the Bucks’ 52.0.
Cleveland still has the better players at the end of games, and Mitchell and Harden decided the Minnesota game between them. Milwaukee’s defense has allowed at least 127 points in three of four games, and the Cavaliers score 119.3 a night and shoot 36.6% from three.
Cleveland also won three of four meetings last season, including the most recent one in Milwaukee. Odds for Saturday weren’t posted at the time of writing; the pick is Cleveland to win.
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