- 1 Frosinone vs Lecce: a promoted side in sixth, against an opponent they haven’t beaten since 2020
- 2 Frosinone: three home wins in a row, all of them built on a half-time lead
- 3 Lecce: two away wins, five absentees and a forward line still short of goals
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Frosinone vs Lecce
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Frosinone vs Lecce: a promoted side in sixth, against an opponent they haven’t beaten since 2020 
Frosinone scored four times in Bergamo on Sunday and still didn’t win. Rolf Schmid put them ahead after a minute and again on 17, Gennaro Calo made it 3-3 just after half-time, and a late equaliser on 82 minutes rescued a 4-4 draw against Atalanta.
That point keeps Massimiliano Alvini’s side sixth in Serie A with 14 points from eight games, four wins, two draws and two defeats. For a club that came up from Serie B in the summer, it’s a start few would have predicted in August.
Lecce visit the Stadio Benito Stirpe on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 17:30 UK time, in the last game of the midweek round. Eusebio Di Francesco’s side are 12th on nine points, with three wins and five defeats, and they lost 2-0 at home to Juventus on Sunday.
The head-to-head is the one place where Lecce look the stronger side. Frosinone haven’t beaten them in six meetings across Serie A and Serie B since December 2020, with three Lecce wins and three draws, including a 1-1 in Frosinone in March 2024.
The bookmakers aren’t paying much attention to that history. Frosinone are 1.70 to win, the draw is 4.00 and Lecce 4.75.
I’d side with the market here, and the reason lies in how differently the two teams have looked away from their own grounds and inside them this season.
Frosinone: three home wins in a row, all of them built on a half-time lead 
Frosinone lost their opening home game 1-0 to Juventus. Since then they’ve won all three league matches at the Stirpe, 3-2 against Venezia, 2-0 against Como and 4-2 against Sassuolo, and they were ahead at half-time in each of them.
Antonio Raimondo is the main reason. His seven league goals, including a hat-trick against Sassuolo on 16 October, meant nobody in Serie A had more going into last weekend, and he leads the line on his own in Alvini’s 4-2-3-1.
Sunday showed the goals don’t depend on him alone. Raimondo didn’t score in Bergamo, yet Frosinone found the net four times, through Schmid twice, Calo and a late equaliser, with Fares Ghedjemis setting up two of them from the right.
Away from home they’ve been just as productive. A 3-0 win at Fiorentina, a 1-1 draw at Genoa and Sunday’s 4-4 mean Frosinone have scored in six of their seven league games since the opening defeat, with Napoli the only side to keep them out.
The defence is a different matter. Frosinone conceded four at Atalanta and three at Napoli on 10 October, the only league defeat since the opening weekend, so quality opponents have been able to hurt them.
Lecce aren’t in that bracket on current form. The team news is simple for Alvini as well: Florian Grillitsch is still recovering from hernia surgery, and no other absences have been reported.
That leaves Alvini free to name the side that has started his recent league games, with Palmisani in goal, Masini and Calo in midfield and Kvernadze on the left behind Raimondo.
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Lecce: two away wins, five absentees and a forward line still short of goals 
Lecce’s season splits neatly into two kinds of game. They’ve beaten Venezia 2-0 away, Monza 3-2 at home and Udinese 3-0 in Udine. Against everyone else they’ve lost, including 4-0 at home to Roma, 3-0 at AC Milan and 2-1 at home to Bologna.
The away form is better than the overall record suggests. Two of their four league trips have ended in wins, and the defeats came at Cagliari, by a single goal, and at San Siro.
Di Francesco’s problem this week is the size of the absence list. Lamine Coulibaly, Ivan Ilic, Medon Berisha and Santiago Pierotti are all out, and Gaspar is suspended, which removes a defender, three midfielders and one of the wide forwards from Thursday’s squad.
There’s one return to soften the blow, with Monteiro available again. The bigger concern is up front, where William Geubbels is still waiting for his first goal for the club, and Coulibaly, joint top scorer on two league goals, is among the absentees.
Lecce have scored nine league goals in eight games, and eight of them came in the three wins. In the five defeats they’ve managed one, a consolation against Bologna, and they’ve failed to score in the other four.
Sunday’s defeat to Juventus fitted the pattern exactly: Lecce didn’t score, and the margin was two goals.
Probable lineup Frosinone: Palmisani; Oyono, Cittadini, Monterisi, Bracaglia; Masini, Calo; Ghedjemis, Schmid, Kvernadze; Raimondo
Probable lineup Lecce: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Frosinone vs Lecce
Our prediction: Frosinone to win @ 1.70
Frosinone have won three home league games in a row, led at half-time in all three, and they have Raimondo, whose seven league goals led the division going into the weekend. Lecce come to the Stirpe without Coulibaly, Ilic, Berisha, Pierotti and the suspended Gaspar, and they’ve failed to score in four of their five defeats.
The head-to-head is the honest argument against the pick: six meetings without a Frosinone win since 2020. But four of those six were in Serie B, and the most recent was two and a half years ago, long before Alvini’s current squad came together.
Lecce’s two away wins came at Venezia and Udinese, two sides in the bottom half. Frosinone at home are a different level of opponent, and I’d back the home side to win at 1.70.
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