- 1 Fiorentina vs Atalanta: two leaky defences, and a home side that keeps finding the net
- 2 Fiorentina: five league games in a row with a goal, and not one clean sheet
- 3 Atalanta: four centre-backs missing and three away defeats in a row
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: two leaky defences, and a home side that keeps finding the net 
Fiorentina were winning at San Siro when the 90 minutes ran out on Sunday. Jiménez had put them ahead in the second half, and then Marcus Thuram and Piotr Zielinski scored in stoppage time to give Inter a 2-1 win and leave Paolo Vanoli’s side with nothing.
That defeat leaves Fiorentina 18th in Serie A with four points from eight games: one win, one draw and six defeats, with a goal difference of minus ten. It’s their third league defeat in a row, after a 2-1 loss at Genoa and a 3-1 home defeat to Como.
Atalanta come to the Artemio Franchi on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 19:45 UK time, sitting 11th on ten points. Maurizio Sarri’s side have spent the week recovering from an eight-goal afternoon: a 4-4 draw at home to Frosinone in which they led 3-2 at half-time and 4-3 five minutes after the break.
The context explains why neither team has been able to protect a lead. Fiorentina have conceded in every league game this season, and Atalanta have let in seven goals in their last two, with four first-choice centre-backs unavailable.
Florence has generally suited the home side in this fixture. Since 2015, Fiorentina have won six of their league meetings with Atalanta at the Franchi, drawn four and lost two, and the most recent one, in May, finished 1-1.
The prices: Fiorentina 2.20, the draw 3.40, Atalanta 3.30. I don’t trust either side enough to back them to win, but the goals market makes a much clearer case.
Fiorentina: five league games in a row with a goal, and not one clean sheet 
Fiorentina’s problem is the defence. They’ve conceded at least once in all eight league matches, at an average of more than two a game, and the 3-0 home defeat to Frosinone showed how badly things can go when the shape breaks.
The attack is in better shape than the table suggests. Fiorentina have scored in five consecutive Serie A games, including the 1-1 draw with Napoli in September and the opening goal at Inter on Sunday.
The goals are shared around. Franco Mastantuono leads the way with three, and Jiménez and Pellegrino have two each, so Vanoli isn’t relying on one player to carry the scoring.
The injury list matters at the back. Luca Ranieri and Arthur Atta were training on their own last week and were expected to miss the trip to Milan. If either is still out, Vanoli loses a defender and a midfielder from a side that already struggles to protect its own box.
The Como defeat on 18 October is the one that worries me most from a Fiorentina point of view. They conceded three at home to a side that beat Torino 6-0 last season, then two more in stoppage time at San Siro a week later.
The Franchi hasn’t been much of a fortress. Frosinone and Como have both scored three there this season, and both left with comfortable wins, 3-0 and 3-1.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Atalanta: four centre-backs missing and three away defeats in a row 
Atalanta’s last three away league games have all ended in defeat: 2-1 at Roma, 2-0 at Juventus and 3-2 at AC Milan. Overall the season has produced three wins, one draw and four defeats.
The defensive crisis has made things worse. Giorgio Scalvini, Isak Hien, Odilon Kossounou and Sead Kolasinac were all ruled out before the weekend, which forced Sarri into a back four with Kristensen and Obric in the middle.
That reshuffled defence conceded four at home to a promoted side on Sunday. Rolf Schmid scored twice inside 17 minutes, and Frosinone came back twice after falling behind.
The attack has kept its end up. Nikola Krstovic scored twice against Frosinone and leads the club with six league goals, while Ederson has two, and Atalanta have scored nine times in their last three league games.
Europe has added to the load. Atalanta lost 2-0 at Ajax in the Conference League on 22 October without managing a shot on target, and Thursday’s trip to Florence is their third game in eight days.
Sarri also had midfield doubts to manage last week, with Franck Kessie a major doubt with a calf strain and Kamaldeen Sulemana and Giacomo Raspadori unavailable.
Probable lineup Fiorentina: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Atalanta: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Our prediction: Both teams to score @ 1.50
Fiorentina have scored in five consecutive league games and conceded in all eight. Atalanta have scored nine in their last three league matches and conceded seven in their last two, with Scalvini, Hien, Kossounou and Kolasinac all missing from the back line.
The one argument for a tighter game is the last meeting at the Franchi, a 1-1 in May, and the fact that both coaches may set up more cautiously after conceding late on Sunday. That still produced a goal for each side, which is all this pick needs.
Krstovic has six league goals and Fiorentina have spread theirs across Mastantuono, Jiménez and Pellegrino. I’d expect both to find a way through two defences that haven’t kept a clean sheet between them in recent weeks, and I’d take both teams to score at 1.50.
in your pocket.
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