- 1 Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys: two 2-4 teams and an Eagles offense down to its third-choice receivers
- 2 Philadelphia Eagles: Tanner McKee’s second start, with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks both ruled out
- 3 Dallas Cowboys: 31st in rushing yards, and 899 conceded on the ground in six games
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys: two 2-4 teams and an Eagles offense down to its third-choice receivers 
Philadelphia rushed for 22 yards in one of the two games Saquon Barkley missed and 35 in the other. Barkley is listed as questionable for Monday night after a full practice on Saturday, and his hamstring is now the biggest variable in a game where the Eagles have already lost their starting quarterback and their top two receivers.
Kickoff at Lincoln Financial Field is set for 8:15pm ET on Monday 26 October, closing out Week 7. Both teams are 2-4. Since Week 2, Dallas and Philadelphia have gone a combined 1-7, and the New York Giants sit on top of the NFC East at 4-2-1 after winning in Houston on Sunday.
The market moved hard once Jalen Hurts went on injured reserve with blood clots. The offseason line had Philadelphia as a 3-point favorite, and the lookahead reopened it at Eagles -1. Dallas then opened at -1.5 for this week before the number settled at -4.5. The total went the other way, from 47.5 down to 44.5.
It’s Philadelphia’s fourth straight game as an underdog and its third time this season getting points at home. The Eagles have lost four in a row: 24-20 to the Rams, 19-17 to Jacksonville, a seven-point output against Chicago and 25-14 at home to Carolina last Sunday.
Dallas arrive on a two-game skid of their own. The Cowboys scored 29 points across losses to Tampa Bay and Green Bay, the second a 23-13 defeat to the Packers, and turned the ball over five times in those two games. We think both offenses are in worse shape than a 44.5 total suggests.
Philadelphia Eagles: Tanner McKee’s second start, with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks both ruled out 
Tanner McKee completed 26 of 45 passes for 215 yards and one touchdown against Carolina. Philadelphia finished that game with 222 total yards, 187 through the air and 35 on the ground, and scored 14 points in its own building.
His receiving corps for the second start is thinner still. DeVonta Smith (hamstring, 310 yards in four games) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle, 284 yards) are both out after missing practice all week. Dallas Goedert has no injury designation after returning to full practice on Saturday, and Darius Cooper has turned 15 targets into four touchdowns.
The offensive line has changed too. Lane Johnson retired a few games into the season, Cam Jurgens was traded to Baltimore, and Landon Dickerson is questionable with knee and pectoral injuries. Hurts’ recovery timeline likely keeps him out for the rest of the year, and running backs Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley are also on injured reserve.
Barkley’s two healthy games produced 165 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per carry, without a touchdown. He hasn’t played since getting hurt in the Week 4 loss to the Rams. If he sits, Dameon Pierce would take the lead role in the backfield.
The defense has held up better than the offense. Philadelphia ranks 13th in yards per carry allowed, Jalen Carter has three sacks and Jihaad Campbell leads the team with 47 tackles. Edge rusher Nolan Smith (concussion) and Michael Carter II (abdomen) are out, while Jonathan Greenard, Jalyx Hunt and Jordan Davis are all questionable.
Across six games the Eagles average 17.7 points, 255.5 yards and 82.2 rushing yards. Those averages include the Hurts starts, so the current version of this offense sits below all three.
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Dallas Cowboys: 31st in rushing yards, and 899 conceded on the ground in six games 
Javonte Williams has seven rushing touchdowns, but his yards per carry has dropped from 4.8 last season to 3.7. Dallas ranked 31st in the league in rushing yards after Week 6, and head coach Brian Schottenheimer has conceded that the offense has become one-sided without a run game.
That puts the load on Dak Prescott. He’s completed 163 of 246 passes for 1,639 yards, with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, and he’s started every game. CeeDee Lamb has 48 catches for 577 yards and four touchdowns on 69 targets, while George Pickens has added 428 receiving yards.
The early-season Cowboys could score. They beat Washington 37-20 and Houston 34-30, and lost 34-31 in Baltimore. Since then the output has dropped to 16 points against Tampa Bay and 13 against Green Bay.
The defense hasn’t fixed last season, when Dallas conceded more points than any team in the NFL. Opponents have run for 899 yards through six games, close to 150 a week, and receivers have found plenty of room against this secondary. Caleb Downs leads the team with 43 tackles and Quinnen Williams has two sacks.
The Dallas injury report is far lighter than Philadelphia’s. Return man KaVontae Turpin, linebacker Dee Winters and tackle Drew Shelton are in doubt, and DeMarvion Overshown is still working back toward a return. At 2-4, a loss would drop a team that was billed as a Super Bowl contender this summer to 2-5.
Probable lineup Philadelphia Eagles: QB Tanner McKee; RB Saquon Barkley (questionable) or Dameon Pierce; TE Dallas Goedert; WR Darius Cooper, Makai Lemon. Out: Jalen Hurts (IR), DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Nolan Smith.
Probable lineup Dallas Cowboys: QB Dak Prescott; RB Javonte Williams; WR CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens. In doubt: KaVontae Turpin, Dee Winters, Drew Shelton.
Free NFL Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
Our prediction: Under 44.5 points (1.83)
Over the last two weeks the Eagles have scored 21 points and the Cowboys 29. Philadelphia now goes into a second McKee start without its two leading receivers, its starting right tackle or its starting center, and Dallas have scored 13 and 16 since their 34-31 shootout in Baltimore. We’d need to see a lot more from either offense before backing 45 points.
The case against us is the Dallas run defense. At close to 150 rushing yards conceded a game, it’s exactly the kind of unit a healthy Barkley can hurt, and the Cowboys allowed more points than anyone last season. Even so, a Philadelphia game plan built on handing the ball off with a backup quarterback shortens the game, and that suits the under.
The total has already dropped from 47.5 to 44.5, and we still think it’s too high at 1.83. Dallas -4.5 at 1.87 is a reasonable second option, but five turnovers in two weeks make us reluctant to lay points with the Cowboys on the road.
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